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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review

October 21, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

A season’s worth of highlights are smashing into these final weeks of the regular season.

So this Week 8 “Review” starts with some table-setters before we try to catch up with many more headliners from the weekend.

• River Rouge downed Detroit Catholic Central 16-3 in a meeting of league champions.

• Belleville got past Livonia Franklin and Clinton Township Chippewa Valley defeated Romeo to lock up outright league titles instead of ending up with shared championships.

• Newaygo downed Reed City, giving Central Montcalm an outright league title a year after going 0-9.

• Cedar Springs and Grand Rapids Catholic Central also earned championship shares.

• Posen’s 70-68 win over Au Gres-Sims tied for the fourth highest-scoring 8-player game in state history where the losing team scored at least 40 points.

And don’t forget: In six days, we’ll start this thing over with a fortunate 288 teams setting their sights on the ultimate high school football prize.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Midland Dow 13, Mount Pleasant 12 THE GAME in this area for Week 6 was Mount Pleasant vs. Midland, and the Chemics’ one-point win put them in first alone in the Saginaw Valley League Red. Now rival Dow (5-3) has put itself in position to claim a share of the league title, after chasing the leaders since losing big to Saginaw Heritage in Week 5. Dow faces Midland this week. The Oilers (6-2), meanwhile, have lost their two games by yes, a combined two points. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Watch list Lapeer 34, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 10 The Lightning (7-1) will play Davison this week for the outright SVL Blue title. They’ll be riding a boatload of momentum not only with seven straight wins but this one over annual playoff qualifier Brother Rice (5-3) – which must win this week to guarantee a 20th postseason berth over the last 21 seasons.

Remember this one Fenton 42, Goodrich 21 The Flint Metro League split into divisions this season, and the “Upper” champion Tigers (7-1) doubled up the “Lower” champion Martians (6-2) in this first crossover matchup.

More shoutouts Flint Powers Catholic 28, Grand Blanc 24 In the crossover of runners-up in the Flint Metro League, Powers (6-2) clinched a playoff berth for the sixth straight season and put Grand Blanc (5-3) in a position where it must win this week to guarantee advancing for the fourth straight year. Marine City 34, Marysville 3 The Mariners (8-0) finished a perfect run through the Macomb Area Conference Silver and sent the Vikings (5-3) into a must-win-to-get-in playoff scenario as well.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER North Farmington 13, Farmington 9 The closing of Farmington Hills Harrison this spring certainly changed up football in this community – and heightened this rivalry in the process. The neighbors wasted no time giving this year’s matchup plenty of significance, as North’s first win over Farmington since 2015 gave the Raiders (8-0) their most wins for a season since 1984 and more importantly, the outright Oakland Activities Association Blue championship. Click for more from the Oakland Press and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.  

Watch list Dearborn Heights Robichaud 28, Garden City 26 The Bulldogs (7-1) and Redford Thurston ended up co-champions of the Western Wayne Athletic Conference thanks to Robichaud’s close win over Garden City (5-3) and Thurston’s one-pointer over Redford Union. Robichaud also earned a one-point win over Thurston in Week 3 but fell to Union in Week 6.

Remember this one Clarkston Everest Collegiate 27, Royal Oak Shrine 14 The Mountaineers (7-0) locked up their third straight Detroit Catholic League Intersectional II title and this one outright by sending Shrine (6-2) into second place after Shrine (6-2) last season won this matchup to force Everest to share with Madison Heights Bishop Foley.

More shoutouts Clawson 24, Clinton Township Clintondale 6 This matchup was for the outright MAC Bronze title, and Clawson (5-3) won it after finishing runner-up in the league a year ago. Clintondale (5-3) must defeat Hazel Park this week to guarantee a playoff berth. Harrison Township L'Anse Creuse 23, Sterling Heights 20 The Lancers (5-3) guaranteed their best finish since 2012 and shook up the MAC Gold, creating a final three-way shared championship between themselves, Sterling Heights (5-3) and Eastpointe (5-3).

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 21, Portland 17 As the regular season worked its way to the end, these two stood alone as undefeated in all of the Capital Area Activities Conference. And Mason (8-0), enjoying perhaps its best season ever and first time at 8-0, owns the claim to the top spot in any of the divisions after handing the Raiders (7-1) their first regular-season loss since Week 2 of 2017. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Pewamo-Westphalia 41, Fowler 7 The Pirates (8-0) look geared up to make a run at a third MHSAA championship in four seasons as they ran their Central Michigan Athletic Conference title streak to five by handing Fowler (7-1) its lone defeat.

Remember this one DeWitt 30, St. Joseph 14 The Panthers (6-2) can lock up a share of the CAAC Blue title this week, and could also end up owning wins against two more league champs if St. Joseph (6-2) gets past Portage Northern on Friday.

More shoutouts Lansing Catholic 56, Fowlerville 7 Since falling to Portland by a point in Week 5, Lansing Catholic (7-1) has won its next three by a combined 136-21 including this week scoring the most Fowlerville (6-2) had given up since 2015. Williamston 35, Olivet 28 The Hornets (5-3) entered Week 7 at 4-2 and with three undefeated teams left on their schedule. They fell to Mason, but this weekend handed Olivet (7-1) its lone loss. Next up: P-W with the playoffs on the line.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Maple City Glen Lake 42, Charlevoix 18 The Lakers (7-1) quickly bounced back from a Week 7 loss to Kingsley to lock up the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders championship, their fourth straight. Glen Lake with a win this week also can finish its best regular season since 2013. Charlevoix (5-3) ended second in the Leaders and must defeat NMFL Legacy contender Harbor Springs this week to guarantee getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list McBain 27, Beal City 0 From a 1-3 start, McBain (5-3) has jumped all the way to the verge of a playoff berth. And the Ramblers should be Houghton Lake’s second-favorite team, as this win created a shared Highland Conference championship between the Bobcats and the Aggies (7-1).

Remember this one Traverse City Central 62, Escanaba 7 Since falling to DeWitt on opening night, Central (7-1) has been on a tear winning all but one of its games by at least 32 points. Including a Week 2 nine-point win over Marquette, this gave the Trojans victories against the top two teams in the Great Northern Conference and after Central fell to the Eskymos (6-2) a year ago.

More shoutouts Ogemaw Heights 24, Grayling 14 The Falcons (6-2) clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 and at six wins have as many as the last five seasons combined. East Jordan 21, Mancelona 6 While there will be no playoffs this season for the Red Devils, they’ve improved substantially after two straight one-win seasons – and may have stifled the playoff hopes for Mancelona (4-4), which must win this week and hope to make the field for the first time since 2014 as an additional qualifier.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Milan 20, Carleton Airport 6 The Big Reds (8-0) finished a perfect run through a Huron League that could send half its teams to the playoffs if Carleton Airport (5-3) can finish the regular season with a win this week. Milan had finished second both seasons since its last championship in 2016, and this year’s was the Big Reds’ first outright league title since 2013. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.

Watch list Addison 48, Napoleon 10 The Panthers (7-1) locked up their second Cascades Conference championship in three seasons, and this one outright. A win this week would guarantee Addison its best regular-season record since 2006.

Remember this one Hillsdale 21, Brooklyn Columbia Central 6 The Hornets shared the Lenawee County Athletic Association title last season with Columbia Central (4-4), and this time downed the Golden Eagles to clinch a share. Hillsdale (8-0) can win it outright this week against Dundee.

More shoutouts Grass Lake 25, Manchester 8 The Warriors (7-1) ended up second in the Cascades Conference after winning a year ago, and pushed third-place Manchester (5-3) into a must-win situation this week as the Flying Dutchmen look to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Jackson Lumen Christi 49, Battle Creek Pennfield 14 The Titans (8-0) have won three Interstate 8 Athletic Conference titles in four seasons and the last two outright. This win extended their overall winning streak to 31.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Lawton 20, Saugatuck 14 The Blue Devils (8-0) avoided a potential three-team championship in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore with wins the last two weeks over Fennville and then Saugatuck (3-5), which finished tied for second. The league title is Lawton’s first since 2012 and first outright since 2010, and the Blue Devils also can equal that team’s perfect regular season with a win over Comstock this week. Click below for highlights from FOX17.

Watch list Battle Creek Lakeview 54, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 14 The Spartans (8-0) locked up their first Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title since 2015 and outright league championship since 2014. They also moved to 8-0 for the first time since 2013, with a chance to avenge last year’s loss to Battle Creek Harper Creek up next.  

Remember this one White Pigeon 8, Mendon 6 The Chiefs (7-1) made headlines a year ago when they beat Mendon (6-2) for the first time in two decades, but they then fell to the Hornets five weeks later in a first-round playoff game – and by this same score, 8-6. Both are headed to the postseason again, with another rematch possible.

More shoutouts Constantine 40, Kalamazoo United 15 The Falcons (6-2) knocked United out of a tie for first place in the SAC Valley but now will be the Titans’ biggest fans – United (4-4) plays first-place Schoolcraft this week, and with a win would create a three-team shared title. Mattawan 35, Portage Central 7 The Wildcats (4-4) kept their hopes for a third-straight playoff berth alive while putting Portage Central (4-4) also in additional qualifier territory as it seeks to extend a seven-year postseason streak.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 37, Gladstone 14 The Redmen (4-4) edged closer to earning an additional qualifier spot in the playoff field, but that obviously was secondary this weekend as they also clinched a share of the Great Northern Conference title for the second-straight year. Marquette will play Kingsford this week for the outright league title, with the hope as well that another win will get them into the postseason for the first time since 2014. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Iron Mountain 51, L’Anse 6 The Mountaineers (8-0) locked up a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper championship, and can both clinch it outright and finish their first perfect regular season since 2011 with a win Friday against winless Gogebic.

Remember this one Menominee 47, Kingsford 8 After missing the playoffs last season for the first time since 1995, Menominee (5-3) kept its hopes alive of returning – while sending Kingsford (4-4) into an additional qualifier situation after the Flivvers also missed last season for the first time since 2014. Next up for the Maroons: undefeated Hopkins.

More shoutouts Ishpeming 54, Munising 6 The Hematites (6-2) clinched a share of the West-PAC Iron title and moved to 12-0 in the league in their two seasons as a member. Lake Linden-Hubbell 42, Bark River-Harris 0 The Lakes (5-3) moved one win closer to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and earned some key bonus points as Bark River-Harris (5-3) also is working for a postseason berth.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 53, Muskegon Mona Shores 0 The score says it all as the Big Reds (8-0) dominated the reigning Division 2 runner-up – and be sure potential playoff opponents are listening. Muskegon clinched a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black for the fourth straight season and has outscored its first five league opponents by a combined 278-10 with four shutouts. Mona Shores (6-2) averaged 37 points per game entering the night. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Muskegon Oakridge 27, Ravenna 20 (OT) The Eagles (8-0) locked up their first West Michigan Conference title since 2016 by scoring the game’s final 20 points. Ravenna (6-2) also entered the night unbeaten in league play and has guaranteed its first playoff berth since 2016.

Remember this one Grandville 30, Rockford 3 The Bulldogs (7-1) were rewarded for persevering after falling to Hudsonville by 23 in Week 6, as Rockford (7-1) went on to defeat Hudsonville the next week and now Grandville and Rockford sit tied for first in the O-K Red with a league game to play for both.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids Christian 38, East Grand Rapids 31 This matchup has determined at least a share of the O-K Gold championship now four straight seasons, as the Eagles (6-2) clinched a share and sent EGR (5-3) into a must-win playoff scenario. Byron Center 33, Hudsonville Unity Christian 20 The Bulldogs (8-0) clinched a share of the O-K Green title for the first time since 2016 and made things tougher for the reigning Division 5 champion Crusaders (5-3), who must face Zeeland East this week with a return to the postseason on the line.

8-Player

HEADLINER Crystal Falls Forest Park 22, Morrice 14 This matchup came together as a result of Forest Park and Morrice’s original opponents being unable to play – and ended up becoming one of the most notable 8-player games this fall. The Orioles (7-1) had won 20 straight (including 13 during last season’s perfect run to the Division 1 title) and given up only 18 points over their first seven games. The Trojans (6-2) got up 16-0 and scored the final go-ahead points with 3:13 to play. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Suttons Bay 29, Onekama 18 The first meeting between these two, a 20-14 Suttons Bay win in Week 4, was a late add and nonleague. This one was for the Midwest Central Michigan Conference West title, and Suttons Bay (8-0) held on again to win the championship outright by handing Onekama (5-3) its only league defeat. 

Remember this one Deckerville 42, Kingston 34 The Eagles (8-0) locked up a share of a fourth straight North Central Thumb League Blue championship, but got their first single-digit game of the season from the rival Cardinals (6-2) 

More shoutouts Newberry 20, Brimley 18 The Indians (5-3) would have fallen just outside the playoff field if the regular season had ended a week ago, but defeating Brimley (5-3) could end up the eventual difference. Gaylord St. Mary 65, Mio 28 The Snowbirds (3-5) had to forfeit four wins last week, but a slim chance of making the playoffs remained – and they took a big step toward making it a reality getting past Mio (7-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Clinton Township Chippewa Valley's Myles Harris (4) outraces a Romeo defender for a kickoff return touchdown Friday. (Photo by Chris Mudd Photography.)