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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 2 Review

November 11, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

You can stop trying to predict what’s going to happen in the MHSAA Football Playoffs this month.

The first two weeks have showed us that’s pretty much a futile endeavor – and that’s what could make these playoffs some of the most memorable of this decade soon to end.

A couple of observations quickly can be pulled from this weekend’s results. For starters, 12 teams ended their seasons with their first and only loss. Also, there were 16 rematches from the regular season – and 10 teams that lost the first meeting won this time around.

Sure, many of the heavy pre-playoff favorites are still around. But they might now be faced with stopping a few surprise contenders that have found their strides at the right time.

Below is a glance at some of the most notable District Final results from every division of 11-player, plus a thought on all eight 8-player Regional Finals. "Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Davison 42, Lapeer 21 Although Lapeer (9-2) did defeat Davison two weeks ago to win the Saginaw Valley League Blue title, the Lightning won that meeting only 24-21 – and the Cardinals more than flipped that result two weeks later. Davison (9-2) locked up its first District title since 2008 by overcoming a Lapeer defense that was giving up only 10.8 points per game and hadn’t surrendered more than 21 (also against Davison) this season. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

District Digest Utica Eisenhower 27, Lake Orion 20 The Eagles (9-2) have won eight straight and their third District title in four seasons, while Lake Orion (9-2) ended its most successful season since 2012 and with both defeats this fall by just seven points apiece. Belleville 67 Brownstown Woodhaven 14 The Warriors (10-1) led into the second quarter before Belleville (11-0) scored 61 straight points over the final three to repeat as a District champion. Sterling Heights Stevenson 38, Macomb Dakota 35 A week after Dakota shocked reigning Division 1 champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, Stevenson (7-4) avenged its 40-14 Week 4 loss to the Cougars (6-5) to win its first District title since 2009.

Division 2

HEADLINER Birmingham Seaholm 42, Birmingham Groves 7 While Groves (8-3) has become a playoff regular and made the Division 2 Semifinals last season and in 2016, Seaholm is two seasons removed from a 1-8 finish and had lost seven straight to the rival Falcons – including in last year’s playoff opener. This season’s defeat was only three weeks ago, 35-14, but the Maples (8-3) avenged by holding a Groves offense averaging 30 points per game to its lowest output of the fall. The District title was Seaholm’s first since 2001. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

District Digest Muskegon Mona Shores 35, Midland Dow 12 The Sailors (9-2) finished their sweep of SVL Red co-champions by holding Dow (7-4) to its second-fewest points and scoring the second-most the Chargers gave up this fall. Detroit U-D Jesuit 11, Farmington 10 The Cubs (8-3) added a first District title since 2013 to their league championship, ending the Falcons’ season at 8-2 and with both losses by a combined five points. Walled Lake Western 49, Fenton 21 The Warriors (10-1) clinched their fourth District title in five seasons by handing the Tigers (9-2) their first loss since opening night.

Division 3

HEADLINER Edwardsburg 16, Zeeland West 2 – The Eddies – last year’s Division 4 champs – passed a major Division 3 test, and did so holding West (9-2) to its fewest points since the 2014 Semifinals. Granted, Edwardsburg (11-0) also scored way under its usual output, but put up enough while bringing down its defensive average half a point to giving up just 6.9 per game this season. The District title was the Eddies’ fourth straight, continuing a streak that began in Division 3 in 2016 before the team played in Division 4 the last two seasons. Click for more from the Edwardsburg Argus.

District Digest East Grand Rapids 41, Byron Center 14 The Pioneers (8-3) locked up their first District title since 2015 by handing Byron Center (10-1) its only loss during a rebound season that saw the Bulldogs bounce back from two straight sub-.500 finishes. Chelsea 28, Coldwater 21 The Bulldogs (11-0) won their fifth District title in six seasons with their second seven-point victory in two weeks. Coldwater finished 9-2 after going 3-6 a year ago. Allen Park 42, Riverview 26 The Jaguars (9-2) won their fourth District title in five seasons by eliminating Riverview (8-3) for the second straight.

Division 4

HEADLINER Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 54, Ortonville Brandon 40 As an independent during the regular season, Notre Dame Prep (10-1) faced a variety of opponents from a variety of leagues. So it’s gone a little unnoticed that the Fighting Irish are enjoying what has now tied their most successful season ever (with the 2011 team that finished 10-1). This District title was the program’s first since 2004. Brandon (8-3) ended its third season in four with at least eight wins. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

District Digest Cadillac 21, Sault Ste. Marie 6 The Vikings (7-4) keep adding highlights to their first winning season since 2016, with this their first District title since 2013. The Blue Devils (7-4), meanwhile, concluded their winningest season since 2013. Grand Rapids Catholic Central 33, Sparta 7 The Cougars (10-1) reached double-digit wins for their fourth-straight season by winning their fourth-straight District title, this time ending the winningest season for Sparta (9-2) since the start of the playoff era in 1975. Milan 56, Romulus Summit Academy North 22 Both of these teams set program records for wins this season, Milan (11-0) reaching 11 for the first time and the Dragons in finishing 8-3.

Division 5

HEADLINER Kingsley 51, Muskegon Oakridge 34 The Stags have been charging since the return of coach Tim Wooer before the 2018 season, and they’re up to a combined 21-2 with two District titles over the last two years after handing Oakridge (10-1) its lone loss of the fall. The Eagles hadn’t given up more than 20 points in a game this season and not 50 since a Semifinal loss in 2013. Kingsley’s offensive performance raised its scoring average this fall to just under 46 points per game. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

District Digest Almont 22, Marine City 20 The Raiders (11-0) have put together arguably the most impressive playoff runs so far with two wins over rivals on the road, and with the Mariners (10-1) also unbeaten entering the night. A Marine City offense averaging nearly 44 points per game was stopped just enough by an Almont defense still giving up just 9.9 per contest. Lansing Catholic 21, Portland 0 The Cougars (10-1) won their first District title since 2015 by ending a six-game losing streak to the rival Raiders (8-3), the only team that had beaten Lansing Catholic over the last two seasons. Saginaw Swan Valley 21, Frankenmuth 7 The closest win of the Eagles’ perfect league title run was a three-pointer over Swan Valley in Week 5, and the Vikings (8-3) clinched their third-straight District title by taking the rematch. Frankenmuth finished 9-2.

Division 6

HEADLINER Montague 20, Ravenna 13 (OT) Another rematch reversal was as close as anticipated, with Montague avenging its 17-7 Week 6 loss. Ravenna (8-3) scored all of its points during the fourth quarter to send this game to overtime, but the Wildcats (9-2) scored the only points of the extra period. The District title was the third straight for the reigning Division 6 runner-up. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

District Digest Onsted 35, Grass Lake 21 The Wildcats (9-2) extended their first playoff season since 2014 with their first District title since 2007, while ending Grass Lake’s season also at 9-2. Calumet 39, Menominee 14 The Copper Kings (10-1) have 10 wins for the third time and a District title for the second in four seasons, and earned another home game as they seek their first Regional title. Menominee finished 7-4 after going 2-7 a year ago. Hillsdale 20, Constantine 14 League champion Hillsdale (11-0) joined Onsted as District champs from the Lenawee County Athletic Association, and now they will meet again. Constantine (8-3) ended its season with three defeats all by six points or fewer.

Division 7

HEADLINER New Lothrop 42, Beaverton 7 The legend of New Lothrop continues to grow. The Hornets (11-0) ran their winning streak to 16 going back to last year’s playoff run by handing Beaverton (10-1) its only loss – and scoring nearly half of the 100 points the Beavers gave up all season. New Lothrop has scored at least 40 points in 13 straight games dating back to last year’s Semifinals (and not counting a Week 8 forfeit this fall). Click for more from the Flint Journal.

District Digest Schoolcraft 47, Lawton 10 The Eagles (10-1) repeated as District champs and have now outscored two playoff opponents by a combined 104-16. Lawton (10-1) concluded a great turnaround after two straight 3-6 seasons. Cass City 28, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 2 Playing in its third-straight District Final, Cass City (10-1) made history winning its first championship during the opening round and getting to double-digit victories for the first time. Laker ended its sixth playoff season in seven years at 7-4. Traverse City St. Francis 14, McBain 6 The Gladiators (8-3) have played in four games decided by eight or fewer points, and this win pushed their record to 3-1 in those games as they got past McBain (6-5) for a sixth-straight District title.

Division 8

HEADLINER Reading 28, Cassopolis 6 A rematch of their 2017 Division 7 District Final – won by Cassopolis – was played out two years later, with Reading adding to its contender status as it looks to return to Ford Field after winning Division 8 last year. Cassopolis had given up more than 16 points only two other times over the last three seasons – and the last team to score 16 was Reading when Cassopolis won the 2017 matchup. Reading’s defense also did its part in this meeting, slowing way down a Cassopolis offense that was averaging 40 points per game. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

District Digest Ubly 34, Harbor Beach 20 The Bearcats (9-2) had lost to Harbor Beach five times over the last three seasons including 29-14 in Week 5 and in District games the last two years. The Pirates finished 10-1 and were a combined 21-3 over the last two seasons. Saginaw Nouvel 46, Breckenridge 28 The Panthers (7-4) clinched their second District title in three seasons by handing reigning Division 8 runner-up Breckenridge (9-2) its first loss since the season opener. Beal City 33, Johannesburg-Lewiston 20 The Aggies (10-1) are another team extending a great turnaround season after they finished 2-7 a year ago. The District title was their first since 2014 and ended another great run for Johannesburg-Lewiston (10-1), which hadn’t given up more than 21 points in a game this fall.

8-Player


Division 1

HEADLINER Morrice 50, Deckerville 24 The reigning Division 1 champion Orioles (10-1) hadn’t been discussed much since seeing a 20-game winning streak end in Week 8 against Crystal Falls Forest Park. But they’re a big part of the conversation again after handing Deckerville (10-1) its only loss, scoring 50 of the 134 points the Eagles gave up this season and stopping an offense that was averaging 46 points per contest. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.

Regional Roundup Suttons Bay 36, Gaylord St. Mary 30 The Norsemen (11-0) ended up with a Week 6 win over Gaylord St. Mary after the Snowbirds (5-6) had to forfeit that 48-47 victory. But Suttons Bay will play in the Semifinals for the first time since 2006 after holding off a late St. Mary’s comeback attempt in this rematch. Kingston 50, Mio 48 The Cardinals (9-2) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 1996 after finally overtaking Mio (9-2) late in the fourth quarter. Colon 56, Martin 12 The Magi (11-0) actually saw their average margin of victory fall in defeating the previously unbeaten Clippers (10-1). Colon is winning by 48 points per game with no opponent getting closer than 34.  


Division 2

HEADLINER Pickford 22, Powers North Central 14 The Panthers (10-1) avenged their only loss, a 20-14 defeat to the Jets (10-1) in Week 3, to earn a spot in the Semifinals for the fourth straight year and fourth in five seasons playing 8-player. Pickford, last season’s Division 1 runner-up, scored the go-ahead points during the final minute and held off the Jets’ final attempt to pull even. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.

Regional Roundup Hillman 48, Cedarville 44 Playing in its 14th straight playoffs, Hillman (10-1) has advanced to its first Semifinal by avenging last season’s 44-6 first-round loss to the Trojans (6-5). The Tigers also reached double-digit wins for the first time. Climax-Scotts 34, Onekama 22 The Panthers (9-2) will play in their first Semifinal since 2007 after eliminating last season’s Division 2 runner-up Portagers (7-4), whose four losses all came to teams still alive in the playoffs. Portland St. Patrick 51, Kinde North Huron 16 The Shamrocks (11-0) are headed back to the Semifinals for the third straight season after denying the Warriors (7-4) an opportunity to get back for the second time in three years.

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PHOTO: Ishpeming offensive linemen Victavian Hansen (77), Ben Pruett (14), and Dawson Delongchamp (17) make a hole for quarterback John Corkin (40), who gains several yards. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)