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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Grand Blanc defenders converge on a Muskegon Mona Shores ball carrier during the Sailors' 28-26 win.

1st & Goal: 2024 Week 1 Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

September 3, 2024

Football is the only high school sport for which teams prepare an entire week to play just one game, and at most are guaranteed nine games each season.

MI Student AidThat being the case, every week contributes significantly to a team’s overall story. And we're thrilled to tell as many as possible again, starting with what struck us most from season openers this past holiday weekend.

This time, headliners included a pair of victories over 2023 Finals champions, and two of the highest-scoring games in MHSAA history. And those are just a few of the notables from this first chapter, as we restart our weekly "1st & Goal" series to highlight several of the results that especially jumped off the page.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 22, Goodrich 0 After falling to the Martians on a last-minute score to start the 2023 season, Frankenmuth avenged by handing Goodrich its first regular-season shutout since 2018. Logan Diener led the Eagles’ defensive effort with 15 tackles and two sacks, and Kobbi Ke outran Goodrich as a team 117 yards to 54. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Fenton 28, Midland Dow 14 The Tigers also opened last season with a win over Dow, by two points, on the way to a Flint Metro League title – and this victory was even more impressive with quarterback Noah Sheil starring.

On the move Harbor Beach 24, Cass City 22 (OT) These two finished a combined 17-5 last year, and Harbor Beach extended its winning streak against the Red Hawks to three this weekend with an overtime defensive stand. Saginaw Heritage 48, Mount Pleasant 24 Despite graduating one of the most accomplished receivers in MHSAA history, Heritage raced to a second-straight win over the Oilers, who won a league title a year ago. Armada 28, Marine City 27 This ending was unforgettable as well, as both teams scored during the final two minutes, Armada first and then Marine City on a kickoff return – but the Tigers stopped the ensuing two-point conversion try.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Belleville 35, Clarkston 28 Belleville quarterback Bryce Underwood started one of the nation’s most anticipated senior seasons running for 177 yards and two scores and throwing two touchdown passes. His 55-yard TD sprint with 18 seconds left was the game-winner at the Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic. Click for more from the Detroit Sports Commission.

Watch list Warren De La Salle Collegiate 21, Davison 3 In another premier Xenith matchup at Wayne State, the 2023 Division 2 runner-up Pilots avenged last season’s 31-26 loss to Davison by dealing the Cardinals their first single-digit scoring day since 2021.

On the move West Bloomfield 42, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 0 The Lakers left no doubt in this rematch of annual powers, impressing even more after winning last season’s matchup with the Big Reds by just a point. Lake Orion 21, Northville 13 These were both 10-game winners a year ago, and Lake Orion is back on course after last season’s lone loss came by a point in its District Final. Riverview Gabriel Richard 15, Montrose 10 Gabriel Richard began building on last season’s trip to the Division 8 Semifinals by holding on against a Rams team that reached the Division 7 Regional Finals in 2023.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Lansing Everett 28, Lansing Sexton 0 Everett ended a two-game losing streak against its rival in a big way, shutting out a Sexton offense that scored 30 points per game last season and putting up 28 on a Sexton defense that gave up that many only once a year ago. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list East Lansing 31, Portage Central 7 Much is expected of the Trojans this season, and they showed why immediately in this matchup of 2023 league champions. East Lansing shut down a Central offense that averaged nearly 32 points per game last year.

On the move DeWitt 69, Haslett 42 These rivals ran right into the MHSAA record book combining for more than 100 points during one of the most high-scoring games of opening night, as the Panthers’ Elliott Larner and Vikings’ Kory Amachree combined to run for seven touchdowns. Pewamo-Westphalia 8, North Muskegon 7 The Pirates avenged their only two losses of a year ago (on opening night and then in a Regional Final) with a fourth-quarter touchdown and two-point conversion. Fowler 20, Hudson 6 Fowler also made some big-time small-school noise with this win over a Hudson program that was a combined 31-5 over the last three seasons.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ogemaw Heights 29, Ubly 13 Ogemaw is coming off its best season in over a decade, and it’s impossible to argue with this start against last season’s undefeated Division 8 champion. Ubly has some significant changes on offense as several standouts graduated, and is a much smaller school, but the Falcons still held the Bearcats to their lowest-scoring performance since 2021. Click for more from the Bay City Times.

Watch list Traverse City West 6, Gaylord 0 West avenged last season’s 13-7 loss to the Blue Devils, who are coming off a perfect regular season and league and District titles. The Titans are seeking their first winning season since 2021.

On the move Traverse City St. Francis 67, Charlevoix 22 After opening last season with a one-point win over the Rayders, St. Francis fell to them in their Division 7 District opener. This avenges that, but they could mean again. Elk Rapids 7, Benzie Central 2 This may seem more like a baseball score, and Elk Rapids will take it after losing this matchup 47-26 last season and missing the playoffs at 4-5 while Benzie qualified at 5-4. Petoskey 8, Greenville 6 Only a few points were scored in this one too, but Petoskey knows every one of them counts after making the playoffs at 5-4 as well last season.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Onsted 35, Napoleon 20 The Wildcats are seeking their first winning season since 2019 and finished 2-7 a year ago. But they’re halfway to equaling that total after a loud start, as Napoleon is coming off back-to-back league titles. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Ypsilanti Lincoln 10, Milan 7 The Railsplitters are seeking their first winning season since 2017 and won two games a year ago as well, but they are on the right path with this victory over a 2023 playoff qualifier.

On the move Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 22, Clinton 14 The Falcons bounced back from losing to Clinton by the same score in last season’s Division 7 District Final. Jackson Lumen Christi 49, Michigan Center 21 This matchup featured two of the Jackson area’s traditional best for the second-straight season, with the reigning Division 7 champion Titans again prevailing. Ann Arbor Pioneer 27, Adrian 17 The Pioneers avenged last season’s 36-30 loss to the Maples as they look to build on their winningest season since 2015.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Paw Paw 32, Big Rapids 14 Paw Paw won this opening matchup for the second season in a row and by an almost identical score as in 2023, when Big Rapids went on to win the Central State Activities Association Gold and the Red Wolves finished second in the Wolverine Conference. PJ DeYoung led the way this time with 203 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list St. Joseph 30, Niles 7 St. Joseph rebounded significantly after losing last season’s opener to Niles 55-0. The Bears took strides on both sides of the ball; Niles never scored fewer than 14 points in a game last season, and St. Joseph reached 30 only three times in 2023.  

On the move Hartford 55, Niles Brandywine 24 Hartford has a varsity team for the first time since 2021 and now its first win since 2019. Dowagiac 21, South Haven 11 Dowagiac last year posted its first winning season since 2019 despite a one-point loss to South Haven in their opener, and ending a three-game losing streak against the Rams over the weekend was another solid step. Buchanan 32, Saugatuck 6 Buchanan was another season-opening avenger, having fallen to Saugatuck 25-14 a year ago in what turned into a playoff season for both.

Marquette's Drew Bradley (6) breaks a tackle and gains several yards.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 55, Gladstone 0 Watch out for the Sentinels. Marquette had lost two in a row to Gladstone, including 36-7 a year ago, and hadn’t reached 50 points in a game since 2021. This also was Marquette’s first season-opening win in three years. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Ishpeming Westwood 36, Bark River-Harris 12 Westwood is coming off a pair of sub-.500 finishes after a string of much better ones, but breaking a two-game losing streak against Bark River-Harris could be the start of a turnaround. The Broncos had won last season’s matchup 50-14.

On the move Gwinn 14, Bridgeport 6 The Modeltowners are 1-0 for the first time since 2018 – the last time the team posted a winning record for the season. Iron Mountain 26, Houghton 16 The Mountaineers ran their winning streak against Houghton to three, but the Gremlins made this the closest matchup since their most recent victory over Iron Mountain in 2021. Kingsford 21, Escanaba 0 These two renewed this rivalry after a year ago, with Kingsford claiming its third-straight victory in the longtime series.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Zeeland West 28, Muskegon 13 This jumps off the page as Muskegon is the reigning Division 2 champion and won 12 straight games – including 22-16 over West – to close last season. But looking back further, it's fair to say the Dux have been on the verge; the Big Reds had won four of the last five matchups, but all of them were decided by eight points or fewer. This one, however, was a nonleague game as they are in separate divisions of the Ottawa-Kent Conference this fall for the first time since 2019. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.

Watch list Reed City 24, Kingsley 22 Not to be outdone, Reed City also defeated a reigning Finals champion, edging last year’s Division 6 title winner Kingsley with a touchdown and two-point conversion with one second to play. Kingsley had defeated Reed City 37-7 last fall to advance to Ford Field.

On the move Rockford 30, Detroit Cass Tech 23 These Division 1 powers met for the first time, and the next time could be with a championship on the line. Rockford held on with a late defensive stand. Hudsonville Unity Christian 43, Whitehall 21 Unity Christian is coming off its first sub-.500 season in a decade, which began with a loss to Whitehall – which went on to finish 10-1 last fall and is Unity’s only opponent from 2023 on this year’s schedule. Muskegon Mona Shores 28, Grand Blanc 26 Shores followed quarterback Jonathan Pittman across the state for an impressive win at the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic.

Otsego's Lane Blanchard breaks through an opening during his team's loss to Coopersville.

8-Player

HEADLINER Pickford 40, Powers North Central 12 Pickford dealt the Jets a season-opening defeat for the first time since 2018 as the two 8-player powers faced off for the first time since 2019. Both could again be in the championship mix in at the end of this fall; North Central made the Division 2 Regional Finals last season, and Pickford reached the Division 1 Semifinals. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Britton Deerfield 68, Pittsford 58 This tied for the 20th highest-scoring game in MHSAA 8-player history, with Britton Deerfield rebounding nicely off last year’s 2-7 finish to defeat a Pittsford team coming off a 7-3 run.

On the move Brimley 26, St. Ignace 0 The Saints stormed into 8-player last season with a 9-2 finish, but Brimley coming off a 3-6 run pulled off one of the stunners of Week 1 as it pursues a first .500-or-better season since 2019. Gaylord St. Mary 8, Rudyard 0 This was nearly an opposite of last season’s meeting; St. Mary’s won this time after Rudyard claimed last year’s 58-32. Atlanta 40, Rogers City 36 Atlanta closed last season 2-2 over its final four games and might be on the verge of another step forward with this first win over Rogers City after two losses in their previous two 8-player matchups – including 34-24 a year ago.

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PHOTOS (Top) Grand Blanc defenders converge on a Muskegon Mona Shores ball carrier during the Sailors' 28-26 win. (Middle) Marquette's Drew Bradley (6) breaks a tackle and gains several yards against Gladstone. (Below) Otsego's Lane Blanchard breaks through an opening during his team's 41-0 loss to Coopersville. (Top photo by Terry Lyons, middle photo by Cara Kamps and below photo by Gary Shook.)