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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review

September 16, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

"We're here," and "We're better than last year." 

If Michigan high school football teams collectively had a few messages to pass on during Week 3, those came through the loudest. 

Whether it was Portage Northern, Oak Park, Holland Christian or others, a number of contenders announced with their play that they will be factors deep into the fall. 

And more teams than should be listed in one sentence continued to equal or better their successes of a year ago – and we continue to make mention of many of those in this week's review below.  

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Flint Hamady 25, Flint Beecher 6 The Genesee Area Conference is down to just four teams, and this matchup may have decided the eventual champion. Hamady (3-0) ran its regular-season winning streak to 16 with a third-straight win over the Bucs (1-2), and its remaining two league opponents have started a combined 0-6. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see highlights below from WJRT.

Watch list Flint Powers Catholic 28, Kalamazoo Central 22 The Chargers are 3-0 for the first time since 2012, and this one likely will be quite memorable as Kalamazoo Central (1-2) is a league title contender that was coming off a big win over Portage Central after suffering its other loss by just a point.

Remember this one Flint Kearsley 29, Flushing 21 With their first win over Flushing (0-3) since 2006, the Hornets (3-0) tied their win total from last season and their most in a season since going 4-5 in 2012. The Raiders are better than their record, with close losses also to Detroit Country Day and Temperance Bedford.

More shoutouts Carrollton 29, Millington 27 The Cavaliers (1-2) also equaled their win total from all of last season, dealing a third loss to a Cardinals team that suddenly must win out to guarantee extending their 15-season playoff streak. Midland Bullock Creek 33, Hemlock 31 The Lancers (2-1) went 2-7 the last two seasons and haven’t won more than two since going 3-6 in 2014, but they are on pace to equal or surpass that success after handing Hemlock (2-1) its first defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Oak Park 64, Clarkston 41 The Knights (2-1) needed just about all of their 64 points to extend their winning streak against Clarkston to three, as the Wolves (1-2) led 41-40 with just under six minutes to play. A six-point Week 1 loss to West Bloomfield gave an indication Oak Park would be strong again this fall, but this comeback backs that up as the Knights now prepare for a massive Oakland Activities Association White matchup this week against Birmingham Groves. Click for more from the Oakland Press and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Plymouth 15, Canton 13 The Wildcats are 3-0 for the first time since 2014, and after defeating the Chiefs (1-2) should carry some serious momentum into this week’s league matchup with reigning Kensington Lakes Activities Association West champion Brighton.

Remember this one Dearborn Heights Robichaud 32, Redford Thurston 31 After four straight losses to end last season, Robichaud (3-0) has bounced back with this win over the annually-strong Eagles (2-1) its best so far.

More shoutouts West Bloomfield 17, Southfield Arts & Technology 8 The Lakers (2-1) rebounded quickly from a Week 2 loss to Groves with a win over another program in Southfield (1-2) that’s rumbled through one of the state’s toughest early schedules. Lake Orion 36, Rochester Adams 31 The Dragons (3-0) added to one of the most impressive starts, edging Adams (2-1) to stay a step ahead in an OAA Red that could be the state’s strongest league this fall.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Clare 42, Harrison 40 The Pioneers scored to go-ahead points with 40 seconds left to keep in step in a league that again has multiple contenders after three shared the title a year ago. Clare is one of three teams in the Jack Pine Conference off to a 3-0 start, and this was a good win to get out of the way especially with co-leaders Beaverton and Sanford Meridian still needing to face the Hornets (2-1) later on. Click to see more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.   

Watch list Beal City 13, Lake City 0 The Aggies (3-0) averaged nearly 10 wins per season from 2010-16, but won a combined six games over the last two seasons. They’ve opened this fall with a combined scoring margin of 90-8 after earning their second shutout by downing 2018 Division 7 semifinalist Lake City (1-2).

Remember this one Fowlerville 20, Williamston 14 The Hornets (2-1) shared last season’s Capital Area Activities Conference Red title, but the Gladiators (3-0) are looking like a team to chase in the league as they chase a first winning season since 2016.

More shoutouts Lansing Everett 21, Lansing Waverly 14 The Vikings (2-1) haven’t won more than two games since 2015 but have another chance to take a big step after also opening 2-1 last season and ending 2-7. Perry 36, Carson City-Crystal 30 There’s always an eye on the Ramblers (2-1) as they play to make the playoffs for the first time, and this fall they are a three-point Week 1 loss from a 3-0 start.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Ludington 45, Manistee 14 The Orioles (3-0) have made the playoffs two of the last three seasons, but this has been their most impressive start in more than a decade. Ludington has outscored its first three opponents by a combined 135-38 and opened Lakes 8 Conference play by handing reigning champion Manistee (2-1) its first regular-season defeat since 2017. See highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Evart 7, Manton 6 The Wildcats are 3-0 for the first time since 2013 and after winning two games all of 2018, claiming these first three victories by a combined 22 points.

Remember this one Houghton Lake 8, McBain 6 Moving from the Jack Pine Conference to Highland Conference this fall, Houghton Lake (1-2) is another strong bounce-back candidate after going 2-7 in 2018. The first two losses this fall were to still-unbeaten Oscoda and Beal City, and McBain (1-2) won eight games last season.  

More shoutouts Traverse City West 26, Holt 21 The Titans (2-1) opened with a tough nonleague slate but picked up their second straight win with a last-minute score against the Rams (2-1). Kingsley 43, Grayling 16 The Stags (3-0) will bring a 38-ppg average into this week’s matchup with nemesis Traverse City St. Francis.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Milan 28, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 21 The Big Reds (3-0) couldn’t have put themselves in better position to start the Huron League season as they aim for their first league title since sharing in 2016. Two weeks ago they nearly tripled up reigning champion Grosse Ile, and Friday put up a late score to get past rival St. Mary (2-1) and stay in the league lead with Riverview. Click for more from the Monroe Evening News.

Watch list Hillsdale 46, Erie Mason 36 The Hornets (3-0) needed to score big to stay ahead of an Erie Mason team that fell to 2-1 but has been among the highest-scoring in the state early this fall, and this could end up as one of the key victories as Hillsdale looks to repeat after sharing the Lenawee County Athletic Association title in 2018.

Remember this one Brooklyn Columbia Central 26, Ida 8 The Golden Eagles (3-0) also were LCAA co-champs last season, and Ida (1-2) has been a contender the last six seasons and champion three of those years.

More shoutouts Jackson Lumen Christi 38, Coldwater 21 The Titans (3-0) were able slow a Coldwater offense that had been on a tear during a 2-0 start. Britton Deerfield 34, Petersburg Summerfield 28 The Patriots (2-1) beat Summerfield (1-2) for the first time since 2013 and now have as many wins this season as the last three combined.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Northern 56, Portage Central 26 This meant a lot Friday night and could the rest of this season. The Huskies (3-0) had lost five straight to Central (1-2) and six straight during the regular season, including by just a point a year ago. With a win over Stevensville Lakeshore as well in Week 2, Northern finds itself in nice position in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West, tied for first with St. Joseph and with wins over two of the other annual contenders. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Watch list Battle Creek Lakeview 27, Battle Creek Central 13 The Spartans started 0-3 a year ago, losing to rival Central by 15. This time they’re 3-0 with a 14-point win over the Bearcats (1-2) that gave Lakeview more wins this fall than all of 2018.

Remember this one Cassopolis 15, Centreville 0 The reigning Southwest 10 Conference champion Rangers (3-0) have yet to give up a point this season, even more impressive considering Centreville (2-1) had scored more than 50 in each of its first two games.

More shoutouts Niles Brandywine 45, Saugatuck 10 The Bobcats are independent this season, but the going has been good so far with their first 3-0 start since 2014, a 151-18 combined scoring margin and this avenging of last year’s 48-12 loss to Saugatuck (1-2). Schoolcraft 54, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 24 The Bobcats (1-2) may be off to their toughest start since 2011, but Schoolcraft (3-0) also has put up a combined 170 points over three games in picking up where they left off last fall.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Calumet 14, Ishpeming Westwood 8 This was the key matchup as Calumet won the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title a year ago, and it surely will have an impact on this season’s race as well. The Copper Kings (3-0) kept Westwood (1-2) off the board until the final minute to keep pace with Iron Mountain atop the league and heading into two weeks of nonleague play before Calumet meets the Mountaineers in Week 6. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Watch list Menominee 42, Gladstone 6 The Maroons (2-1) fell back last season to 2-7, their first sub-.500 finish since 1995, and in addition to equaling last season’s success this win also was a good sign because the Braves (2-1) had opened with two wins.

Remember this one St. Ignace 26, Charlevoix 21 Although this was the Saints’ second win in two years over the Rayders (2-1), Charlevoix also was off to its best start this fall since its last playoff run in 2016 – and St. Ignace also is looking to get back to the playoffs for the first time since that season.

More shoutouts Negaunee 28, Hancock 19 After opening with a pair of losses to Iron Mountain and Calumet, the Miners (1-2) got on the board by handing Hancock (2-1) its first loss. Marquette 31, Sault Ste. Marie 0 The Redmen (1-2) did the same, coming off two losses to strong opponents by handing the Blue Devils (2-1) their first defeat.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Holland Christian 27, Hudsonville Unity Christian 13 For the first time in three years, these teams didn’t combine to score 80 points. And for the first time since 2012, Holland Christian came out on top. The Maroons (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss by holding on against the reigning Division 5 champion Crusaders (2-1), earning an early edge in what’s stacking up as an even more loaded than usual Ottawa-Kent Conference Green. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel and see highlights below from FOX 17.

Watch list Muskegon 28, East Grand Rapids 23 We already knew Muskegon (3-0) was arguably the state’s best team after its wins over Warren De La Salle Collegiate and Detroit Martin Luther King. But this close loss spoke volumes for East Grand Rapids (1-2) despite its deceptive W-L record.

Remember this one Grandville 32, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 29 The Bulldogs (3-0) head into the O-K Red schedule looking good to best last season’s 4-5 finish and with this win coming over one of the likely contenders in the O-K White.

More shoutouts Byron Center 42, Hamilton 27 These are two more reasons the O-K Green looks so tough; Byron Center (3-0) has equaled last season’s win total, and Hamilton (2-1) needs only one more victory to do the same. Grant 8, Reed City 6 The Tigers (2-1) scored just one more point this season than in big losses to Reed City in 2016, 2017 and 2018. But eight points with tough defense is all they needed for their first win over the Coyotes (1-2) in the six seasons they’ve been together as part of the Central State Activities Association Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Powers North Central 20, Pickford 14 As noted in last week’s preview, these two could both find themselves playing for 8-player championships at the Superior Dome, in separate divisions. So this was everything expected of a meeting between arguably the two best 8-player teams in the Upper Peninsula, with the Jets (3-0) handing Pickford its first regular-season loss since Week 3 of 2016 and Pickford holding North Central to its fewest points since a 2017 playoff defeat. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Watch list Pellston 32, Au Gres-Sims 30 Coming back from an 18-point halftime deficit, Pellston moved to 3-0 and reversed last season’s 0-3 start against the same opponents. After last season’s big jump to 4-5, the Hornets find themselves two wins from a first winning record since 1995, while Au Gres-Sims (1-2) will try to bounce back quickly after suffering its first two regular-season defeats since 2016.

Remember this one Climax-Scotts 34, Bellevue 22 The Southern Central Athletic Association A is loaded – three of five teams are 3-0 including Climax-Scotts – and the Panthers face the next two (Camden-Frontier, then Colon) over the next two weeks after downing last season’s league runner-up, Bellevue (1-2).

More shoutouts Bay City All Saints 20, International Academy of Flint 12 The Cougars were outscored 98-0 over their first two games but turned things upside-down defeating a Flames team that opened by beating its first two opponents by a combined 120-0. Deckerville 40, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 6 The Eagles (3-0) avenged last season’s 10-point loss in a big way, locking down an Irish offense that had put up 78 points the week before.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: West Bloomfield's JaQuan Wiggins follows his blocks during Friday's win over Southfield Arts & Technology. (Photo courtesy of C&G Newspapers.)