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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 9 in Review

October 28, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Just like that, nine weeks of Michigan high school football have come and gone this fall, and more than half the state’s 600+ teams are turning in their helmets and pads as we turn our attention toward the final 288 playing for MHSAA championships.

But let’s not skip by Week 9 just yet. It definitely deserves a few more minutes of our time and attention. 

The regular season made plenty of noise on its way out this weekend, with a few surprise conclusions to league title races and plenty of teams with plenty to celebrate. Some of those achievements were obvious, some not, and below we tried to cover many in both categories.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Lapeer 24, Davison 21 (2OT) For the second-straight year, the Saginaw Valley League Blue title came down to these two in a regular-season finale. And this one came down to a pair of field goal attempts in double overtime – Lapeer (8-1) made its kick and then blocked Davison’s to lock up the win and the repeat championship after also defeating the Cardinals (7-2) in the clincher a year ago. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Midland Dow 42, Midland 7 The Chargers (6-3) started this season 2-3 and lost a Week 5 league game to Saginaw Heritage, which finished 4-5. But they battled all the way back and clinched a shared league title with the Chemics (8-1) by breaking a three-game losing streak against their rivals.  

Remember this one Millington 41, Central Montcalm 18 The Cardinals (5-4) needed to close with a significant win to extend their playoff streak to 16 years, and they made it as an additional qualifier after defeating a league champion in Central Montcalm (7-2).

More shoutouts Harbor Beach 21, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 6 The Pirates (9-0) finished their third undefeated regular season this decade and first since 2014, with Laker (6-3) one of four opponents that also made the playoffs. Flint Hamady 56, Flint Southwestern 18 The Hawks (7-1) locked up the Genesee Area Conference title outright to go with their win in the old GAC Blue a year ago. 

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Orchard Lake St. Mary's 13, Detroit Catholic Central 0 The co-champions of the Detroit Catholic League Central met again two weeks after DCC’s 20-14 win sealed the shared title. The Eaglets (8-1) avenged as well as any team could hope, not only claiming the Prep Bowl Bishop championship but also keeping the Shamrocks (4-5) from advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Watch list Belleville 41, Plymouth 14 The Tigers (9-0) capped a third-straight undefeated regular season with another Kensington Lakes Activities Association overall title, in this KLAA final handing Plymouth (8-1) its only loss.

Remember this one Detroit Martin Luther King 27, Detroit Denby 6 The Crusaders (7-2) have rebounded from losses to DCC and Muskegon to open this season to win a third straight league championship and this PSL 1/2 final. Denby also is 7-2, with its losses both to King.

More shoutouts Brownstown Woodhaven 49, Birmingham Groves 28 The Warriors (9-0) locked up their second perfect regular season over the last six with a season-high scoring output against Groves (7-2). West Bloomfield 16, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 8 The Lakers (8-1) brought their average points allowed down to 12 with a near-shutout of the two-time reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (5-4), whose last three defeats have been by a combined 12 points.  

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER New Lothrop 42, Frankenmuth 22 Three games this weekend matched undefeated teams, and reigning Division 7 champion New Lothrop (9-0) made a statement handing a loss to Division 5 Frankenmuth (8-1). The Hornets completed their eighth unbeaten regular season over the last 10 years, locking it up by scoring more than double the number of points the Eagles allowed in any other game going back to Week 2 of 2018. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Watch list Pewamo-Westphalia 41, Williamston 0 Last year the Pirates got past the Hornets by a point in Week 9 on the way to the Division 7 Regional Finals. This time, P-W (9-0) earned its sixth shutout of the season, impressive even more considering the Hornets (5-4) are headed back to the Division 4 playoffs.

Remember this one Mason 48, Eaton Rapids 6 The Bulldogs, 5-4 last season and 2-7 in 2017, finished their first 9-0 regular season – an accomplishment made more impressive considering Mason had finished with one regular-season loss nine times over the last 35 years.  

More shoutouts Holt 42, Grand Ledge 37 The Rams (7-2) held on against the rival Comets (2-7) to clinch a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title (with East Lansing and DeWitt) and guarantee their winningest season since 2010. St. Johns 21, Alpena 20 (OT) The Redwings (6-3) went to overtime to guarantee a playoff berth in coach Andy Schmitt’s first season and in the process ended any hopes for Alpena (4-5), which was hoping to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004.  

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 41, Cadillac 13 The Trojans (8-1) finished an outright championship run through the Big North Conference with their fifth straight win over Cadillac. Central hasn’t lost since Week 1 against DeWitt, which also went on to share a league title this fall. There’s a consolation, however, for the Vikings (5-4) – they’re back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and after going a combined 3-15 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Ogemaw Heights 30, Houghton Lake 18 The Falcons improved to 7-2, their best and also first winning record since 2013, and this win over Houghton Lake (6-3) arguably was the best of the run so far. The Falcons’ losses were to two other playoff teams, Kingsley and Sault Ste. Marie.

Remember this one Lake City 14, Sanford Meridian 10 Lake City’s streak of two straight undefeated regular seasons ended opening night. But the Trojans won four straight to get back to the playoffs for the third-straight year, with this win over Meridian (6-3) arguably their best this fall.

More shoutouts Johannesburg-Lewiston 47, Indian River Inland Lakes 0 The Cardinals finished the regular season 9-0 for the first time since 1998 and finished an outright championship run through the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy division. Kingsley 44, Boyne City 16 The Stags (9-0) had a similar story in the NMFL Legends, with this win completing a run to an outright title and their first perfect regular season since 2005.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Reading 51, Addison 6 The reigning Division 8 champion Rangers appear to be in postseason form after winning this crossover of winners from the Big 8 and Cascades conferences. Reading was the Big 8’s best for the third straight season and hasn’t scored fewer than 44 points in a game since being shut out opening night by still-undefeated Division 7 contender Pewamo-Westphalia. Cascades champion Addison (7-2) could see Reading again in the Regional Final. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Watch list Saline 45, Grand Blanc 27 The Hornets are headed into arguably the toughest District in the state, regardless of division, but not without some momentum. Saline (8-1) is unbeaten since falling opening night to reigning Division 1 champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Grand Blanc (5-4) scored the second-most points the Hornets have given up this fall, but Saline reached 400 points for the season – 40 more over nine games than the Hornets scored over 13 last season when they made the Semifinals.   

Remember this one Whitmore Lake 41, Livonia Clarenceville 6 The Trojans’ first season in the Michigan Independent Athletic Conference now includes the outright league title, a first playoff berth since 2013 and at 7-2 its most wins since 2008. Clarenceville did miss the playoffs, but at 5-4 posted its first winning season since 2013.

More shoutouts Concord 51, Hanover-Horton 49 The Yellow Jackets (5-4) pushed back into the playoffs for the first time since 2016 with their first winning record since that year, while also dashing the hopes for Hanover-Horton (4-5) as it sought its first playoff berth since 2014. Grass Lake 26, Jonesville 24 The Cascades took this matchup of runners-up as Grass Lake (8-1) received one of its toughest challenges from the Comets (6-3), who have a winning record and made the playoffs both for the first time since 2013.  

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Edwardsburg 44, Paw Paw 14 This decade now has included eight league championships for the Eddies, who locked up another in the Wolverine Conference as well as their fourth perfect regular season over the last five years. This matchup was for the outright title as Paw Paw (8-1) also hadn’t lost heading into the weekend. But Edwardsburg put up nearly half of the 92 points the Redskins have given up all season.

Watch list Portage Northern 49, St. Joseph 26 The co-leaders of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West also played for that outright championship, with Portage Northern (8-1) claiming it after sharing the title with Portage Central a year ago. St. Joseph (6-3) will try to bounce back from three straight losses as it heads into the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

Remember this one Kalamazoo United 35, Schoolcraft 27 Perhaps this shouldn’t be considered a stunner – the Titans won the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley a year ago. But United (5-4) also bounced back from an 0-3 start and a loss in Week 8 to Constantine to deliver Schoolcraft (8-1) its only defeat – and turn the league title into a three-team share between the Titans, Eagles and Falcons.

More shoutouts Mattawan 32, Stevensville Lakeshore 6 The Wildcats (5-4) won four straight to get back to the playoffs for the third-straight year, and in the process ended Lakeshore’s bid to make the playoffs for the 22nd straight season by sending the Lancers to 4-5. Niles Brandywine 52, Buchanan 38 The Bobcats are 9-0 for the first time since 1995 after putting up 50 points for the fifth time this season to increase their scoring average to 50.3 points per game.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 31, Kingsford 7 The Redmen (5-4) did it all in their regular-season finale, clinching the Great Northern Conference title outright while locking up their first winning regular-season record and playoff berth both since 2014. In the process they ended the postseason hopes for Kingsford, which at 4-5 fell a win shy of consideration for the second straight year. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Menominee 48, Hopkins 38 The Maroons may have had a chance to get back to the playoffs at 5-4, but guaranteed a spot finishing 6-3 with this win over the Vikings (8-1), winners of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver this fall.

Remember this one Ishpeming Westwood 42, Negaunee 14 The Patriots (7-2) have beaten Negaunee in three straight, but the Miners (6-3) can earn a rematch as they line up on opposite sides of the same Division 6 District.

More shoutouts Ishpeming 54, Bark River-Harris 8 The Hematites (7-2) finished a perfect run through the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron – and will see Bark River-Harris (5-4) again this week in a Division 8 opener. Iron Mountain 42, Gogebic 14 The Mountaineers (9-0) claimed the outright West PAC Copper title and finished the regular season unbeaten for the first time since 2011.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 17, East Kentwood 7 The last two weeks in the O-K Red have been unpredictable to say the least. Week 8 saw Grandville down Rockford 30-3 to move into a first-place tie with a game to play for both. Rockford (8-1) took care of its end of winning the league title with this victory over East Kentwood. And the Rams finished the weekend outright champs after Caledonia upset the Bulldogs 56-35. Rockford’s win avenged a loss last season to the Falcons – and the Rams can double up as they face East Kentwood (5-4) again in a Division 1 opener this week. See below for highlights from FOX 17.

Watch list Hudsonville Unity Christian 55, Zeeland East 28 The Crusaders (6-3) needed a victory to guarantee returning to the playoffs after winning Division 5 a year ago – and they got it by avenging last season’s defeat to Zeeland East (5-4), one of two teams to beat Unity during the 2018 title run.

Remember this one Grand Haven 37, Grand Rapids Union 6 The Buccaneers (5-4) finished the regular season with a winning record and earned a playoff spot both for the first time since 2011 after closing with four straight victories.

More shoutouts Muskegon Oakridge 25, Traverse City St. Francis 20 The Eagles (9-0) finished their first perfect regular season since 2012 with a final defensive stand against another annual power in St. Francis (6-3). Montague 18, Portland 14 Downing last season’s Division 5 runner-up Portland (7-2) was a huge way to ride into the playoffs for Montague, which was runner-up in Division 6 last year.

8-Player

HEADLINER Gaylord St. Mary 53, Brethren 14 Prospects turned dim when St. Mary had to forfeit four wins three weeks ago. But the Snowbirds (4-5) did everything possible to get into the playoffs, with this victory over Brethen (5-4) joining a Week 8 win over Mio that helped them accumulate enough points to earn a spot in the Division 1 bracket. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald Times.

Watch list Martin 26, Climax-Scotts 24 The Clippers (9-0) just continue to impress, this weekend getting past Climax-Scotts (7-2) to lock up their first perfect regular season since 1987, in this their first season of 8-player football.

Remember this one Sutton Bay 27, Mesick 18 The Norsemen (9-0) closed the regular season winning this matchup of league champions over Mesick (7-2), which still finished with its best regular-season record since 1995.

More shoutouts Engadine 54, Cedarville 20 The Eagles (8-1) ran their winning streak over Cedarville (5-4) to five; Engadine’s only regular-season losses the last two seasons have come to Pickford, this week’s playoff opponent. Deckerville 48, Peck 0 The Eagles (9-0) finished their second straight North Central Thumb League Blue outright title and third perfect regular season this decade with their sixth-straight win over Peck (5-4). 

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PHOTO: Lapeer rumbled to a 24-21 double overtime win over Davison in Week 9 to lock up the Saginaw Valley League Blue championship. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)