Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Davison Earns 1st-Time Football Glory
November 30, 2019
By Tom Kendra
Special for Second Half
DETROIT – Davison senior wide receiver Latrell Fordham strolled into the postgame press conference with his left arm in a sling, and an enormous smile on his face.
Fordham played a huge role in Davison’s 35-25 victory over Brighton in the MHSAA Division 1 Final on Saturday at Ford Field – before landing awkwardly and fracturing his left elbow late in the second quarter.
“It hurts a lot, and I need surgery, but winning a state championship overrides all of that,” said Fordham, a 6-foot-3 Ball State commit who had four catches for 88 yards before his injury, including an electrifying 74-yard sprint along the Davison sideline that helped his team assume control in the second quarter.
Davison (12-2) won the first football Finals championship in school history and the first title for a Saginaw Valley League school since 1999 Saginaw High, which was led by Charles Rogers and also featured LaMarr Woodley.
The Cardinals, who had won their first four playoff games in come-from-behind fashion powered by their running game, shifted gears completely Saturday.
Davison never trailed and pulled away behind an impressive passing attack, as 6-3 junior quarterback Brendan Sullivan completed 14-of-19 passes for 290 yards. He connected with six receivers.
Brighton coach Brian Lemons said after the game that his team was committed to shutting down the run, which made it susceptible through the air.
“We had to pick our poison,” said Lemons, whose team stunned top-ranked Belleville 22-19 in the Semifinals to earn its first Finals appearance. “We had some single coverage, and they did a great job of connecting in those situations.”
Sullivan opened the scoring on a one-yard plunge in the first quarter set up by a crucial two-yard, fourth-down completion to Fordham and a 14-yard pass to Harrison Terry on the next play. Terry led all receivers with six catches for 94 yards.
After a Brighton field goal narrowed the lead to 7-3 in the second quarter, second-year Davison coach Jake Weingartz seized on an opportunity to go for a home run.
“We had trips (three receivers) to one side and Latrell by himself on the other side,” explained Weingartz. “He had single coverage and the safety shaded to the trips side. We had to take a shot. We’re not going to beat our head against the wall and try to run against a loaded front.”
Fordham took off on a straight go route along the Davison sideline and Sullivan delivered a strike, which Fordham caught in stride as he sprinted the rest of the way for a 74-yard score and 14-3 lead.
“We were waiting for the right moment, and on that play we had the matchup we wanted,” explained Fordham, who expects to miss a good portion of basketball season, but hopes to be back by March. “Brendan made a perfect throw. I just had to grab it and take it to the house.”
That play brought the huge crowd from Davison to its feet and seemingly opened the floodgates. The Cardinals scored on a one-yard run by Carter Cryderman before halftime and a 10-yard scramble run by Sullivan early in the third quarter to take a seemingly comfortable 28-3 lead.
Brighton (11-3) showed no quit, however, led by dual-threat senior quarterback Colby Newburg and junior running back Nicholas Nemecek.
The Bulldogs scored 16 points in a row – on a one-yard run by Nemecek and a 27-yard pass from Newburg to Nemecek (along with a pair of 2-point conversions) – to close to within 28-19 with four minutes remaining, bringing the orange-clad Brighton fans to life.
Newburg, a 6-0, 190-pound senior, completed 16-of-28 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, and also ran 22 times for 83 yards.
“All I can say is that I’m super proud of everybody,” said Newburg. “We fought to the end.”
With Brighton back within striking distance, Sullivan took his turn in the quarterback shootout.
He connected with senior Caleb Smith on a 63-yard pass down to the 1-yard line, which Cryderman took in on the next play to push the lead back to 35-19.
Even then, Brighton was still not done, as Newburg completed six passes on the next drive, including a three-yard TD connection with Austin Lin with 43 seconds remaining. It wasn’t until the ensuing 2-point conversion pass fell incomplete that the game was decided.
Davison finished with a slight 441-425 edge in total yardage, but it was the efficiency of Sullivan through the air which proved to be the difference.
“I told my coach to trust me in this game,” said Sullivan, who stepped up as a junior on the biggest stage. “I want the ball in my hands in those pressure situations.”
The game featured two schools making their first appearances in the Finals, which is becoming more and more rare after 45 years of MHSAA Playoffs, which began in 1975.
That first-time excitement was apparent as both communities turned out in droves at Ford Field, Brighton in orange and Davison in gold.
Adding to the excitement was the fact neither team was expected to make a long playoff run after finishing second in their respective conferences – Davison in the Saginaw Valley League Red (behind Lapeer) and Brighton in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West (behind Plymouth).
Davison senior linebacker Logan Pasco was all over the field with a game-high 16 tackles, while Smith had nine tackles and defensive end Harry Unger made seven stops. Ian Hummel led Brighton with eight tackles, and Cole Riddle and Carson Billig each made six.
PHOTOS: (Top) Davison celebrates its first MHSAA Football Finals championship Saturday at Ford Field. (Middle) Brighton’s Ruben Salinas (1) keeps his eyes on a pass as Davison’s JayLen Murray Flowers works to deflect it.