Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Big Stop Locks Up Chippewa Valley Title

November 24, 2018

By Tom Kendra
Special for Second Half

DETROIT – Ironically, it was Clinton Township Chippewa Valley’s defense which stole the show Saturday at Ford Field.

With just 23 seconds to play in the Division 1 Final, Clarkston scored to pull within one point of the Big Reds. Wolves coach Kurt Richardson, himself known statewide for defensive genius over 32 seasons leading the program, rolled the dice and went for a go-ahead 2-point conversion.

After a timeout, fullback Jake Billette took a direct snap and went left, then handed off to receiver Josh Luther running right, who was looking to either run or pass for the conversion.

But Chippewa Valley senior defensive lineman Michael Garwood read the play perfectly, stayed home on the reverse and then bull-rushed Luther for a four-yard loss, preserving the Big Reds’ 31-30 victory and first MHSAA football championship since winning Division 2 in 2001.

“A lot of people talk about our offense, but that was a huge defensive play right there, obviously,” said 10th-year Chippewa Valley coach Scott Merchant, whose team finished 14-0 and was known for its offense. “Michael Garwood, our defensive end, stayed home on the backside and really blew up that play.”

Garwood’s tackle for loss ended a valiant comeback for Clarkston, which was looking for its second consecutive Division 1 title and fourth in six years.

The Big Reds stunned the Wolves with two TDs in the first 6 minutes to take a quick 14-0 lead, and still led by that same margin, 24-10, at halftime.

The second half was a different story as Clarkston scored three touchdowns to just one for Chippewa Valley, but the failed two-point conversion attempt proved to be the difference.

 “We’ve been aggressive forever here, and that’s the way we play football,” said Richardson, a 1971 Clarkston graduate who has turned his alma mater into a state powerhouse, explaining his end-of-game gamble. “We called a timeout, and we were all in on it. They defended it well, so what can I say? It was just a great high school football game.”

The Big Reds, champions of the Macomb Area Conference Red, were able to move the ball consistently against the vaunted Clarkston defense because of crafty senior quarterback Tommy Schuster and a bevy of dangerous weapons including Martice Bunting, Andrew Chenault and David Ellis.

Schuster, a 6-0, 195-pound senior, was a perfect 13-for-13 through the air for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He set the MHSAA Finals record for passing accuracy for players who have attempted at least 12 passes in one championship game, breaking the record of .846 set in 2011.

Schuster, who had a 36-yard scoring strike to senior Bunting in the first quarter and then a 25-yard scoring pass to Bunting late in the third which proved to be the game-winner, said all of the pregame talk about Clarkston’s defense motivated him and his offensive teammates.

“We definitely took it as a challenge,” said Schuster, a three-year starter who threw for 1,858 yards with 26 touchdown passes and only one interception this season. “Our gameplan was to come out strong and punch them in the mouth, get their attention, and then keep it up.”

Clarkston’s final drive began at its own 22-yard line with 2:28 remaining and the Wolves trailing, 31-24.

Senior quarterback Jake Jensen, outstanding himself with a game-high 121 rushing yards and 10-of-15 passing for 110 yards through the air, engineered a 10-play, 78-yard drive which culminated with a seven-yard touchdown pass to Matt Miller with 23 seconds left on the clock.

That set the stage for Richardson’s gamble on the conversion and the title-saving tackle by Garwood.

Clarkston actually finished with the edge in total yards, 347-320, including a 213-115 edge on the ground. The difference turned out to be Schuster’s perfect day through the air, as he averaged 16 yards per pass, and also one big special teams play.

After the Wolves closed to within 17-10 on a three-yard scoring run from senior Jacob Honstetter just 41 seconds before halftime, Chippewa Valley speedster David Ellis answered right back.

Ellis, who has committed to Indiana University, took the ensuing kickoff at his own 6-yard line and turned on the jets, sprinting 94 yards along the Clarkston sideline to up the lead to 24-10 at the break.

“I just wanted to make something happen,” explained Ellis, who has 4.4-second speed in the 40-yard dash. “I saw a hole to the left and just ran as fast as I could.

“Clarkston was one of the best defenses that we faced, but we just have too many players. You can stop one, but then there’s five or six others to worry about.”

Ellis added three receptions for 58 yards, and Bunting had three catches for 66 yards. Chenault was the leading rusher with 12 carries for 67 yards. Chippewa Valley’s defense was led by Ja’Von Kimpson with an interception, Myles Harris with eight tackles, Jonathan Zak with six and Garwood with five.

Billette had 11 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown for Clarkston. Luther had four receptions and Conor Donahue and Miller had three catches apiece. Max Nicklin, Aaron Berti, Brendan Barker, Zach Reid and Luther all made six tackles. 

The game was the polar opposite of last year’s Division 1 Final, where Clarkston beat West Bloomfield by the baseball-like score of 3-2. That five-point affair was the second-lowest scoring game in Finals history, and Clarkston tied the record for most punts in the Finals with eight.

Just 2:26 into Saturday’s game, the Big Reds eclipsed last year’s total points on a three-yard run by Chenault, capping a six-play, 76-yard drive.

Saturday also was vastly different from Clarkston’s previous four playoff games, where the Wolves allowed a total of 16 points.

Chippewa Valley scored its 17th point early in the second quarter on a 36-yard field goal by Niko Kepi.

By then, both coaches knew it was going to be a whole different type of ballgame.

“This is a huge day for all of us, our football program and our community,” said Merchant. “I am thankful to all of these players for taking me on this ride. This is a special, very humble group of kids that always give credit to other people.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Chippewa Valley’s Andre Chenault (5) takes down Clarkston’s Jake Honstetter during Saturday’s Division 1 Final at Ford Field. (Middle) The Big Reds deny the Wolves’ 2-point conversion attempt to secure a 31-30 victory.