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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Review

November 18, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Only 36 teams remain from the original 602 that opened this fall with hopes of reaching the biggest stages in Michigan high school football.

Suttons Bay, Colon, Pickford and Portland St. Patrick earned the first championship opportunities with 8-Player Semifinal wins over the weekend. And 32 more 11-player teams are one more victory from booking Thanksgiving trips to Detroit.

Below is a glance at all 36 games played during the third round of the MHSAA Playoffs. There’s plenty coming up on Second Half later this week as well as we’ll preview both 8-Player Finals and all 16 11-Player Semifinals, followed by coverage of both Saturday championship games from The Superior Dome.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

8-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Suttons Bay 45, Kingston 14 The Norsemen (12-0) earned their first trip to the MHSAA Finals since 2004, putting up their most points since Week 6 while holding the Cardinals (9-3) to their fewest since Week 1. Suttons Bay scored 33 unanswered points to close the game, while holding Kingston scoreless during the second half. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now.  

HEADLINER Colon 27, Morrice 8 The Magi (12-0) are headed to the MHSAA Finals for the first time. As expected, Colon got its toughest challenge this season from the reigning Division 1 champion Orioles – but still managed to extend its season-long streak of all 12 wins by double digits while holding Morrice (10-2) to its fewest points since the 2017 Regional Final. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer and see below for highlights from JoeInsider.com.

Division 2

HEADLINER Pickford 40, Hillman 8 The 2018 Division 1 runner-up Panthers (11-1) earned another chance to play for a first championship with one of their best defensive showings of the fall. Quarterback Jimmy Storey ran for two touchdowns and threw for another score, and the Panthers held Hillman (10-2) to its fewest points since Week 2 of its final season of 11-player in 2017. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

HEADLINER Portland St. Patrick 49, Climax-Scotts 6 The Shamrocks (12-0) have put up at least 42 points in every game this season. But the story Saturday may have been the defense, which gave one of its best showings of the fall in locking down a Climax-Scotts offense averaging 34 points per game. The Panthers finished their first season of 8-player 9-3. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Belleville 27, West Bloomfield 22 These two were seen as Division 1 favorites before the first kickoff this fall, and as anticipated the Lakers gave Belleville one of only two single-digit games of an otherwise dominating run this season. West Bloomfield (10-2) scored the game’s first 15 points and led into the third quarter, but the Tigers (12-0) came back and then held off a final rally to advance to the Semifinals for the second straight season. Click for more from State Champs Sports Network.

Regional Roundup Brighton 35, Hudsonville 20 The Bulldogs (10-2) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 2005. Brighton got up 21-0 early, and the Eagles (8-4) were unable to catch up. Davison 35, Utica Eisenhower 7 The Cardinals (10-2) will play in their first Semifinal since 2008 after holding Eisenhower (9-3) to its first single-digit scoring output since Week 1. Sterling Heights Stevenson 9, Detroit Cass Tech 7 Both entered the playoffs as additional qualifiers, but Stevenson (8-4) is carrying a five-game winning streak into its first Semifinal since 2009 after ending a five-game winning streak for the Technicians (7-5).

Division 2

HEADLINER Muskegon Mona Shores 28, Portage Northern 23 The Sailors (10-2) have had to defeat three league champions to get within another win of returning to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runners-up a year ago. Portage Northern (10-2) led into the third quarter before a Mona Shores comeback brought the Huskies’ first double-digit wins season to a close. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from WZZM.

Regional Roundup Walled Lake Western 21, Livonia Churchill 14 A Warriors defense giving up only 14 points per game held on through a late rally to end a six-game winning streak for Churchill (7-5) and get Western back to the Semifinals for the third time in five seasons. Detroit Martin Luther King 49, Detroit U-D Jesuit 21 This matchup of league champions went to the Detroit Public School League’s Crusaders (10-2), who won their fifth straight Regional title in ending the winningest season for Jesuit (8-4) since 2001. Birmingham Seaholm 44, Port Huron 28 The Maples (9-3) are headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 1997 after jumping out to a big lead and holding off the Big Reds (8-4), who closed their winningest season and longest playoff run since 2011.

11-Player

Division 3

HEADLINER DeWitt 35, Edwardsburg 14 As a set, Division 3 might have had the most captivating games in the state this weekend. DeWitt (10-2) earns the “headliner” by ending a 25-game winning streak for the Eddies (11-1), who won Division 4 a year ago. Edwardsburg had given up only 69 points over its first 10 games on the field (not counting a 2-0 forfeit win Week 5), but DeWitt’s defense also earned some of the spotlight holding the Eddies to their fewest points since a 2016 Semifinal. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Regional Roundup Muskegon 49, East Grand Rapids 10 After getting past East Grand Rapids just 28-23 in Week 3, the Big Reds (12-0) held the Pioneers to their season-low points total and scored the most that EGR (8-4) gave up this fall. Chelsea 28, Allen Park 27 A blocked extra point followed by a late score and conversion sent Chelsea to 12-0 for the first time and the Semifinals for the second-straight season, while Allen Park ended 9-3 for the second-straight year. River Rouge 49, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 14 The Panthers (11-1) are headed to the Semifinals for the fourth time in five seasons after scoring the most points the Eaglets (10-2) had given up since Week 2 of 2018.

Division 4

HEADLINER Detroit Country Day 24, Milan 6 The Yellowjackets (12-0) won this matchup of undefeated contenders on the strength of a defense that has held every opponent this season to 12 points or fewer and lowered its average with this win to 5.6 points allowed per game. Milan (11-1) hadn’t been held to single-digit scoring since Week 5 of 2017. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Regional Roundup Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Cadillac 7 The Cougars (11-1) are in the Semifinals for the fourth-straight season after a fifth-straight game giving up seven points or fewer, as Cadillac (7-5) closed its longest playoff run since 2013. Hudsonville Unity Christian 38, Paw Paw 17 Last season’s Division 5 champion Unity (9-3) is one more win from playing for the Division 4 title this time after putting up the second-most points Paw Paw (10-2) had surrendered this fall while giving up only 11.9 per game. Flint Powers Catholic 12, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 9 The Chargers (10-2) won their first Regional title since 2015 with the go-ahead touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, ending Notre Dame Prep’s first 10-win season since 2011 at 10-2.

Division 5

HEADLINER Detroit Denby 40, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 18 The Tars (10-2) reached double-digit wins and won a Regional title both for the first time, continuing a run that has seen them lose this season only to Division 2 contender King (twice). Robichaud (9-3) closed its winningest season since 2012. Click for more from the Dearborn Press & Guide.

Regional Roundup Kingsley 43, Freeland 21 The Stags (12-0) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 2005 after scoring the most Freeland (9-3) gave up in a game this fall. Kingsley has won all of its games by 12 or more points. Lansing Catholic 40, Kalamazoo United 13 The Zac Gillespie-to-Alex Watters connection played a major part in getting the Cougars (11-1) back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2015, as they connected for three of Gillespie’s four touchdown passes. The 40 points tied the most United (7-5) had given up this season. Almont 25, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 After opening the playoffs with two road games, Almont (12-0) came home to earn its first Regional title since 2014 as Swan Valley (8-4) was seeking to make the Semifinals for the third-straight season.

Division 6

HEADLINER Onsted 12, Hillsdale 0 This no doubt was the biggest stunner statewide of the weekend, as Onsted (10-2) – which three weeks ago won a playoff game for the first time since 2008 – avenged a Week 4 loss to unbeaten Hillsdale to claim its first Regional title since 1993. The Hornets (11-1) hadn’t been shut out since Week 2 of 2016 and won that first meeting with Onsted this fall 28-19. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Maple City Glen Lake 15, Calumet 14 The Lakers (11-1) are headed to the Semifinals for the second time in four seasons after winning by the slimmest of margins, with a second-quarter 2-point conversion run the eventual decider. Calumet (10-2) suffered its two defeats this season both by 15-14 scores against teams still alive in the playoffs. Montague 48, Sanford Meridian 14 The reigning Division 6 runner-up Wildcats (10-2) have won six straight since back-to-back close league defeats, and the 14 points scored by Meridian (8-4) tied the most given up during Montague’s current run. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 36, Montrose 7 After Regional Finals losses the last two years by a combined three points, St. Mary (10-1) is headed back to the Semifinals for the first time since 2014 after handing Montrose (10-2) its first loss since Week 4.  

Division 7

HEADLINER Pewamo-Westphalia 36, New Lothrop 35 In what might be remembered as the top non-Finals matchup of these playoffs, the Pirates (12-0) – Division 7 champions in 2016 and 2017 – got out to a three-touchdown lead and held on to edge last season’s champion New Lothrop (11-1). The Hornets had won 11 straight games and defeated P-W 26-14 in last year’s Regional Final. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see below for highlights from FOX 17.

Regional Roundup Iron Mountain 21, Traverse City St. Francis 7 The Mountaineers (12-0) won their first Regional title since 2011 and reached 12 wins for the first time since 2000 by ending St. Francis’ quest for a third straight Semifinals berth. Iron Mountain held the Gladiators (8-4) scoreless into the fourth quarter. Jackson Lumen Christi 35, Schoolcraft 30 The Eagles (10-2) rallied from more than three scores down but couldn’t catch up to the reigning Division 6 champion Titans (11-0), who ran their winning streak to 24. Cass City 6, Detroit Loyola 0 The Red Hawks’ fifth shutout this season came with historic rewards as Cass City (11-1) added its first Regional title to its most successful season, with a fourth-quarter score the difference against the defensively-tough Bulldogs (6-5).

Division 8

HEADLINER Reading 26, Adrian Lenawee Christian 21 The reigning Division 8 champion Rangers were trailing into the fourth quarter before scoring the go-ahead points with just over eight minutes to play. Both teams’ defenses bent just a bit: Reading (11-1) hadn’t given up more than 14 points all season, and Lenawee (10-2) hadn’t given up more than 14 since its Week 2 loss to Sand Creek. The Cougars concluded their winningest season, which included their first playoff victory two weeks ago. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Regional Roundup Beal City 27, Ishpeming 14 The Aggies (11-1) won their first Regional title since 2014, scoring all of their points before Ishpeming (9-3) got on the board. The Hematites were making a second-straight Regional Final appearance. Ubly 56, Saginaw Nouvel 36 The Bearcats (10-2) went over 50 points for the fifth time this season to win their second Regional title in four years and despite giving up a season-high point total to Nouvel (7-5). Fowler 33, Royal Oak Shrine 0 The Eagles (11-1) won their first Regional title since 2011, continuing a bounce-back run after two straight 4-5 finishes. Shrine finished 9-3, also with more wins than the last two seasons combined.

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PHOTO: Pewamo-Westphalia's Ethan Thelen (10) breaks multiple New Lothrop tackles during Friday's Division 7 Regional Final win. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)