Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Preview

October 31, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Whether your team's preferred final destination is Ford Field in Detroit or the Superior Dome in Marquette, the first steps will be taken this weekend during 144 MHSAA Playoff games across both peninsulas. 

Someone's season is on the line in every game from here on out, and below we take a glance at a matchup in each division that is especially notable during these first rounds of the 11 and 8-player tournaments. 

Don't let a little cool weather keep you out of the stands and supporting your favorite team at this most exciting time of year. But if you choose to stay in, take in one or more of the 30 games being broadcast on FOX Sports Detroit Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv. Click for listings and check back with MHSAA.com all weekend for scores and updated brackets. 

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

11-Player

Division 1

Saline (8-1) at Belleville (9-0), Saturday

This is the most power-packed opener in any division, with both teams making Division 1 Semifinals a year ago. Both have faced four playoff teams this fall, and the only loss between them was Saline’s Week 1 defeat against reigning champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. The Hornets are familiar with this time of year with six District titles over the last seven seasons and a Division 1 runner-up finish in 2014. But Belleville has seemed on the verge of a Ford Field run with now three straight perfect regular seasons and, like Saline, all but one of its wins this fall by double digits.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Brighton (7-2) at Holt (7-2), Davison (7-2) at Romeo (7-2), Rochester Adams (7-2) at Utica Eisenhower (7-2), Detroit Cass Tech (5-4) at Grosse Pointe South (7-2).

Division 2

Muskegon Mona Shores (7-2) at Midland (8-1)

This is a rematch of a 2018 Division 2 Semifinal won by the Sailors 49-28. Both of these teams were stung late this fall but should be dangerous again with fresh starts that come with the playoffs. Mona Shores, which went on last season to finish D2 runner-up, has losses to two league champions including big to rival Muskegon High two weeks ago in a matchup that determined the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title. Midland was defeated by a similar score last week by rival Midland Dow as the two shared the Saginaw Valley League Red title. The winner of this District opener could see Dow next week – the Chargers take on Big North Conference champion Traverse City Central on the other side of the District bracket.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY South Lyon (8-1) at Fenton (8-1), Farmington (7-1) at Oak Park (8-1), Port Huron (6-3) at Port Huron Northern (8-1). SATURDAY Detroit U-D Jesuit (6-3) at North Farmington (9-0).

Division 3

DeWitt (7-2) at East Lansing (7-2)

This is one of the most highly-anticipated rematches of the first week, with these two and Holt having shared the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title, and with the Panthers and Trojans finishing with the same playoff point average – East Lansing got the home game because of its 21-2 win over DeWitt in Week 5. Minus that performance, the Panthers averaged 39.6 points per game this fall – so expecting another all-out shutdown by the Trojans’ defense might be an unfair ask. But DeWitt’s defense also will have to deliver, as East Lansing’s offense (32.7 ppg) is scoring at its highest pace in decades.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lowell (5-4) at East Grand Rapids (6-3), Zeeland East (5-4) at Zeeland West (8-1), St. Joseph (6-3) at Edwardsburg (9-0), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (6-3) at Flint Kearsley (7-2).

Division 4

Sparta (8-1) at Muskegon Orchard View (9-0)

Both of these teams have enjoyed banner seasons. Orchard View posted its first winning record since 2014, earned its first playoff berth since 2008, won the Lakes 8 Conference title and finished the regular season perfect for the first time since 2005. Sparta made the playoffs for the first time since 2013, tying its most wins since 2011 with its best regular-season record since 2006. The Spartans finished second in the O-K Blue to Grand Rapids Catholic Central, which faces Allendale on the other side of this District bracket. Orchard View did beat five playoff teams on the way to the playoffs. But comparing their lone shared opponent, Sparta downed playoff qualifier Spring Lake 38-3 in Week 3 after Orchard View defeated the Lakers 22-17 on opening night.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fowlerville (6-3) at Goodrich (7-2), North Branch (7-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-1), Ortonville Brandon (7-2) at St. Clair (8-1).

Division 5

Almont (9-0) at Richmond (8-1)

This is a rare occurrence; Almont defeated Richmond in Week 7 28-10 and went on to win the Blue Water Area Conference title outright while closing out its second-straight perfect regular season. However, the Blue Devils’ nonleague opponents both made the playoffs, and the bonus for playing those teams was enough to push Richmond past Almont into a home game this week. The Raiders, however, also won the first Richmond game this fall on the road, and their annually-awesome defense continues to play anywhere. Almont has given up 69 points this fall – 39 over five home games and 30 over four away. But take away the first Almont matchup, and Richmond is averaging a robust 33.5 points per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Central Montcalm (7-2) at Portland (7-2), Olivet (8-1) at Lansing Catholic (8-1), Reed City (6-3) at Kingsley (9-0), Kalamazoo United (5-4) at Berrien Springs (8-0).

Division 6

Menominee (6-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (7-2), Saturday

Menominee is the smallest of Great Northern Conference schools and will play in Division 6 this playoffs after years in Division 4 and then Division 5. That has the Maroons matching up with many of the best from the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, including Westwood for the first time. The Patriots finished third in the Iron, the strongest of the two West PAC divisions this fall – and they also beat Copper champion Ishpeming 38-0 in Week 4. But Menominee presents an all-new challenge, and the Maroons are on a roll after putting up 48 points last week in handing Division 5 contender Hopkins its only loss this fall.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Lake City (6-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (8-1), Ravenna (7-2) at Muskegon Catholic Central (6-2), Jonesville (6-3) at Hillsdale (9-0), Constantine (7-2) at Niles Brandywine (9-0).

Division 7

Detroit Loyola (4-4) at Detroit Central (8-1)

While Cass Tech and Martin Luther King always get the bulk of attention out of the Detroit Public School League, Central has earned recognition too winning the PSL Division 3 title and 3/4 championship game. There are seven unbeaten teams in the Division 7 bracket, and they’re getting the most attention. But the Trail Blazers have won eight straight games (including a forfeit) since falling to Dearborn Heights Crestwood in Week 1. Loyola is a deceptive 4-4, considering the high level of competition it faces. A Central win in this one would further announce the Blazers will be tough to beat.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Harbor Springs (6-3) at Charlevoix (6-3), Byron (6-3) at Beaverton (9-0), Centreville (6-3) at Lawton (9-0). SATURDAY Houghton Lake (6-3) at Traverse City St. Francis (6-3).

Division 8

Addison (7-2) at Sand Creek (7-2)

Both of these teams have faced and will be ready for top competition. Cascades Conference champion Addison is hitting the road to start the playoffs, seeking its first postseason win since 2007 and after closing the regular season against reigning Division 8 champion Reading. Sand Creek tied for second in the Tri-County Conference, but behind undefeated Division 7 contender Clinton and with the same TCC record as annual Division 8 challenger Ottawa Lake Whiteford. The Aggies also finished just ahead of Britton Deerfield thanks to a 50-22 Week 5 win – four weeks after B-D defeated Addison 28-16 to open the season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Flint Beecher (5-3) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-0), Mendon (7-2) at Reading (8-1), White Pigeon (7-2) at Cassopolis (9-0). SATURDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (5-4) at Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (7-2).

8-Player

Division 1

Gaylord St. Mary (4-5) at Pellston (8-1)

Pellston is one of three teams statewide making its playoff debut this weekend, boasting its first winning regular-season record since 1995. The Hornets’ only loss was the eventual Midwest Central Michigan Conference East champion Hillman, and they are riding an offense scoring just more than 46 points per game. St. Mary’s story has been well-publicized; the Snowbirds had to forfeit four wins earlier this fall but won their final two games to still make the playoffs. On the field they’ve averaged nearly 58 points per game, making this a likely offensive showdown regardless of the possible wintery weather.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mesick (7-2) at Kingston (7-2), Bellevue (6-3) at Martin (9-0), New Haven Merritt (8-1) at Morrice (8-1).

Division 2

Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-2) at Powers North Central (9-0)

One of the best Upper Peninsula rivalries of the last half-decade will play out again after the teams previously met in Week 6 – a 34-8 Jets win that helped lock up the Great Lakes Conference West title. These two have met in the playoffs as well the last three years – and combined for three straight MHSAA Finals championship from 2015-17 – and last year the Trojans avenged a 24-point regular-season loss with a 12-point win over the Jets in Pre-Regional play. The first meeting this fall, North Central contained an offense that otherwise has averaged 51.8 points per game. Not counting a forfeit win last week, the Jets had three shutouts and gave up only six points per game during this regular season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Engadine (8-1) at Pickford (8-1), Brethren (5-4) at Climax-Scotts (7-2), Kinde North Huron (6-3) at Peck (5-4).

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PHOTO: North Central clears a pylon for a score during a 54-0 win over Newberry on Oct. 11. (Photo by Jeff Rochefort.)