Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 1 Preview

August 28, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

By the end of this opening weekend of Michigan high school football, some fans will say of their successful teams "it's just like last year," while others will boast "this looks nothing like last year, and it's going to be special." 

That's perhaps the greatness of high school football above all other levels more than at any other, the beginning of the season provides such a fresh slate that last year's winless team could become this year's league champion. 

Total, 608 teams will start down that road, with the great majority of the weekend's 306 varsity openers to be played Thursday, followed by games Friday and Saturday as well. 

As we'll do every week, below we've broken out some of the games of particular interest from every corner of the state. (Records shown below are from 2018.) Check out your local game, but also take advantage of the opportunity to watch any of 25 games being broadcast this weekend on MHSAA.tv, including all six from the Xenith Prep Football Kickoff Classic at Wayne State University and both from the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic at Flint's Atwood Stadium. Click for the full schedule

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid, which works to make college more accessible, affordable and attainable for Michigan students.

Bay & Thumb

Fenton (7-3) at Davison (7-3), Thursday 

These have been two of the Flint area's powers during the 2000s, Davison riding a four-season playoff streak after bouncing back from a brief rough patch and Fenton coming off its 11th consecutive postseason appearance. They split a pair of openers in 2014 and 2015 before taking three years off, and they're both hoping to ride a strong start in this nonleague game into league title contention. Both finished a win shy of claiming a conference title a year ago.

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Traverse City West (7-3) at Midland (9-4), Montrose (10-3) at Cass City (8-3), Detroit Country Day (7-3) at Flushing (7-3), Marshall (3-6) at Freeland (7-4).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Martin Luther King (12-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (7-4) at Wayne State University, Saturday

This year's Xenith Classic is loaded with great matchups, with this one holding a slight edge at the top of the list. Last we saw King, the Crusaders were stunning at least some of the state with a Division 3 championship game win over Muskegon. DCC is a Ford Field regular as well and looking to climb back to that level after falling in its Division 1 District Final a year ago. This will be these teams' first matchup since a District Final in 2001.

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Saline (11-2) vs. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (14-0) at Wayne State FRIDAY Oak Park (9-2) at West Bloomfield (9-3), Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-2) at River Rouge (8-2), Muskegon (13-1) vs. Warren De La Salle Collegiate (12-2) at Wayne State.

Mid-Michigan

Reading (14-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (11-1) at Olivet College, Thursday

Reading didn't just go undefeated on the way to the Division 8 title last year. The Rangers scored 678 points, 10th most in MHSAA 11-player history. Pewamo-Westphalia will provide one of Reading's most formidable challenges of the last few seasons, however. The Pirates missed Ford Field last fall for the first time since 2014, falling to eventual Division 7 champion New Lothrop in a Regional Final.

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Clare (9-2) at Alma (9-2), Hudson (4-5) at Ithaca (8-2), Muskegon Oakridge (9-2) at Belding (7-3), Mason (5-4) at Okemos (7-4).

Northern Lower Peninsula

New Lothrop (13-1) at Lake City (12-1), Thursday

This carries as much intrigue as just about any opener in the state, large schools or small. As noted above, the Hornets are the reigning Division 7 champions, finishing 13-1 last fall and reaching the Final with a 51-22 Semifinal win over Lake City. That was the Trojans' only loss of the season, repeating 2017 when its only defeat came in a Semifinal against eventual Division 7 champion P-W. 

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY DeWitt (12-1) at Traverse City Central (7-3), McBain (8-3) at Kingsley (10-2), Millington (7-4) at Maple City Glen Lake (5-5), FRIDAY Manton (4-5) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-2).

Southeast & Border

Chelsea (10-4) at Dexter (6-4), Friday

Dexter football was one of the state's best stories of the 2019-20 school year, posting its first winning record since 2010 and earning the first playoff berth in program history. That gives this annual Southeastern Conference White matchup more buzz than ever before. Chelsea did win last season's meeting 34-20 on the way to finishing 10-4 and Division 4 runner-up. 

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Madison Heights Madison (13-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-3), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (10-1) at Blissfield (7-5), Napoleon (5-5) at Brooklyn Columbia Central (9-2), Carleton Airport (4-5) at Ida (8-3).

Southwest Corridor

Jackson Lumen Christi (13-0) at Kalamazoo United (11-1), Friday

Storylines are everywhere. Lumen Christi has won three straight Division 6 championships and at 23 games carries the state's longest active winning streak. United, made up of students from Hackett Catholic Prep and Kalamazoo Christian, tied the best record for either school together or apart by finishing 11-1 a year ago. However, United graduated one of the state's most prolific quarterbacks ever in Eric Wenzel, now at Western Michigan University, and coach Jesse Brown is now the Lumen Christi athletic director. 

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY St. Joseph (5-5) at Battle Creek Central (7-4), Holland West Ottawa (6-4) at Stevensville Lakeshore (5-5), Grand Rapids West Catholic (5-5) at Berrien Springs (7-3), Decatur (6-5) at Mendon (7-5).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (5-4) at Iron Mountain (8-3), Thursday

After a rare sub-.500 season in 2017, Negaunee got back to 5-4 a year ago but missed making the playoffs by a win. The Miners' closest defeat came on opening night, 12-9 to Iron Mountain, which went on to post one of the state's best turnarounds of 2018 at 8-3 after going 1-8 the season before. These two should be in the mix for the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper title once again.

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Gladstone (4-5) at St. Ignace (5-4), Bark River-Harris (2-7) at Gwinn (6-4) FRIDAY West Iron County (8-3) at Munising (4-5), Marinette (Wis.) (4-5) at Menominee (2-7).

West Michigan

Reed City (11-1) at Montague (11-3), Friday 

This will be the third straight opening-night meeting between these two playoff regulars, and the first two were decided by at least three touchdowns. But last year's came with a twist; Reed City won 34-13, but Montague went on to finish 11-3 and Division 6 runner-up. The Coyotes, meanwhile, suffered their only loss in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons and sixth time in eight, falling in a Division 5 Regional Final. 

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Rockford (7-5) at Grand Rapids Christian (8-3), Saginaw Swan Valley (12-1) at Cedar Springs (10-2), Zeeland West (8-3) at East Grand Rapids (6-4), Hudsonville Unity Christian (12-2) at Allendale (5-5).

8-Player

Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (10-1) at Climax-Scotts (4-5 in 11-player), Friday

Another handful of teams switched to 8-player from 11 this fall, and Climax-Scotts might be the most anticipated mover over the last few seasons. Last fall was the first since 2002 that the Panthers didn't win at least eight games. They'll be greeted by Tri-unity, which has established itself as an 8-player power and posted double-digit wins last season for the second time in three years. 

Keep an eye on these: THURSDAY Morrice (13-0) at Kingston (8-2), Bellevue (9-2) at Martin (6-4 in 11-player), Powers North Central (8-2) at Cedarville (7-5) at DeTour FRIDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (6-5) at Pickford (12-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Friday (and this week Thursday) night lights return to football fields all over the state this weekend. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)