Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

'Lights Out' D Keys DeLaSalle's D2 Repeat

By Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half

November 23, 2018

DETROIT – Not once had Muskegon Mona Shores been held under 33 points this season. Keeping opponents off-balance with their veer option attack, the Sailors averaged 45.6 over 13 games leading up to Saturday’s Division 2 Final, and 47.5 per game during the playoffs.

But Mona Shores hadn’t faced a defense like the one Warren DeLaSalle brought to Ford Field.

Since allowing 36 points to Muskegon in its opener, DeLaSalle’s defense has been as formidable as any in the state – and the Pilots demonstrated that once again on the big stage.

Led by senior linebackers Jacob Dobbs and Devon Campbell, DeLaSalle held Mona Shores to 217 yards in defeating the Sailors, 29-16.

Yes Bear Bryant, defense does indeed win championships (the iconic college football coach is considered to have been the first to make that statement). The Pilots (12-2) held their five playoff opponents to a combined 36 points on the way to not only repeating as Division 2 champions but winning their third title in five seasons.

“Our defense was lights out,” DeLaSalle coach Mike Giannone said. “They’ve been that way all year, and I want to compliment them on it.

“Offensively, we did what we had to do.”

The Pilots set the tone on the first series when Dobbs and safety Derek Roskopp stopped running back Sincere Dent for a four-yard loss on a 4th-and-1 from the Mona Shores 35. The Sailors also went for it on a 4th-and-1 on their next series and were stopped short. The latter stop led to DeLaSalle’s first touchdown, a Nolan Schultz one-yard sneak to give the Pilots a 7-0 lead.

Mona Shores (12-2) tied the game with 1:26 left in the half on a two-yard run by quarterback Casen Boersma. The Sailors had but one first down before their scoring drive, and they received a boost when Dent, a 5-foot-11, 217-pound senior, busted loose for a 24-yard run. Boersma then ran 17 yards to set up his score.

It was a ragged first half as each team gained three first downs, punted four times and combined for 183 yards.

Each team scored on each of its first two possessions to begin the second half, and Schultz’s second one-yard touchdown run gave the Pilots a 21-10 lead with 10:44 remaining.

Mona Shores answered with an eight-play, 63-yard drive that ended with Boersma’s 14-yard touchdown pass to Da’Varius Carter with 7:26 left.

The Pilots put the game away with their best drive, which took 5:29 off the clock and ended with Schultz’s third one-yard sneak for a touchdown. The 12-play drive went 65 yards, and DeLaSalle used 11 running plays, eight by running back Evan Vaillancourt. Vaillancourt gained 24 yards on the drive and had 52 for the game on 18 carries.

Roskopp ended Mona Shores’ last drive with an interception with 31 seconds left.

“Hats off to DeLaSalle,” Mona Shores coach Matt Koziak said. “Defensively, they are tough. I thought our defense did well matching up with their physicality. Then it became a possession game. They wanted to run the clock, and that’s what they did.”

Yes, it was a team effort by the Pilots – but two players stood out: Dobbs and Schultz.

Schultz, a senior, was third on the depth chart before the start of the season. Junior Anthony Stepnitz was the starting quarterback, but he suffered an injury in the fourth game against Birmingham Brother Rice, and Schultz took over the following week.

“(Assistant coach) Bob Schroeder called me up after Anthony went down and told me to try Schultz,” Giannone said. “He liked the fact he was a gamer. He was our starting safety, and I didn’t know if I wanted to do that. He started some (at quarterback) on the JV as a sophomore, and we decided to go with him.”

Giannone simplified the offense until Schultz gained confidence. Accounting for 300 yards in total offense against Detroit Catholic Central in a 24-6 victory at Ford Field in the Catholic League championship game did much to build upon that confidence. After a so-so first half against Mona Shores, Schultz was 6-of-7 passing for 132 yards and one touchdown during the second. He also rushed for 41 yards on five carries over the final 24 minutes.

“We’ve been to Ford Field before,” Schultz said. “It wasn’t a big deal for us.”

Dobbs led all players with 16 tackles and forced one fumble. At receiver he had three receptions for 65 yards and one touchdown, a 44-yarder that gave DeLaSalle a 14-7 lead.

“He has a great nose for the ball, and he has great instincts,” Giannone said. “To play with your friends, it means more. These guys have been playing a lot together. It’s more fun.”

Dobbs couldn’t decide which play was more fun, the stop on fourth down or the touchdown catch.

“Everybody did their job,” Dobbs said. “Our defense is amazing. It’s all you can asked for.

“We didn’t see any weaknesses on film (of Mona Shores). They have a big running back. They have a good quarterback, and they have two good receivers. We knew they wanted to run the midline and the veer. Our coaches prepared us for that.”

Campbell had 10 tackles to support Dobbs’ play, and Dent had 10 tackles from his linebacker spot.

Giannone completed his third season at DeLaSalle after spending 15 at Macomb Dakota, where he led the Cougars to two MHSAA Division 1 titles. Much of the credit for the play of his defense goes to Brandon Bush, a starter on the second Dakota championship team (2007), and he’s been Giannone’s defensive coordinator all three seasons at DeLaSalle.

“He was coaching the freshmen at Dakota,” Giannone said. “I saw in him somebody I could trust. It’s all continuity. At Dakota we had the same staff for 15 years. We try to pay it back.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Warren DeLaSalle’s Jacob Dobbs brings down a Mona Shores ball carrier Friday at Ford Field. (Middle) Pilots quarterback Nolan Schultz pushes for one of his touchdown sneaks.