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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: Week 6 in Review

October 6, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There’s no pretending this football season hasn’t been a little different, for obvious reasons.

But every week seems to reintroduce something familiar – and looking at the statewide scoreboard after Week 6, it was the “first time since the last time” list.

If that’s a theme, Jonesville, Ann Arbor Huron, Centreville and Brimley are among the stars with accomplishments this week they hadn’t enjoyed in a while. Details are below as we take a glance again at the scores that jumped off the page most from the weekend’s action.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 34, Lapeer 16 The Bobcats (2-1) had lost both regular-season and playoff games to Lapeer the last two seasons, last year by 34 and 28 points, respectively. But they handed the Lightning (2-1) only its second defeat during the regular season over the last three seasons. Click below for more from WJRT.

Watch list North Branch 27, Croswell-Lexington 20 The Broncos (3-0) handed the Pioneers (2-1) their first loss, a week after avenging last year’s loss to Almont. Up next is Richmond, the only other team that defeated North Branch during the 2019 regular season.

Remember this one Hemlock 48, Midland Bullock Creek 32 The Huskies (3-0) still see Millington, and Millington still faces Bullock Creek (1-2), and it’s likely some combination of those results determines the Tri-Valley Conference West I champion.

More shoutouts Sanford Meridian 28, Harrison 8 The Mustangs (3-0) kept themselves in the hunt for the Jack Pine Conference championship, with Meridian, Harrison (2-1) and Beaverton all trailing league leader Clare by a win. Goodrich 42, Lake Fenton 27 The Martians (2-1) did the same in the Flint Metro League Stars, holding on just a game back of league leader Ortonville Brandon after delivering Lake Fenton (2-1) its first defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Clarkston 24, West Bloomfield 21 (OT) The Wolves showed they’re absolutely back after coming all the way back from a 21-7 deficit to edge the rival Lakers (2-1) in overtime. Clarkston (3-0) sits alone atop the Oakland Activities Association Red standings with as many wins as it earned all of last season. Click for more from the Oakland Press and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Canton 21, Brighton 20 Canton is off to its first 3-0 start since 2015 and leads the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after edging the reigning Division 1 runner-up Bulldogs (1-2).

Remember this one Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 42, Sterling Heights Stevenson 27 In the loaded six-team Macomb Area Conference Red, reigning champion Chippewa Valley (2-1) stopped previously-surging Stevenson (2-1) to create a four-way tie atop the standings.

More shoutouts Detroit Catholic Central 14, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 10 The Shamrocks (3-0) clinched a share of the Detroit Catholic League Central title, avenging last season’s 14-3 loss to the Pilots (1-2). Auburn Hills Oakland Christian 21, Whitmore Lake 7 The Lancers (3-0) sit atop the Michigan Independent Athletic Conference after finishing second to Whitmore Lake (1-2) a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 21, Lansing Catholic 7 The Raiders (2-1) saw an overall six-game winning streak against Lansing Catholic end in last season’s District Final as the Cougars went on to win Division 5. But Portland ran its regular-season winning streak against Lansing Catholic (2-1) to six in a matchup that put the Raiders in solid position to win the Capital Area Activities Conference White title. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights below from WLNS.

Watch list New Lothrop 44, Montrose 15 The Hornets (3-0) appear the team to beat again in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference after improving on last year’s win over reigning league runner-up Montrose (2-1) – although Durand also is unbeaten and will have a say.

Remember this one Fowlerville 17, Holt 14 Morgyn Muck’s 44-yard last-minute go-ahead field goals surely won’t be forgotten soon by the Gladiators (2-1).

More shoutouts East Lansing 17, Lansing Waverly 0 The Trojans have produced outstanding receivers before him, but Andrel Anthony Jr. is resetting all the school’s receiving records, including for career yardage in this win. Lake Odessa Lakewood 43, Stockbridge 26 The Vikings (2-1) set themselves up to face Olivet this week with a share of the Greater Lansing Activities Conference title on the line.  

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsley 36, Traverse City St. Francis 23 The Stags (3-0) took a major step toward repeating as Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends champions, as St. Francis (1-2) annually finishes among the top two in the division. Owen Graves piled up 287 yards rushing and scored four times for Kingsley. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Manistee 42, Harbor Springs 20 Manistee (3-0) tuned up well for this week’s Lakes 8 Athletic Conference decider against Muskegon Catholic Central, handing Harbor Springs (2-1) its first defeat.

Remember this one Traverse City Central 41, Cadillac 17 The first-place Trojans (3-0) now own wins over the two teams tied for second in the Big North Conference, Cadillac (2-1) and Traverse City West.

More shoutouts Evart 29, Houghton Lake 22 The Wildcats (1-2) celebrated their first win, knocking Houghton Lake (2-1) out of a tie for first in the Highland Conference. East Jordan 30, St. Ignace 6 The Red Devils (2-1) had lost all four previous meetings to the Saints since they joined the NMFC Legacy together. 

Southeast & Border 

HEADLINER Jonesville 44, Reading 18 There are plenty of impressive numbers coming off the weekend’s most surprising score. Jonesville (2-1) hadn’t beaten Reading since 2014, having lost the last two meetings with the Rangers by a combined 112-0. Reading (2-1) hadn’t lost a Big 8 Conference game since 2016, and only one other regular-season game over the last three seasons. This sets Jonesville up to compete with Week 9 opponent Homer for this year’s league title – although Reading faces Homer first in Week 8. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Watch list Blissfield 28, Clinton 14 The Royals (3-0) are alone atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association with wins over two of three second-place teams and the third, Brooklyn Columbia Central, not on the shortened schedule.    

Remember this one Ann Arbor Huron 18, Ann Arbor Pioneer 8 The Hurons (1-1) broke an 18-game losing streak to rival Pioneer (0-2) that went back to 2002.

More shoutouts Sand Creek 50, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 14 The Aggies’ first win over Whiteford since 2011 kept Sand Creek (3-0) tied for first in the Tri-County Conference. Chelsea 42, Schoolcraft 21 Scheduled after two other cancelations, this last-minute matchup pitted teams both often among the highly-ranked in their divisions.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Centreville 36, Cassopolis 7 The Bulldogs (3-0) not only scored their first points on Cassopolis since 2015, they defeated the Rangers (2-1) for the first time in 10 recent meetings. Cassopolis also hadn’t lost a league game since 2017. Centreville will play co-leader Mendon this week for a share of the Southwest 10 Conference championship. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

Watch list Buchanan 31, Berrien Springs 15 The Bucks (3-0) have equaled last year’s win total and with another victory will guarantee their best finish since 2016. Buchanan had lost the last three Berrien Springs matchups by a combined 127-0.

Remember this one Constantine 55, Watervliet 6 The Falcons (2-1) locked up a Watervliet offense that had scored a combined 107 points in two wins to start the fall.

More shoutouts Paw Paw 49, Sturgis 0 The Trojans (2-1) have put themselves back in the football conversation in the Wolverine Conference, but Paw Paw (3-0) made sure the title talk still centers on itself and Week 9 opponent Edwardsburg. Kalamazoo United 44, Parchment 6 The Titans (3-0) remain in position to challenge for a third-straight Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore title.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Gladstone 28, Sault Ste. Marie 26 The has been a whirlwind start for Gladstone, which didn’t play in the opening “Week 4” and then defeated Negaunee by two Week 5 on just a few days of prep. And now, this past weekend, the Braves (2-0) edged a Sault Ste. Marie team (2-1) that appeared to be the U.P.’s best after its first two victories. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Marquette 10, Kingsford 0 The Redmen (2-1) ran their winning streak over Kingsford (2-1) to three and sit in good position to win the Great Northern Conference, with Menominee – which Marquette beat by 23 in Week 4 – up next. 

Remember this one Negaunee 29, L’Anse 6 The Miners (2-1) bounced right back after a two-point loss to Gladstone two weeks ago.

More shoutouts Manistique 12, Bessemer 0 The Emeralds (1-2) picked up their first win of the season with their first defensive shutout since 2012. Bark River-Harris 43, Norway 12 The Broncos (1-2) also earned their first victory, putting up a big number after scoring a combined six points over the first two weeks.

West Michigan 

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Cedar Springs 28 The rebuilt Ottawa-Kent Conference this fall placed GRCC – coming off five straight league titles, most recently in the Blue – in the Gold with two-time reigning White champion Cedar Springs (2-1). Undefeated Grand Rapids South Christian still must face both, but the league race appears down to those three and with the Cougars and Sailors tied for the lead. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Byron Center 35, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 14 The Bulldogs (3-0), along with Lowell, have emerged as the frontrunners in the O-K White, with Forest Hills Central (2-1) and East Grand Rapids one game behind.

Remember this one Grand Rapids Union 59, Wyoming 57 Union’s 45-game losing streak, going back to 2015, came to an end in a game with so many points scored it will be included in the MHSAA record book at the end of the season.

More shoutouts Zeeland West 34, Zeeland East 14 With a third-straight win over the Chix (2-1), the Dux (3-0) moved into first place in the O-K Green with Muskegon Mona Shores. Grandville 21, Hudsonville 17 The Bulldogs (3-0) share the lead in the O-K Red with Rockford after breaking a two-game losing streak against the Eagles (2-1).

8-Player

HEADLINER Gaylord St. Mary 54, Whittemore-Prescott 18 The Snowbirds (3-0) topped 50 points for the third time in three games, this time against a first-year 8-player program that had given up a combined 44 points over its first two weeks. St. Mary is averaging 55 points per game and certainly provided the Cardinals (2-1) their toughest 8-player challenge so far. Click for more from the Iosco County News-Herald.

Watch list Adrian Lenawee Christian 55, Climax-Scotts 8 Lenawee Christian continued its impressive start in 8-player, handing former 11-player foe Climax-Scotts (2-1) its first defeat of the fall and improving its scoring margin for the season to 141-14.

Remember this one New Buffalo 28, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 26 The Bison (3-0) have gone from contributing players to Bridgman as part of a cooperative team in 2018 to winning one game in its first season of 8-player a year ago, to putting together one of the strongest starts of 2020.

More shoutouts Brimley 42, Engadine 30 The Bays (1-2) broke a 15-game losing streak against Engadine and after falling 66-8 in last year’s meeting. Cedarville 32, Rapid River 20 The Trojans (2-1) had lost their three most recent games with Rapid River (2-1) by eight or fewer points each time.

PHOTO: Negaunee's Lukas Nelson (25) finds a brief opening Friday before L'Anse closes it up. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)