Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Preview
November 22, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The "Drive for Detroit" will take one last turn this weekend on the way to the final destination for 16 teams fortunate enough to finish this fall at Ford Field.
This season's Semifinal field is a mix of teams that have made this trip plenty of times in the past – along with a few traveling this path for the first time, or the first time in a long while.
We're expecting great weather across most of the state, so find a seat in the bleachers and root on your favorite team. But if you’d rather watch from the comforts of home, this weekend we again will have all 16 Semifinals available, either on FOXSportsDetroit.com or MHSAA.tv. (Click for the full schedule.)
All games are 1 p.m. Saturday unless noted. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid
Division 1
Belleville (12-0) vs. Brighton (10-2) at Howell High School
For the second straight season, Belleville is one more win from reaching the Finals for the first time. Junior quarterback Christian Dhue-Reid (2,706 yards/33 TDs passing) has led a return Semifinal march that’s seen the Tigers go unbeaten since falling in last year’s Semifinal to eventual champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Brighton also is playing to reach its first championship game in this sport and also follows a dynamic quarterback in senior Colby Newburg (1,140 yards/17 TDs rushing, 1,319 yards/17 TDs passing).
Davison (10-2) vs. Sterling Heights Stevenson (8-4) at Troy Athens
The Cardinals are playing in their fifth Semifinal and for their first trip to a championship game. Davison is riding the arm of another quarterback getting a lot of attention – junior Brendan Sullivan has thrown for 2,635 yards and 31 touchdowns and run for eight more scores. Stevenson will be the third team from the vaunted Macomb Area Conference Red to see Davison this playoffs. The Titans are one of the state’s best comeback stories coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons. They have a number of versatile weapons, among them senior running back Nick Wingfield (1,018 yards/15 TDs rushing), as they seek their first Finals trip since 2009.
Division 2
Walled Lake Western (11-1) vs. Muskegon Mona Shores (10-2) at Okemos
The Warriors are a Week 3 three-point loss to Orchard Lake St. Mary’s from undefeated this fall as they seek their second trip to Ford Field in four seasons. Quarterback Zach Trainor (2,685 yards/32 TDs passing) to receiver Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (1,443 yards/18 TDs receiving) has been one of the state’s top scoring combinations. Mona Shores will need to slow Western down to return to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago. The Sailors will counter with an attack led by running back Tre Hatcher (1,257 yards/12 TDs rushing) and veteran quarterback Caden Broersma (406 yards/10 TDs rushing, 908 yards/11 TDs passing).
Detroit Martin Luther King (10-2) vs. Birmingham Seaholm (9-3) at Novi, 3 p.m.
Despite moving back to Division 2 after winning Division 3 a year ago, King will play in its fifth straight Semifinal and is riding a 10-game winning streak after early losses to Detroit Catholic Central and Muskegon. Freshman Dante Moore (2,240 yards/30 TDs) has more than fulfilled preseason media build-up, and senior Peny Boone (903 yards/15 touchdowns) is regarded as one of the top backs in the state. Seaholm is seeking its first championship game berth and playing its first Semifinal since 1997. Chaz Strecker has carried the load with 1,493 yards and 20 touchdowns for a Maples team approaching nearly 4,000 yards on the ground.
Division 3
Muskegon (12-0) vs. DeWitt (10-2) at East Kentwood
Muskegon has appeared on a mission since falling to King in last season’s Division 3 Final, and senior quarterback Cameron Martinez (1,735 yards/32 TDs rushing, 1,122 yards/10 TDs passing) again has led the charge. The only team to come within 20 points of the Big Reds this season was East Grand Rapids in Week 3, and Muskegon won the rematch last week 49-10. But DeWitt as a program has more experience at this level of the playoffs than most in the state, and the Panthers are coming off a 35-14 win over Edwardsburg that ended the reigning Division 4 champion’s winning streak at 25. The Panthers haven’t given up more than 15 points in a game since Week 5, and senior quarterback Andrew Schorfaar leads the team both in passing (1,458 yards/18 TDs) and rushing (1,058/14).
Chelsea (12-0) vs. River Rouge (11-1) at Dearborn
Chelsea has advanced to MHSAA Finals in both Divisions 3 and 4 over the last five years. The Bulldogs have won three games by seven points or fewer this playoffs to come within another victory of a second-straight trip to Ford Field after finishing Division 4 runners-up a year ago. A steady defense gives up just more than 12 points per game, while running back Brennan Van Riper (952 yards/13 TDs rushing) is among a number of offensive options. Rouge has won 11 straight since falling by three in its opener to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central and will play in its fourth Semifinal in five years. Running back Deandre Bulley (1,820 yards/20 TDs) has been tough to bring down at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, and quarterback Mareyohn Hrabowski has reached 1,000 yards both rushing and passing. Meanwhile, the defense is giving up just 8.3 points per game.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (9-3) at Jenison
The Cougars are playing in their fourth-straight Semifinal and seeking their third championship game trip during this string after missing out last year with a two-point loss to Edwardsburg. GRCC is unbeaten in-state this fall, with its lone loss to a team from Illinois. Quarterback Joey Silveri drives the offense, throwing for 2,491 yards and 31 touchdowns and running for 704 yards and 13 scores. But Unity Christian has plenty of experience at this level too coming off last season’s Division 5 championship. Running back Malekhi Obande is averaging nearly 10 yards per carry (1,311 total, with 14 TDs rushing), and like GRCC the Crusaders won their first three playoff games all by at least three touchdowns.
Detroit Country Day (12-0) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (10-2) at Howell Parker Middle School
The Yellowjackets are playing in their fourth Semifinal in six seasons and advanced after handing Milan its only loss this season last week. The defense shined again, giving up just six points, which actually upped its average to 5.6 points given up per game. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthony Ammori (822 yards/14 TDs) leads a rushing attack that’s gained more than 2,200 yards. Powers’ defense during the regular season against much larger opponents in the Saginaw Valley League Blue didn’t stand out, but during the playoffs the Chargers have given up only 28 points over three games. Quarterback Luke Phillpotts has run and passed both for more than 700 yards to lead the team in both categories.
Division 5
Kingsley (12-0) vs. Lansing Catholic (11-1) at Greenville
Kingsley has won all of its games by double digits including in Week 7 against Division 6 semifinalist Maple City Glen Lake, and eliminated unbeaten Muskegon Oakridge in a 17-point win two weeks ago. Running backs Ayden Mullin (1,451 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Owen Graves (713 yards/12 TDs) are both averaging more than nine yards per carry as the team works toward making the Finals for the first time since 2005. But Lansing Catholic, now free of rival Portland after falling to the Raiders the last two District Finals, is aiming for its first Ford Field trip since 2014 with its most productive offense since that season. Quarterback Zach Gillespie has thrown for 2,247 yards and 24 touchdowns and run for another 18 scores.
Almont (12-0) vs. Detroit Denby (10-2) at Walled Lake Central
The Raiders have put together a 22-1 run over the last two seasons as they seek their first trip to the Finals. Almont long has been known for defense, and this year’s unit is giving up just 10 points per game. But the offense has reached 500 points for the first time since 2014 with four rushers gaining at least 500 yards and quarterback Josh Hellebuyck providing a nice complement with 1,194 yards and 22 TDs through the air. Denby also is seeking its first Finals berth, while playing in its first Semifinal, and has lost this season to only King, twice. The Tars have given up only 97 points this season – and subtract the King losses, they are allowing only 3.8 points per game.
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (11-1) vs. Montague (10-2) at Clare
Glen Lake’s only defeat this season was to Kingsley, as noted above, and the Lakers are seeking their second trip to Ford Field in four years. After dominating most of the regular season, Glen Lake has won close the last three weeks – with that experience possibly paying off in what’s sure to be a challenging matchup with last season’s Division 6 runner-up. Quarterback Reece Hazelton towers over most defenders at 6-6 and has thrown for 1,012 yards and 14 touchdowns, with Jonathan Wright adding 1,112 yards and 17 scores on the ground for the Lakers. Montague quarterback Drew Collins started during last season’s run and is starring with 2,354 yards and 27 TDs passing and 663 yards and 14 scores rushing.
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-1) vs. Onsted (10-2) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
The Falcons opened this decade with three Semifinal appearances over the first five years, and will close with one more thanks in part to a defense that hasn’t given up more than 16 points since Week 3. St. Mary also has scored its most points since its championship season of 2014 despite playing one fewer game so far than the last two years (because of an open date). Alex Morgan leads that effort with 1,571 yards and 16 touchdowns rushing. Onsted has made its first Semifinal since 1993 by avenging losses to Blissfield and formerly-undefeated Hillsdale during the playoffs. The Wildcats finished only 3-6 a year ago but have rebounded in part because of a ground attack featuring two 1,000-yard rushers, Travis Hill (1,312 yards/14 TDs) and Rourke Barth (1,025/16).
Division 7
Iron Mountain (12-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) at the Superior Dome, 7 p.m. Friday
Pewamo-Westphalia will see its second-straight undefeated opponent after handing the first and only loss of the season last week to reigning champion New Lothrop. Iron Mountain won a league that sent four teams total to the playoffs and also has won all of its playoff games by at least two scores. Caleb Evosivich-Hynes is the team’s leading rusher (1,289 yards/12 TDs) and receiver (435/8), catching passes from quarterback and also basketball standout Marcus Johnson (1,037 yards/14 TDs passing). The Pirates got up big on New Lothrop before holding off the Hornets down the stretch to win by a point 36-35, but otherwise P-W has locked down all of its opponents, giving up only 56 points on the season. Expect to see the ball often in running back Tanner Wirth’s hands, as he has run for nearly 10 yards per carry and 1,499 and 24 touchdowns overall.
Jackson Lumen Christi (11-0) vs. Cass City (11-1) at Novi, 11 a.m.
The Titans have won 24 straight games and the last three Division 6 championships, and they impressed in a major test last week holding off Schoolcraft 35-30. It’s hardly a surprise that Lumen Christi runs the ball well – the latest in its string of star runners is Walker Plate, who has rushed for 2,279 yards and 31 touchdowns. Cass City is playing in its first Semifinal boasting a defense that has given up only 52 points all year – and just two over three playoff games. The Red Hawks have given up more than eight points only once, in a two-point opening-night loss to Montrose.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (10-2) at Mount Pleasant
Both of these teams have reached the Semifinals previously this decade, Beal City most recently in 2014 and Ubly in 2016. Both also bounced back from late losses this time to make their runs – Beal City against McBain and Ubly to Cass City (see Division 7 above). Beal City has gained more than 3,200 yards this season showing impressive balance with no one rushing for more than 750 or throwing for more than 450. Ubly has four backs with at least 600 yards rushing, but the main ball carrier for an offense with nearly 4,300 yards total is Carson Heleski (1,447 yards/19 TDs rushing).
Reading (11-1) vs. Fowler (11-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
There are a lot of similarities in how these two small-school powers conduct business on the field. Fowler, in its first Semifinal since reaching the Division 8 championship game in 2011, has for decades been known for its powerful running. This season that’s come in the forms of Kyle Snyder (1,481 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Caiden Pung (1,222 yards/21 TDs). Reading rode the same to last season’s Division 8 title and is back in the hunt led by Hunter Midtgard (1,212 yards/15 TDs) among others running behind 6-3, 307-pound Nick Affholter. The key may be who stops whom; the Rangers have given up only 79 points, and the Eagles only 137.
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PHOTO: Beal City's Logan Chilman (10) breaks away from an Ishpeming's Dawson Delongchamp during last weekend's Division 8 Regional Final win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)