Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Performance: River Rouge's Mareyohn Hrabowski

December 6, 2019

Mareyohn Hrabowski
River Rouge junior – Football

The Panthers’ multi-talented quarterback has become the state’s most-discussed emerging star from last weekend’s MHSAA 11-Player Football Finals after leading River Rouge to an arguably unexpected 30-7 win over Muskegon in the Division 3 championship game. Hrabowski ran 15 times for 175 yards and three touchdowns and completed 6-of-12 passes for 45 yards more in leading the Panthers to their first Finals title in the sport, earning the MHSAA “Performance of the Week.” 

For the season, Hrabowski ran 115 times for 1,175 yards (10.2 per carry) and 14 touchdowns and completed 78 of 108 passes for 1,045 yards and 11 scores with only two interceptions. In making its second trip to the Finals, River Rouge set a program wins record finishing 13-1 with its only loss in Week 1, by three, to eventual Division 4 champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central. The Panthers also outscored their five playoff opponents by an average score of 37-7. But the crowning achievement certainly was defeating Muskegon – the Big Reds were last season’s Division 3 runners-up and the top-ranked team entering this fall’s playoffs, and had received national recognition this fall while quarterbacked by Ohio State recruit Cameron Martinez. After the Big Reds took a 7-0 lead with a score during the final minute of the first quarter Saturday, Hrabowski scored on runs of 1, 40 and 35 yards to put the Panthers up 21-7 less than a minute into the third quarter. 

The 6-foot-3, 205-pound signal caller had showed his skills well all fall, but the attention likely will grow substantially after his Ford Field performance. He announced earlier this week he’d received a scholarship offer from Bowling Green, and he’ll surely be one of the most anticipated players to watch heading into next fall. Hrabowski also will play basketball for River Rouge, last season’s Division 2 runner-up in that sport, and run track next spring. He carries a 3.5 grade-point average with algebra and environmental science his favorite classes, and he enjoys building and fixing things – mechanical engineering is a field of study he’s considering after high school.

Coach Corey Parker said: “Mareyohn is a great kid, he plays the game hard, he plays the game smart, he plays the game the right way, he’s always focused and is very coachable. He’s a great leader and works hard to get the most out of his teammates. He’s hard on his offensive line on the field, yet maintains a great relationship with all of them off the field – that speaks to his character. … We were not shocked by his state championship performance at all; we knew he had a chance of having a big game if he could get through the emotional roller coaster the state championship throws at you. Mareyohn was your prototype dual threat QB at Ford Field Saturday. He ran the ball exceptionally well and completed several passes for first downs during crucial points in the game. I’m very proud of him and our QB coach, Larry Johnson. (Mareyohn) developed as the season went on and peaked at the right time.” 

Performance Point: “After the game, just enjoying the moment after beating the No. 1 team in the state, and letting it soak in – the crowd, everybody was really happy. We won our first state championship in school history, so it was really big for the city, and it means a lot for everyone. It was a really big night for us, the whole team and the city.”

Taking the spotlight: “Before the game a lot of people were talking about Muskegon. A lot of people thought they were going to win. When we won the game, people started talking about River Rouge, and it put us on the map. We were looking forward to playing a game like that. We knew that the championship, that it was going to be a good team. We like playing against competition. Those big games get us hype.”

Finals formula: “To make it this far, it definitely takes teamwork, and trust, and believing in your coaches. And never giving up. It’s not easy making it to the state championship. It takes a lot of hard work. You’ve got to be consistent. Team bonding in camps, and getting to know each other and hanging out together really builds a lot of trust and believing in each other.”

Big plays, big-time player: “I was really looking forward to the opportunity. I like playing against competition. I worked as hard as I could to get to this point, and I knew I wasn’t going to give up. … I think every time I ran the ball, passed the ball, I did it like it was going to be my last. Every touchdown that I ran, I ran as hard as I could. And playing against Muskegon, it built my confidence every single time we got a big play – and that played a big role in how I played the game that night.” 

More to come: “I watch (Baltimore Ravens’ QB) Lamar Jackson a lot. I like some of my game being like his a little bit. (I’m planning on) getting a little bit faster in the offseason and getting more tools for my box for next season. ... I want to show that I can pass the ball, not only run the ball, and hopefully next year will be fortunate enough to make the state championship again and win. And just keep on showing people I’m one of the best quarterbacks in Michigan.”

– Geoff Kimmerly, Second Half editor

 

Past honorees

Nov. 28: Kathryn Ackerman, Grand Haven swimming - Report
Nov. 21:
Emily Van Dyke, Southfield Christian volleyball - Report
Nov. 14:
Taylor Wegener, Ida volleyball - Report
Nov. 7:
Carter Solomon, Plymouth cross country - Report
Oct. 31: 
Jameson Goorman, Muskegon Western Michigan Christian soccer - Report
Oct. 24:
Austin Plotkin, Brimley cross country
- Report
Oct. 17:
Jack Spamer, Brighton cross country - Report
Oct. 10:
Kaylee Maat, Hudsonville volleyball - Report
Oct. 3:
Emily Paupore, Negaunee cross country - Report
Sept. 26: 
Josh Mason, South Lyon soccer - Report
Sept. 19: Ariel Chang, Utica Eisenhower golf - Report
Sept. 12: Jordyn Shipps, DeWitt swimming - Report

PHOTOS: (Top) River Rouge's Mareyohn Hrabowski (5) breaks away for one of his three touchdown runs Saturday while his teammates cheer him on. (Middle) Hrabowski works to evade a defender.