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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review

September 23, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Week 4 of Michigan’s high school football season was filled with great stories, and we tried to make mention of as many as we could in this week’s “Drive for Detroit” review.

A legendary coach returns with a big win. A neighbor beats its rival for the first time in a number of years – or decades. A league title contender gives up a sure win and takes a chance to help another celebrate those who have served our country.

And as often written in these opening paragraphs each week, those were just the start.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 21, Freeland 7 The Eagles (4-0) now share the lead in the Tri-Valley Conference East with only Saginaw Swan Valley after sending Freeland (3-1) a game back. Frankenmuth avenged last season’s 15-8 loss to the Falcons with 21 unanswered second-half points, but can’t celebrate for long with Swan Valley up this week. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Watch list Richmond 35, Croswell-Lexington 18 The Blue Water Area Conference also has just two teams at the top now – Richmond and Almont – after the Blue Devils (4-0) sent Croswell-Lexington (2-2) into a tie for third.

Remember this one Millington 15, Hemlock 6 The Cardinals (1-3) took the first step needed to win out and guarantee extending their 15-year playoff streak by handing Hemlock (2-2) its second straight defeat.

More shoutouts Davison 48, Flint Powers Catholic 0 The Cardinals (4-0) posted their second straight shutout to hand Powers (3-1) its first defeat and stay atop the Saginaw Valley League Blue. Harbor Beach 47, Brown City 0 The Pirates (4-0) have given up just 17 points over four games but next will take on Ubly (40.5 ppg) for first place in the Greater Thumb Conference East.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Plymouth 14, Brighton 7 The Wildcats are 4-0 for the first time since 2011 and alone atop the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after edging the reigning champion Bulldogs. Brighton (3-1) is one of four teams in the league sharing second with one defeat – and Plymouth handed that loss to three of them. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.

Watch list Oak Park 26, Birmingham Groves 14 Oak Park (3-1) has been one of Groves’ few regular-season stoppers the last few seasons and made it three in a row over the Falcons (3-1) to remain with Birmingham Seaholm the only teams undefeated in Oakland Activities Association White play.

Remember this one Detroit Martin Luther King 47, Detroit Cass Tech 7 Much credit goes to both Detroit Public School League powers for opening against some of the Midwest’s best – even though both started 0-2. King (2-2) gave itself a little bit of breathing room with a second straight win after opening with defeats to Detroit Catholic Central and Muskegon. Cass Tech (1-3) finds itself in a rare position; the Technicians fell to out-of-state powers Chicago Phillips and Lakewood St. Edward (Ohio), the first two weeks and likely will have to win out – including against King during the Detroit Public School League playoffs – to extend an 11-year playoff streak.

More shoutouts Orchard Lake St. Mary's 38, Walled Lake Western 35 The Eaglets, after going a combined 5-12 over the last two seasons, are 4-0 after handing Western its first loss. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 16, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 14 The Warriors (4-0) downed the reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (2-2) for the first time since 2016.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER East Lansing 35, Portage Northern 28 (OT) The Trojans (3-1) earned a major win for Lansing-area football as a whole, taking down arguably the top team from the southwest so far this fall in Northern (3-1). The Huskies are undefeated in Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West play along with St. Joseph, but gave up a season high in points to East Lansing. The Trojans couldn’t have wished for better heading into their next matchup with league rival DeWitt, a big winner over Holt this weekend. Click for more from East Lansing Info and see below for highlights from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list New Lothrop 42, Montrose 21 The reigning Division 7 champion Hornets (4-0) haven’t slowed down a step from last season, with Montrose (3-1) the second of three second-place teams in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference to fall to New Lothrop over the last two weeks.

Remember this one St. Johns 33, Williamston 21 The Redwings (3-1) got off to a deflating start with a Week 1 shutout against East Lansing, but that loss looks better with the Trojans’ success and also forgettable after wins like this one over the Hornets (2-2).

More shoutouts Beal City 35, Evart 7 The Aggies (4-0) stand alone in the Highland Conference after handing Evart (3-1) its first defeat, which continued a three-week string of dealing contenders their first league loss. Fowler 46, Laingsburg 24 By handing Laingsburg (3-1) its only loss, the Eagles (4-0) got past the main obstacle on the way to what could be a battle of unbeatens against rival Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 8.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsley 26, Traverse City St. Francis 7 The Stags (4-0) broke a six-game losing streak against the Gladiators that had seen them struggle to even score against their rivals. But this time, St. Francis (2-2) was held to just seven points for the second time this season – and also just the second time in a regular-season game since the start of 2014. Kingsley sits atop the Northern Michigan Football League Legends standings with Week 9 opponent Boyne City. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Alpena 41, Cadillac 38 Are the Wildcats (2-2) contenders in the Big North Conference? They join Travers City Central as the only teams without a league loss as they play for their first overall winning season since 2004, and this was a nice win with Cadillac (2-2) also on the rise.

Remember this one Traverse City Central 32, Traverse City West 0 The “Patriot Game” always is memorable, but will be this time especially for Central (3-1) as it avenged last season’s 21-14 defeat with a margin unrivaled in the series since West’s 31-point win in 2002.

More shoutouts Maple City Glen Lake 53, Frankfort 7 The Lakers (4-0) continued to shine with a season high in points against the Panthers (2-2). Johannesburg-Lewiston 40, St. Ignace 0 The Cardinals put up a third straight big win to start a string of five games against teams that are .500 or better so far.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Chelsea 28, Ypsilanti Lincoln 18 The Bulldogs (4-0) made the Division 4 championship game last season, even more impressive considering they didn’t win their league. But they took a major step toward earning that local crown this fall by ending a two-year losing streak to the rival Railsplitters (2-2) – and next up is reigning Southeastern Conference White champion Jackson. Click for more from the Chelsea Sun Times News.

Watch list Blissfield 28, Brooklyn Columbia Central 14 Seven of eight teams in the Lenawee County Athletic Association are 2-2 or better, and Blissfield (3-1) finds itself tied for first place after handing reigning co-champ Columbia Central (3-1) a loss for the second straight season.

Remember this one Clinton 34, Sand Creek 28 A late rally kept Clinton (4-0) tied for first in the Tri-County Conference and could be the difference down the road as Sand Creek (3-1) hopes for help to get back in the title mix.  

More shoutouts Dexter 57, Jackson 21 The Dreadnaughts (3-1) are halfway to earning a second playoff berth in two seasons – and ever – after avenging last season’s 10-point loss to the Vikings (3-1). Jonesville 52, Union City 0 This win over 2018 playoff qualifier Union City moved Jonesville to 3-1, giving the Comets their most wins in a season since 2016 – and tying their most wins since 2014.  

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER St. Joseph 22, Stevensville Lakeshore 14 The coach Andrew Pratley era is only four games old, but the Bears (4-0) are only one win shy of tying last year’s success and in position to decide their fate in the SMAC West after this victory over Lakeshore (2-2). St. Joseph had lost eight straight to the Lancers, going back to 2013. The final month could be even more telling with league foes Portage Central and Northern sandwiching undefeated Battle Creek Lakeview and perennial power DeWitt. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list White Pigeon 14, Centreville 8 The Chiefs (4-0) won this matchup of 2018 playoff qualifiers to hold on to a share of first in the Southwest 10 Conference, with Centreville (2-2) now having lost to both co-leaders over the last two weeks.

Remember this one Lawton 29, Delton Kellogg 12 These two could end up champions in the Southwestern Athletic Conference divisions. Delton (3-1) should be pursuing the Valley title with Schoolcraft and Constantine. Lawton (4-0) and Gobles look to be early favorites in the SAC Lakeshore.

More shoutouts Edwardsburg 54, Vicksburg 7 The Eddies (4-0) are back on top in the Wolverine Conference sharing first with only Paw Paw after handing Vicksburg (3-1) its first loss. Portage Central 21, Battle Creek Central 19 Both made the playoffs a year ago, and the Mustangs (2-2) are just a bit more comfortable as they try to advance again while the Bearcats (1-3) now are forced to win out to guarantee a return.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Ishpeming Westwood 38, Ishpeming 0 The Patriots (2-2) find themselves needing a number of things to fall their way to get back into their league’s title mix, but a great consolation prize at the end of the season will be this win over the rival Hematites (3-1). It broke a losing streak (on the field, not counting a forfeit victory in 2017) against Ishpeming that began in 1999 and included four playoff defeats. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Watch list Calumet 14, West Iron County 0 The Copper Kings (4-0) have given up only 21 points over four games, handing West Iron (3-1) a shutout for its first defeat.

Remember this one Marquette 17, Escanaba 14 The Redmen (2-2) started this season with losses to Traverse City powers St. Francis and Central. But those games no doubt prepared them well to open Great Northern Conference play with a big win against their rival and the other reigning league co-champ Eskymos (3-1).

More shoutouts Kingsford 20, Gladstone 7 The Flivvers (2-2) enjoyed a jumpstart in their first game this fall against a Michigan opponent, handing Gladstone (2-2) a second straight defeat. Sault Ste. Marie 8, Petoskey 7 (OT) The Blue Devils (3-1) scored their only points in overtime to improve on their best start on the field since 2007 (not including 2015 when a Week 4 win came by forfeit).

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 34, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 The Rams (4-0) welcomed back the state’s sixth winningest coach Ralph Munger after preseason heart surgery kept him off the sideline to start the fall, and they no doubt rode some added inspiration in avenging losses to Mona Shores (3-1) from the last two seasons.  Jaiden Friesen scored five touchdowns, and Rockford’s defense held the reigning Division 2 runner-up Sailors to their second-fewest points over the last three seasons. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Watch list Byron Center 33, Holland Christian 6 The much-improved Bulldogs (4-0) have handed losses to three .500 teams including Holland Christian (2-2) to get to the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green powers, starting with Zeeland West this week.

Remember this one Muskegon Catholic Central 34, Ludington 21 This one jumped off the page, mostly because Ludington (3-1) had beaten reigning Lakes 8 Conference champ Manistee the week before. With Orchard View also surging, this league could be wide open.

More shoutouts Zeeland West 40, Lowell 26 The Dux (4-0) actually saw their scoring average fall to 45 ppg, and with wins as well over East Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Christian and Holland appear ready for league competition. Muskegon Orchard View 42, Belding 35 Every week the story gets better for the Cardinals (4-0), who have guaranteed their best finish since 2014 and with another win will tie their best since 2008.

8-Player

HEADLINER Suttons Bay 20, Onekama 14 This was one of the week’s best stories, and it had nothing to do with how the teams played. Although these two are the likely Midwest Central Michigan Conference West favorites and will meet again possibly to decide the champion Week 8, they agreed to play a nonleague game this past week as well. Although both were eligible to receive forfeit wins against other opponents no longer playing this fall, Onekama (3-1) had made big plans for its “Warrior Game” military appreciation night and needed an on-field opponent to make it go. In stepped Suttons Bay, which moved to 4-0 with its best win this season. Click for more from the Manistee News-Advocate.

Watch list Climax-Scotts 16, Camden-Frontier 12 It’s been impossible to not make mention of Climax-Scotts (4-0) almost every week so far with how it’s marched through some of the traditional best from its corner of the Lower Peninsula. Camden-Frontier (3-1) entered undefeated, and unbeaten Colon is up next.

Remember this one Litchfield 36, Waldron 22 The Terriers (3-1) now have as many wins as the last seven seasons combined, and could be set up to make a run at the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

More shoutouts Rapid River 66, Cedarville 58 (OT) The Rockets (1-3) haven’t scored like usual this season, but this overtime back-and-forth was a quick reminder of their past firepower – and a good time for it with Cedarville (2-2) always a force and league play starting. Hillman 52, Au Gres-Sims 20 The Tigers (4-0) stormed back after taking a forfeit win in Week 3, breaking a streak of three regular-season losses to the Wolverines (1-3).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Ishpeming Westwood quarterback Taylor Dellangelo celebrates a touchdown against Ishpeming. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)