Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
August 29, 2024
The captivating West Michigan sunset seen through the camera lens above is characteristic of the first few weeks of Michigan high school football season, when games begin in daylight before “Friday Night Lights” bring a later-night glow to communities all over both peninsulas.
That enchantment returns this weekend with 249 season openers tonight, 58 more Friday and one Saturday for the 603 varsity football teams set to play in our state this season.
More than 225 of those varsity games are scheduled to be broadcast this weekend on MHSAA.tv, including all four being played at Wayne State as part of the Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic and all four of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic being played at Grand Blanc High School today or Kettering University on Friday. Click the names of the events for specific broadcast landing pages for those showcases.
As you’ll find at the start of every football weekend, below are glances at several matchups across the state that are most intriguing. All games are tonight unless noted, and follow the MHSAA Scores page all weekend for scores as they’re submitted.
Bay & Thumb
Goodrich (11-2) at Frankenmuth (11-2) WATCH
This is a rematch of last season’s 14-8 Goodrich win, clinched on a score with 18 seconds to play. It was Frankenmuth’s only loss until the Division 5 Semifinals, and the Martians went on to make the Semifinals in Division 4. Big things are expected of both again, as both are ranked No. 3 in their respective divisions in preseason polls by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Harbor Beach (9-2) at Cass City (8-3) WATCH, Ogemaw Heights (9-2) at Ubly (14-0) WATCH, Muskegon Mona Shores (7-4) vs. Grand Blanc (6-5) WATCH, Almont (12-2) at Marysville (8-3).
Greater Detroit
Warren De La Salle Collegiate (11-3) vs. Davison (12-1) at Wayne State WATCH
This is another rematch from a year ago and the premier clash at the Xenith Prep Kickoff Classic. Last time, Davison trailed 14-0 at halftime before winning 31-26 – and the Cardinals weren’t stopped until the Division 1 Semifinals. De La Salle bounced back to take its season even farther, finishing at Ford Field for the fourth straight and this time as Division 2 runner-up. The Pilots are the favorites in the MHSFCA Division 2 poll, and Davison is ranked No. 5 in Division 1.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-3) at West Bloomfield (10-3) WATCH. FRIDAY Belleville (13-1) vs. Clarkston (6-6) at Wayne State WATCH, Redford Union (7-3) at Harper Woods (11-3), Dexter (7-4) at Livonia Franklin (6-4) WATCH.
Mid-Michigan
North Muskegon (12-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (10-2) WATCH
North Muskegon set the tone for its winningest season all-time last fall with a 17-14 win over the Pirates in the opener, and the Norsemen set the record with a 28-27 victory over P-W in a Division 7 Regional Final rematch before ending their run the next week. Those, of course, were the Pirates’ only losses of 2023, and they enter this fall No. 3 in Division 7 while North Muskegon is unranked.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Portage Central (8-2) at East Lansing (10-3) WATCH, Hudson (8-3) at Fowler (8-2), Lansing Sexton (8-2) at Lansing Everett (5-5) WATCH, DeWitt (7-3) at Haslett (8-4).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Reed City (9-4) at Kingsley (12-2)
Kingsley started its 2023 season with a 46-12 win over Reed City and ended the fall as Division 6 champion – a week after defeating Reed City again in a Semifinal 37-7. That alone should have the Coyotes revved for a big start this time, and after also closing last year with eight wins over their last nine games. Kingsley is ranked No. 2 and Reed City No. 8 heading into this meeting.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Gaylord (11-1) at Traverse City West (4-5) WATCH, Manistee (8-3) at Kalkaska (4-5). FRIDAY Elk Rapids (4-5) at Benzie Central (5-5), Charlevoix (9-2) at Traverse City St. Francis (4-5) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Gibraltar Carlson (10-2) at Carleton Airport (10-2)
After losing to Airport 31-10 in their season opener a year ago, Carlson went on to win its next 10 games and set a program record for victories to go with league and District titles. Airport’s finish, meanwhile, was its best since 2003 and included a District title as well. The winner tonight could attract some attention quickly; both enter this fall unranked by the MHSFCA.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Adrian (6-4) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (6-4) WATCH, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (6-5) at Clinton (10-2), Michigan Center (7-3) at Jackson Lumen Christi (13-1), Brighton (5-5) at Saline (9-2) WATCH.
Southwest Corridor
Niles (10-2) at St. Joseph (6-4), Friday WATCH
The Vikings’ 55-0 win over St. Joseph to begin last season set the pace for a record-setting run as well as they reached double-digit wins for the first time – and with their lone losses of 2023 by a combined eight points. Niles enters this season No. 6 in Division 4, but the unranked Bears no doubt would love to spoil things after rebounding from last year’s defeat to extend their playoff streak to nine straight seasons.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-4) at Battle Creek Lakeview (3-6) WATCH, Saugatuck (8-3) at Buchanan (7-4) WATCH, Union City (6-4) at Centreville (5-5) WATCH, Berrien Springs (6-4) at Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep (5-5).
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone (9-3) at Marquette (5-4)
These longtime past Great Northern Conference foes went their separate ways again a year ago, but met for a nonconference opener won by Gladstone 36-7 – and that gave Gladstone back-to-back wins in the near-annual series for the first time since 2008 and 2009. Although neither is ranked at the start of this season, both always are expected to be near the top in the Upper Peninsula.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ishpeming Westwood (1-8) at Bark River-Harris (5-4) WATCH, Escanaba (2-7) at Kingsford (10-2) WATCH, Iron Mountain (11-1) at Houghton (3-6). FRIDAY Marinette, Wis. (3-6) at Menominee (11-3).
West Michigan
Detroit Cass Tech (7-4) at Rockford (11-1) WATCH
This is another of the most anticipated matchups statewide this week, and this is the first time these teams will meet despite both being Division I championship contenders most of the last two decades. Rockford is ranked No. 2 in Division 1 after suffering its only loss last season against Davison in a Regional Final. Cass Tech is ranked No. 4 after ending last year’s run with a District Final loss to eventual champion Southfield Arts & Technology.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Paw Paw (9-2) at Big Rapids (10-2) WATCH, East Grand Rapids (7-3) at Lowell (6-4) WATCH, Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (7-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (13-1). FRIDAY Zeeland West (9-4) at Muskegon (12-2).
8-Player
Au Gres-Sims (7-3) at Alcona (8-2) WATCH
Alcona ended a two-game losing streak against the Wolverines last season while in the midst of a perfect run to the North Star League Big Dipper title. On the other sideline, that 42-12 loss was Au Gres-Sims’ first of the fall and started a 1-3 run to close the Wolverines’ season as they finished second in the NSL Little Dipper. They remain in different divisions and could both emerge as league champions over the next two months.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Gobles (8-3) at Colon (4-5), Gaylord St. Mary (6-3) at Rudyard (6-4), Climax-Scotts (10-1) at Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (6-3). FRIDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-3) at Newberry (7-3).
MHSAA.com's weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a division within the Department of Lifelong Education, Advancement, and Potential (MiLEAP). MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Click to connect with MI Student Aid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
(PHOTO by Tim Reilly.)