Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Review
November 25, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half
Buckle up. We’re headed for the home stretch.
The final 16 contenders for this season’s MHSAA 11-player football championships were set over the weekend, and Detroit on Friday and Saturday will be the final stop to conclude another memorable season.
Below we discuss all 16 Semifinals just a bit, with more detailed previews of the championship games coming out Wednesday. We’ll also include this past weekend’s 8-Player Finals – congratulations to first-time champions Colon and Pickford! – when we wrap up our review of the MHSAA Football Finals as a whole next week.
“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid
Division 1
Brighton 22, Belleville 19
The Bulldogs (11-2) will play in their first MHSAA Final in football, while Belleville ended its season in the Semifinals for the second-straight year. Brighton scored with under a minute left to earn the first championship game trip, and also held Belleville (12-1) to its fewest points scored this season. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Brighton (@godogs_football) vs. Belleville - Division 1 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/EBR6WSMk9Q
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 23, 2019
Davison 34, Sterling Heights Stevenson 27 (OT)
The Cardinals (11-2) also will play in their first MHSAA football championship game after outlasting Stevenson. Davison, playing its first Semifinal since 2008, trailed throughout but caught up before the end of regulation and then made a stop in overtime to finish the comeback. The Titans (8-5) had made the playoffs as an additional qualifier before reaching their first Semifinal since 2009. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Davison (@DavCardFootball) vs. Sterling Heights Stevenson - Division 1 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. @DavisonMade @davisonwc
Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/SHWMaXepTR— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Division 2
Muskegon Mona Shores 57, Walled Lake Western 56
The reigning Division 2 runner-up Sailors (11-2) booked their return to Ford Field with a touchdown with 17 seconds to play followed by a go-ahead 2-point conversion instead of kicking an extra point – making back-up quarterback Brady Rose one of the biggest stars of the weekend. Walled Lake Western (11-2) was playing in its fourth Semifinal this decade and tied its most points scored in a game this fall. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Mona Shores (@sailorathletics) vs. Walled Lake Western - Division 2 @MHSAA Semifinal from this afternoon. Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/mjhgCori9i
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Detroit Martin Luther King 60, Birmingham Seaholm 17
The Crusaders (11-2) will play for a second-straight MHSAA Finals championship to follow up last season’s won in Division 3. The reached 60 points for the first time since Week 5 of 2017 and held Seaholm (9-4) to nearly 20 points before its average. The Maples were playing in their first Semifinal since 1997. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Detroit King (@DetKingFootball) vs. Seaholm - Division 2 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/6uH4H9Cp4P
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Division 3
Muskegon 28, DeWitt 21
The Big Reds (13-0) outlasted DeWitt in their only playoff games decided by fewer than 38 points, and one of only two games they played decided by single digits this fall. Last season’s Division 3 runner-up, Muskegon went ahead to stay with just more than two minutes remaining and held off a final rally by the Panthers (10-3), who were playing in their fifth Semifinal this decade. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Muskegon (@OnMuskegon) vs. DeWitt - Division 3 @MHSAA Semifinal from this afternoon. @MuskCoFootball @CM240
Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/hkf0kqHpQY— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
River Rouge 14, Chelsea 7
The Panthers (12-1) likewise received their toughest challenge of the playoffs, as Chelsea gave them one of only three games decided by single digits this season. River Rouge scored both of its touchdowns during the fourth quarter after Chelsea (12-1) led for a quarter and a half. The Bulldogs were trying for their second-straight trip to the Finals after finishing Division 4 runner-up a year ago. Click for more from the Detroit News.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the River Rouge (@RougeFootball) vs. Chelsea - Division 3 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/vn8myIIMIO
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 23, 2019
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 56, Hudsonville Unity Christian 17
The Cougars (12-1) will play for their third Division 4 championship in four years after eliminating last season’s Division 5 title winner, Unity (9-4). It was the seventh time these teams met in the playoffs this decade, and fifth time the result went GRCC’s way. The Cougars scored their most points this season in earning the trip to Detroit. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Grand Rapids Catholic Central (@GRCatholicCentr) vs. Unity Christian - Division 4 @MHSAA Semifinal from this afternoon.
Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/ifsI5zUaSf— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Detroit Country Day 21, Flint Powers Catholic 0
Country Day (13-0) will return to Ford Field for the first time since 2016 (when it also faced GRCC) after posting its fourth shutout this season. It’s easy to marvel at the Yellowjackets’ defense, which is now giving up just 5.2 points per game. Powers (10-3) was playing in its third Semifinal this decade and capped its best run since 2015. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Detroit Country Day (@DCDSAthletics) vs. Flint Powers - Division 4 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Courtesy: @MHSAA.tv
Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/3HrO0G1mfB— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Division 5
Lansing Catholic 28, Kingsley 14
The Cougars (12-1) are known for offense, but headed to Ford Field for the first time since 2014 as much thanks to a defensive effort that held Kingsley (12-1) nearly 32 points below its season average. Lansing Catholic is giving up only 13 points per game. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
See the video highlights from Lansing Catholic's state semifinal win: https://t.co/avSHBQ8r7e via @LSJnews
— Brian Calloway (@brian_calloway) November 24, 2019
Almont 36, Detroit Denby 8
In its third Semifinal this decade, Almont (13-0) advanced to its first football championship game also with another outstanding defensive performance. The Raiders lowered their points-given-up average to 10 with their best showing of the playoffs, halting Denby’s longest playoff run and most successful season at 10-3.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the @AlmontRaidersFB vs. Denby - Division 5 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. @AlmontAthletics
Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/PLTPP73lGC— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 23, 2019
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake 31, Montague 30 (OT)
The Lakers (12-1) are headed to their second MHSAA Final in four seasons thanks to a mighty comeback against last season’s Division 6 runner-up. Glen Lake trailed by 14 with under five minutes left in regulation, but pushed the game to overtime with a touchdown pass on the last play of the fourth quarter. Montague (10-3) finished with three losses this fall by a combined 13 points. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Glen Lake (@GlenLakeSchools) vs. Montague - Division 6 @MHSAA Semifinal from this afternoon.
Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/Anlw0EURkU— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 17, Onsted 14
St. Mary will play in its third Final this decade and first since winning Division 6 in 2014 thanks to Wyatt Bergmoser’s 20-yard field goal on the game’s final play. The Falcons (11-1) held off an Onsted team that finished 10-3 and rallied after a 2-2 start to reach the Semifinals for the first time since 1993. The close win for SMCC came after its last two playoff runs ended in Regional Final losses by two and one point. Click for more from the Monroe News.
Onsted vs. Monroe St. Mary MHSAA Division 6 semifinal 11-23-19 | Photo Gallery https://t.co/bRwyZi3sGQ
— JTV Sports (@JTV_Sports) November 25, 2019
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 43, Iron Mountain 7
Friday night at the Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University saw two undefeated teams meet and P-W (13-0) earn its fourth trip to Ford Field over the last five seasons. After giving up 35 points to reigning champ New Lothrop in a one-point win the week before, the Pirates’ defense bounced back to hold the Mountaineers (12-1) to their season low. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Pewamo-Westphalia (@PWGRIDIRON) vs. Iron Mountain - Division 7 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from tonight. Brought to you by @hungryhowies pic.twitter.com/5frtnZNIod
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 23, 2019
Jackson Lumen Christi 27, Cass City 0
Lumen Christi scored one point less than Cass City had given up over the last 10 weeks combined, finding enough openings against one of the state’s most accomplished defenses to reach a fourth-straight Final. The Titans (12-0) also posted their second shutout of the fall, like P-W bouncing back on that side of the ball after giving up 30 in a Regional Final. Cass City finished 11-2 in reaching the Semifinals for the first time. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Lumen Christi (@Titan78378009) vs. Cass City - Division 6 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/3mIv7mz4b6
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 23, 2019
Division 8
Beal City 21, Ubly 20
The Aggies (12-1) came back from an early 14-0 deficit to edge Ubly and reach the MHSAA Finals for the first time since back-to-back trips in 2012 and 2013. The Bearcats went for the win after a last-minute score, but Beal City made a stop on the conversion and again after Ubly (10-3) recovered the ensuing onside kick. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Beal City vs. Ubly - Division 8 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Courtesy: @MHSAA.tv
Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/eotIVO5Ut6— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
Reading 62, Fowler 18
The reigning champ has earned an opportunity to repeat, as Reading (12-1) put up 60 points for the third time this season and held the Eagles scoreless during the second half. Fowler, playing in its first Semifinal since 2011, finished with its best record since that fall at 11-2. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Reading vs. Fowler - Division 8 @MHSAA Football Semifinal from this afternoon. Courtesy: Hometown Media Network. Brought to you by @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/fImEPdoqSg
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsnet) November 24, 2019
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PHOTO: Detroit King's Terence Maize (99) wraps up Birmingham Seaholm's Chaz Strecker during the Crusaders' Division 2 Semifinal win Saturday. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)