Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
In the Long Run: Only 15 Rushers Share State Record with 99-Yard Scoring Sprint
By
Steve Vedder
Special for MHSAA.com
August 26, 2024
Jakob Price remembers the defense forcing him into a subtle change of plans at the line of scrimmage, then about a dozen seconds later finishing his run into the MHSAA record book.
It's a rare story that only 15 football players in MHSAA history can tell, most involving similar circumstances. A couple of key blocks, the opening of but a sliver of a hole, a fortuitous breakdown on defense including a broken tackle or two, capped, in many cases, by simple luck.
When it comes to a rusher busting loose on a 99-yard run, there is much that has to fall into place. In the case of Price, a sophomore at Muskegon when he became the last player to make that rare record-tying dash on Oct. 8, 2021, it was all the above.
"I remember we ran what we called a "power 6" and I hit the line hard," Price said. "I saw that the hole off the center was clogged, and I thought I was going to get hit, but I made a move. Three guys had a shot at me, but someone took out the tackle with a block and I saw nothing but green. It was almost a safety, but then this hole opened up and I was gone."
In comparison, for instance, there have been 81 players who've thrown for at least six touchdowns in a game. But only 15 players in Michigan history have snatched a handoff and sped 99 yards to pay dirt. It's a wide cast of characters that stretches from one player who has played in 12 major league baseball games to another who collected three times as many receiving yards as rushing and whose previous longest run had been a modest 25.
The first 99-yard run chronicled in the MHSAA record book was by James Edington of Morrice, who raced 99 yards against Kingston on Oct. 29, 1999. Edington's run was one of his last during an outstanding four-year career that included being named all-state three times. He remembers the play, which came late in a playoff game, being an inside trap where he broke at least two tackles. Edington said the play wasn't designed for anything more than to keep the defense from notching a safety.
"I was just trying to get out of the end zone, get us some room," said Edington, who remembers having 4.7 speed in the 40-yard dash. "I remember it was at the end of the game and I was so tired. I was a two-way player who rarely came off the field. I know that in a 99-yard run the blocks have got to be there when the defense hits the box. I knew if I could just get past this linebacker, there was a lot of green grass in front of me."
Morrice, coincidentally, also is the only program to have a 99-yard runner in 8-player football. Morrice switched from 11 to 8-player with the start of the 2014 season, and Jake Rivers made the 99-yard sprint twice in 2015.
Saugatuck coach Bill Dunn is the only coach to have two players on the list, including his son Blake, on Sept. 25, 2015, against Decatur.
From a coaching standpoint, Bill Dunn said there is nothing like a crushing 99-yard burst to change a game's momentum. When a team is clinging to the ball at its 1-yard line, the possible outcomes are seemingly dark – from surrendering a safety to a punt that puts the opposition in prime position to score.
"A lot of things have to happen in a 99-yard run," Dunn said. "There can absolutely be luck. And it can be a backbreaker. You got a team at the 1-yard line, and the defense knows it's going to get good field position with a punt. But instead you get a guy who breaks one for 99."
Blake Dunn, now a prospect in the Cincinnati Reds system, was an all-state sprinter in high school as part of earning 16 varsity letters across four sports. Dunn said he made a "mid-line read" after the fullback dove into the line. The defense collapsed on him, Dunn cut back against the grain and was off to the races.
"Our fullback dove down the mid-line, and my read crashed down to him," said Dunn, whose 101 career touchdowns are fourth in state history while his 6,954 rushing yards rank eighth.
"When I followed my blocks through the hole, there was a bunch of open grass. I think there might have been a linebacker that almost tripped me up from the backside, but nobody was able to get me and then 99 yards later it ended in a touchdown. It was pretty cool fun in the moment and fun to look back on it now."
Kyle Raycraft of Frankenmuth made his 99-yard run against Caro on Sept. 5, 2003. Like many of his brethren’s stories, Raycraft, who remembers running for more than 200 yards and three or four touchdowns in the game, said the play came down to a couple of blocks, shaking off potential tacklers, and having daylight in front of him.
"I went up the middle and got good blocking at the line and broke a couple tackles," said Raycraft, also an all-state sprinter and currently an emergency room doctor in Sault Ste. Marie. "I really didn't think that much of it at the time. I think it got us the lead at a key time and that was exciting, but I didn't think it was so rare. There's been a lot of high school football and only (15) kids have done this, so that's a pretty short list."
Matthew Hoffman of Sanford Meridian, by his own admission, wasn't particularly fast. So speed played a minimal part in his run Sept. 11, 2015, against Beaverton.
Hoffman ran track in the spring, but not as a sprinter; he ran distances. His piece of football history was more a result of getting a couple of key blocks, breaking through the line, making a cut and finding running room along the sideline.
"I broke to the line and swerved to the left to the sidelines," said Hoffman, now a certified rescue boat operator working on the Gordie Howe International Bridge for the Bridging North America company. "I was quick and shifty and I'd get a few breakaways, but I wasn't fast. I think the defense was looking for me on the right side, and it was a counterplay to the left. The offensive line did a great job on that play.
"It was exciting, but (instead of records) it was more it just happened so quickly. People met me in the end zone after the play was over, but then we were just focused on defense and the next play."
Coleman's Mitch Franklin has another different slant on his 99-yard story. He was primarily a receiver who recorded 1,014 yards at that position as opposed to around 300 as a running back. But on Sept. 13, 2014, against Charlevoix, Franklin took advantage of a rare handoff after a quarterback sneak had netted virtually no gain on first down.
"Best blocking we had all year. A hole opened up, I stiff-armed a guy and just ran," said Franklin, a former Gladwin County sheriff’s deputy. "I remember I was fortunate to run on our right side where we had bigger guys. It was fortunate that we caught the defense off guard. I think it was about our first power run that game and a lot of fortunate things had to happen.
"One of the things I remember is our principal patting me on the back and telling me what a good run it was."
While the members of the select 99-Yard Club may have different memories as to how they successfully dashed from their team's 1-yard line into the other team's end zone, their goals were the same: Just somehow move their team from the shadow of their own goalposts into more favorable territory.
And one last goal, recalled Franklin.
"Hey, you just don't want to make that long drive home with a big, fat ‘L,’” he said. "You want to win the game. That's what was important."
The MHSAA is continuously adding to its record books, and there is no deadline for an accomplishment to be submitted. Find directions to do so and the football record books in full at this link.
PHOTOS (Top) Coleman's Mitch Franklin (right) turns upfield during a 99-yard scoring run against Charlevoix on Sept. 13, 2014. (Middle) Muskegon's Jakob Price (left) makes a move on the way to a 99-yard touchdown run against Muskegon Mona Shores in 2021. (Below) Saugatuck's Nick Stanberry breaks away for a 99-yard TD run against Kent City in 2018. (Photos provided by Franklin, Price and the Saugatuck football program.)