Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 2 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 5, 2024
It’s only Week 2. We’re just getting started.
But at least five games this week look likely to end up counted among the most notable of the regular season, statewide, when all is said and done Oct. 26. Another handful could eventually determine league championships, if past history holds again.
We’re back to our regular schedule, with six games played Thursday night, the great majority tonight and seven games set for Saturday. All listed below are today unless noted, and scores will be updated throughout the weekend on the MHSAA Scores page.
Bay & Thumb
Armada (1-0) at Croswell-Lexington (1-0) WATCH
The Blue Water Area Conference schedule begins tonight, and Croswell-Lexington owns a 19-game winning streak against Armada after claiming last year’s meeting 53-28. But the Tigers are coming off a third-straight winning season, and a third-straight victory last week over perennial power Marine City – and a historic Armada win tonight would throw a wrench into the Pioneers’ plans to take back the BWAC for the first time since 2021.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Haslett (0-1) at Fenton (1-0), Goodrich (0-1) at Linden (0-1) WATCH, Saginaw Heritage (1-0) at Midland Dow (0-1), SATURDAY Harbor Beach (1-0) at Marine City Cardinal Mooney (0-1).
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (1-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-0)
This might be one of the most anticipated games statewide this year, not just one of the best of the week in Metro Detroit. The 2023 Division 2 runner-up Pilots began their pursuit of a fourth-straight trip to the Finals with a stunning defensive effort and 21-3 win over Davison last week. King is attempting to get back to the Finals this fall for the third time in four seasons after ending their run in the Division 3 Semifinals a year ago, and the Crusaders opened with a 25-21 win over Ohio powerhouse Cleveland Heights. King and De La Salle last faced each other in a 2017 Semifinal.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (1-0) at Birmingham Groves (1-0) WATCH, Clarkston (0-1) at Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0) WATCH, Jackson Lumen Christi (1-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (1-0) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0) at River Rouge (1-0) WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (1-0) at Mason (1-0)
After falling to DeWitt five straight meetings over the eight seasons, Mason defeated the Panthers twice in 2023 – 42-23 during the regular season and 42-7 in a District Final – on the way to finishing Division 3 runner-up. The Bulldogs graduated nearly all of their starters from that run, but the new crew joined four-year starting quarterback Cason Carswell in downing Holt 26-7 to open this fall. DeWitt has nearly its entire lineup back from a year ago and also one of the top quarterbacks both in the Lansing area and statewide – Elliott Larner, who threw for four touchdowns and ran for four in the Panthers’ 69-42 win over Haslett.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lansing Catholic (1-0) at Lansing Sexton (0-1) WATCH, Olivet (1-0) at Portland (1-0), Hastings (1-0) at Williamston (0-1) WATCH, Bath (0-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (1-0) WATCH.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Kingsley (0-1) at Gaylord (0-1) WATCH
Forget for a minute that both fell in openers last week. Gaylord is coming off its best season since 2002 after finishing 11-1, and Kingsley is the reigning Division 6 champion with one of its two losses last fall in a 42-39 classic against the Blue Devils. Back to last week, Kingsley did lose 24-22 but it was a rematch of its 2023 Semifinal win over Reed City. Gaylord’s defeat came against longtime former league foe Traverse City West, but the defense that gave up only 14.5 points per game last season remained on point, allowing just six to the Titans.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (1-0) at Frankfort (1-0) WATCH, Boyne City (0-1) at Elk Rapids (1-0), Parma Western (1-0) at Traverse City Central (1-0) WATCH. SATURDAY Lawton (1-0) at Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Saline (1-0) at Dexter (1-0)
The Southeastern Conference Red season also begins tonight, and with the matchup that eventually determined last year’s league championship. That went to Saline, thanks to a 41-25 victory over Dexter, and the Hornets opened last week by doubling up Brighton 41-20. The Dreadnaughts actually come into this rematch on a higher note than a year ago after edging Livonia Franklin 27-26 last week, avenging their 33-27 loss to Franklin from last season’s opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Whitmore Lake (1-0) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (1-0), Addison (1-0) at Manchester (1-0) WATCH, Three Rivers (1-0) at Adrian (0-1) WATCH, Jonesville (1-0) at Napoleon (0-1).
Southwest Corridor
White Pigeon (1-0) at Buchanan (1-0) WATCH
More statewide fanfare should be given to White Pigeon’s fantastic run over the last three seasons, as the Chiefs went a combined 29-7 with three trips to Division 8 Regional Finals. They opened in dominant fashion 52-14 over Reading last week, but get a Buchanan team that also has been quietly solid with a combined 15-6 record over the last two seasons – and with two of last year’s defeats by seven points apiece. The Bucks opened last week with a 32-6 rumbling over Saugatuck, which avenged a 25-14 opening loss to the Trailblazers from a year ago.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Joseph (1-0) at Edwardsburg (1-0), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0) at Portage Central (0-1) WATCH, Battle Creek Central (0-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (1-0), Midland (1-0) at Portage Northern (0-1) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Calumet (1-0) at Ishpeming Westwood (1-0) WATCH
Both of these teams are looking for bounce-back seasons, and off on the right foot. Calumet went 3-6 a year ago, its first sub-.500 finish since 2013, but opened with a 50-0 shutout of West Iron County last week. Westwood won once in 2023, its fewest victories since going 2-7 in 2016, but opened last week with a 36-12 win over Bark River-Harris, which finished 5-4 a year ago and defeated the Patriots 50-14 to start last season. Calumet defeated Westwood in last season’s matchup 42-22.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hancock (1-0) at Menominee (1-0) WATCH, Iron Mountain (1-0) at Bark River-Harris (0-1) WATCH, Houghton (0-1) at Kingsford (1-0) WATCH, Gladstone (0-1) at Negaunee (1-0) WATCH.
West Michigan
Muskegon (0-1) at Rockford (1-0) WATCH
West Michigan has several intriguing matchups this week, especially in places with new coaches this fall. But this one always will rise to the highest level of statewide interest. Rockford won their season-opening clash last year 27-7, and Muskegon actually started last year 0-2 before winning 12 straight games and the Division 2 title. Both programs surely benefit greatly from these mega matchups early, and that’s key perspective as the Big Reds also opened this season with a loss, 28-13 to Zeeland West. Rockford is a combined 32-3 over the last three seasons and may be on the verge of something even bigger this fall after defeating Detroit Cass Tech 30-23 in their opener.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY East Kentwood (1-0) at Byron Center (1-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (1-0) at East Grand Rapids (1-0) WATCH, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (1-0) at Jenison (1-0), Caledonia (1-0) at Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (0-1) WATCH.
8-Player
Martin (1-0) at Bridgman (1-0)
With Martin the reigning two-time Division 1 champion, and Bridgman building a combined 35-game winning streak going back to 2020 (but with an enrollment too large to compete in the 8-player playoffs), it’s safe to say these have been two of the elite handful of teams in the state to start this decade. And their matchups have been must-see; Bridgman won 35-34 in 2022 and 14-12 last season. Although Bridgman also faces 2023 Division 1 runner-up Indian River Inland Lakes in Week 4, this could prove for both to be their biggest game of the regular season again.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Morrice (1-0) at Merrill (1-0) WATCH, Lake Linden-Hubbell (0-1) at Munising (1-0) WATCH. SATURDAY Newberry (0-1) vs. Climax-Scotts (0-1) at Gaylord, Marion (1-0) at Onekama (1-0) WATCH.
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PHOTO A Montague ball carrier attempts to break free last week from multiple Forest Hills Eastern defenders, including Jordan Shabazz (23). FHE won the opener 48-7. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)