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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Review

November 4, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Everything starts fresh in the playoffs. It’s not supposed to matter which teams have dominated during the regular season or won the first time when two rivals are set to meet again.

When coaches need a little help convincing their players of any of that, they should remember this first weekend of the 2019 postseason.

Upsets abounded, rematches reversed, and a few brackets saw some serious shake-up during the Pre-District and Pre-Regional rounds in 11- and 8-player, respectively.

Our weekly review, playoff edition, glances at some of the results from every division as we move one step closer to Ford Field and the Superior Dome.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Macomb Dakota 34, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 13 The reigning Division 1 champion Big Reds (9-1) had won 23 straight games including three during that time over rival Dakota, but this year’s first meeting was an indication of what might be possible. Chippewa Valley won the Week 6 meeting only 27-21, and unlike last year – when the Big Reds won the regular-season game by seven and the playoff rematch by 41 – Dakota flipped the result for perhaps the biggest upset from a weekend full of them. Click for more from the Macomb Daily and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

District Digest East Kentwood 38, Rockford 12 This nearly overtook the above for biggest upset statewide. A week after Rockford (8-2) downed East Kentwood 17-7 to lock up the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title, the Falcons (6-4) stormed back to hand the Rams their earliest playoff exit since 2002. Belleville 49, Saline 10 This matchup of 2018 semifinalists went Belleville’s way big as the Tigers (10-0) achieved double-digit wins for the third straight season and held the Hornets (8-2) to their fewest points this season. Detroit Cass Tech 24, Grosse Pointe South 17 The Technicians (6-4) may have made the playoffs as an additional qualifier, but they always are tough to beat in the postseason and advanced to the District Finals for the 12th straight year. The Blue Devils finished 7-3. Davison 35, Romeo 21 The Cardinals (8-2) bounced back from a Week 9 loss to Lapeer and also a first-round playoff exit a year ago to get past Romeo (7-3) and earn a rematch this week with the Lightning.

Division 2

HEADLINER Detroit U-D Jesuit 34, North Farmington 21 The Cubs (7-3) did win the Detroit Catholic League AA title this fall, but had to beat Dearborn Divine Child a second time Week 9 to make the playoffs as an automatic qualifier. So on paper, they may not have been expected to hand North Farmington (9-1) its first and only loss – although digging deeper, it’s key to remember Jesuit’s defeats were to annual powers Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice, Detroit Catholic Central and Warren De La Salle Collegiate – valuable preparation for games of this magnitude. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

District Digest Farmington 12, Oak Park 6 The Falcons (8-1) fell short of winning the Oakland Activities Association Blue because of a four-point loss to North Farmington, but they’ll play for a District title after this win over the OAA White champion Knights (8-2). Midland Dow 27, Traverse City Central 24 The Chargers (7-3) are riding as hot a streak as any team in the state and followed up a league title-clinching win Week 9 by edging the Big North Conference champion Trojans (8-2). Muskegon Mona Shores 20, Midland 13 The Sailors (8-2) began a march they hope leads to a second-straight trip to Ford Field with a second straight win over the Chemics (8-2) after also defeating them in last year’s Semifinal. Port Huron 27, Port Huron Northern 21 The Big Reds (7-3) broke a three-game losing streak against their crosstown rival as they continued their best season since 2014. Northern (8-2) had won the first meeting Week 7, 29-26, but lost star defensive end Braiden McGregor to a season-ending injury in that victory.

Division 3

HEADLINER St. Johns 17, Mason 7 The Redwings (7-3) have made nice strides under first-year coach Andy Schmitt this fall, with their best record since 2015. But they’ve also made big improvements over just the last five weeks – St. Johns had fallen to Mason 46-7 in Week 5, and the Bulldogs (9-1) went on to achieve their first undefeated regular season. The rematch win gave the Redwings a 6-2 advantage on Mason since the teams became part of the same league in 2014. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights from WILX.

District Digest DeWitt 21, East Lansing 13 On the other side of the District from St. Johns, DeWitt (8-2) avenged its only Capital Area Activities Conference Blue defeat by downing the Trojans (7-3) in a matchup of two of the three teams that shared the league title. Flint Kearsley 20, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 19 The Hornets (8-2) made their first playoff game since 1998 count winning a game that saw both teams score during the final minutes. Rice finished 6-4. Cedar Springs 34, Mount Pleasant 7 The Red Hawks (9-1) will play for a District title for the third-straight season after opening the playoffs for the second straight with a win over the Oilers (7-3). Zeeland West 38, Zeeland East 7 The Dux (9-1) avoided the rematch upset that had occurred between these rivals in the playoffs three of the last seven years, finishing a season sweep of the neighboring Chix (5-5).

Division 4

HEADLINER Sparta 35, Muskegon Orchard View 0 This looked on paper like potentially one of the first round’s best matchups, and Sparta (9-1) showed up big in its first playoff game since 2013. The Spartans not only handed Orchard View (9-1) its lone loss, but shut out an offense averaging 40.7 points per game entering the weekend. See highlights below from FOX 17.

District Digest Grand Rapids South Christian 31, Grand Rapids Christian 28 The Sailors had given Grand Rapids Christian (7-3) one of the latter’s two closest O-K Gold games, losing by just seven Week 7. South Christian (6-4) avenged that 27-20 defeat, hanging on after a late Eagles score. Cadillac 35, Escanaba 12 The Vikings’ first playoff win since 2013 came at Escanaba (7-3) against a team that had won three straight District titles. Cadillac (6-4) heads back over the Bridge this week to Sault Ste. Marie. Fowlerville 29, Goodrich 28 (OT) The Gladiators (7-3) went for a 2-point conversion after its overtime touchdown and knocked out a league champion in the Martians (7-3). Milan 14, Carleton Airport 13 The Big Reds (10-0) narrowly escaped joining the list of those who suffered rematch downfalls, getting past Airport (6-4) for the second time in three weeks after winning the Week 8 meeting 20-6.

Division 5

HEADLINER Almont 30, Richmond 20 The Raiders traveled to Richmond (8-2) for the second time in four weeks and came home victorious again against the team it defeated previously to clinch a share of the Blue Water Area Conference title. Almont (10-0), which then won the league outright, also reached double-digit wins for the second-straight season and will play this week for what would be its first District title since 2014. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

District Digest Kalamazoo United 16, Berrien Springs 12 The Titans (6-4) are surging, claiming a share of their league title Week 9 against previously-unbeaten Schoolcraft and this week ending the season for another undefeated team in the Shamrocks (8-1). Lansing Catholic 28, Olivet 21 The Cougars (9-1) got past Olivet (8-2) in the first round for the third-straight year to again earn a chance to avenge its only loss against rival Portland. Dearborn Heights Robichaud 29, Dundee 28 A fourth-quarter score gave the Bulldogs (8-2) their first playoff win since 2015 and sent Dundee to 5-5, still tying its winningest season since 2012. Whitmore Lake 45, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 28 The Trojans (8-2) earned their first postseason win since 2006 by avenging a 22-20 Week 5 loss to the Fighting Irish (5-5).

Division 6

HEADLINER Sanford Meridian 19, Ithaca 14 Talk about perseverance. The Mustangs (7-3) are in the playoffs for the first time since 2015 and after three straight sub-.500 seasons. During their last three-year playoff stretch from 2013-15, they were eliminated by Ithaca (8-2) twice. And Meridian also put this win together on the road and coming off its third loss over the final five weeks of the regular season. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

District Digest Menominee 48, Ishpeming Westwood 18 The Maroons (7-3) moved to 24-8 in playoff contests this decade and appear to be heating up with at least 47 points for the third straight game, this total the most given up by Westwood (7-3) since 2013. Harrison 38, Clare 6 The Pioneers (8-2) rarely lose during the Jack Pine Conference season, but Harrison (6-4) came back from a 42-40 Week 3 defeat to win this rematch 38-6. Constantine 58, Niles Brandywine 8 The Falcons’ best season since 2014 now includes a share of a league title and handing the only loss to Brandywine (9-1). Constantine (8-2) increased its points per game average to 42.3. Millington 21, Flint Hamady 14 The Cardinals (6-4) extended their playoff season streak to 16 as an additional qualifier, then opened the postseason by defeating a league champion in Hamady (7-2).

Division 7

HEADLINER Riverview Gabriel Richard 17, Clinton 14 The Pioneers won on a field goal as the final seconds ticked off the clock. Gabriel Richard (8-2) has had a nice run over the last five years and will play in its fourth District Final during that time and third straight. But this still likely was considered a slight upset with Clinton (9-1) undefeated for the regular season for the fifth time in eight years and having beaten all but one of its opponents this fall by double digits. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

District Digest Charlevoix 32, Harbor Springs 0 The Rayders (7-3) won in the playoffs for the first time with their first shutout of the season and after also defeating Harbor Springs (6-4) 47-27 in Week 9. McBain 14, Oscoda 12 The Owls (8-2) were playing for their first playoff win since 2000, but McBain (6-4) held on to book a return trip to the District Finals. Lawton 7, Centreville 3 These teams combined to gain only 384 yards and punt seven times, which made sense since Lawton (10-0) gives up 7.8 points per game and Centreville (6-4) gave up 8.6 per game this fall. Detroit Loyola 26, Detroit Central 12 After facing six eventual playoff qualifiers during the regular season, Loyola (5-4) made the prep pay off in handing Central (8-2) its first defeat since Week 1.

Division 8

HEADLINER Flint Beecher 52, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 25 Beecher (6-3) worked through a 1-2 start and then an open Week 7 to reach the postseason, then kickoff off the playoffs by handing the Mountaineers (8-1) their only defeat. The teams had also met in the playoffs last year, a 22-14 Buccaneers District Final win, and this time Beecher took off for its highest-scoring game of the fall.

District Digest Lake Linden-Hubbell 36, West Iron County 14 The Lakes’ first playoff win since 2016 improved them to 7-3 and avenged a 24-16 Week 6 loss to the Wykons (7-3). Saginaw Nouvel 33, Merrill 13 Three straight losses at the end of the regular season forced Nouvel (6-4) to win Week 9 to have a chance at earning an additional qualifier spot, and now the Panthers are on a two-win streak after downing the Vandals (6-4). Reading 38, Mendon 0 The reigning Division 8 champ Rangers (9-1) started this playoff run with their fourth shutout over the last five weeks, ending Mendon’s season at 7-3. Sand Creek 52, Addison 24 The Aggies (8-2) finished third in a strong Tri-County Conference and earned the league more fame by doubling up the Cascades Conference-winning Panthers (7-3).

8-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Gaylord St. Mary 48, Pellston 6 The Snowbirds (5-5) quickly ended Pellston’s first playoffs, locking down an offense that averaged 42.4 points per game. The Hornets’ only other defeat this fall came against Hillman as they finished 8-2 to end a streak of 22 straight sub-.500 seasons. Next up for St. Mary is Suttons Bay, which it beat on the field by a point in Week 6. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald Times.

Regional Roundup Mio 34, Mayville 22 The Thunderbolts (9-1) extended their first 8-player season with their first playoff win since 2010, ending what tied for the winningest season for Mayville (6-4) since 1987. Kingston 58, Mesick 22 The Cardinals (8-2) made their first Regional Final since 2014 by defeating a league champion in Mesick (7-3), which concluded its winningest season since 1995. Martin 28, Bellevue 0 The Clippers (10-0) reached double-digit wins for the first time since 1987 with their first playoff victory since 2007, handing Bellevue (6-4) its first shutout since 2016.

Division 2

HEADLINER Powers North Central 46, Crystal Falls Forest Park 28 These rivals were two of the top seven teams in Division 2 by playoff point average, with North Central tied for the top spot. After falling in the teams’ first meeting 34-8, Forest Park scored first in the rematch but couldn’t keep pace with a Jets offense averaging 53.3 points per game. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Regional Roundup Onekama 22, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 20 The reigning Division 2 runner-up escaped a quicker exit against former league foe Tri-unity (5-5), which had beaten the Portagers (7-3) by two when they last met a year ago. Pickford 57, Engadine 12 The reigning Division 1 runner-up earned its second win this season over Engadine (8-2), which lost only to Pickford (9-1) this fall. Climax-Scotts 26, Brethren 6 The Panthers (8-2) bounced back from a two-point Week 9 loss to unbeaten Martin with a nice win over a Brethren team that strung together back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time and finished this fall 5-5.

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PHOTO: After breaking a couple of tackles and almost getting pushed out of bounds, Menominee's Keagan Moore dives for the end zone and scores. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)