Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Preview
November 16, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This season’s “Drive for Detroit” is in its final stretch as 32 teams prepare to play in 11-Player Semifinals on Saturday.
And there are plenty in the mix for the first time, or the first time in a while.
Of those 32, only 11 made it this far a year ago – and we’re guaranteed at least three new champions next week at Ford Field.
As always, we encourage you to bundle up and grab a seat in the stands. But if you’d rather watch from the comforts of home, this weekend we again will have all 16 Semifinals available, either on FOXSportsDetroit.com or MHSAA.tv. (Click for the full schedule.)
All games are 1 p.m. Saturday. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid
Division 1
Clarkston (10-2) vs. Saline (11-1) at Okemos
The reigning Division 1 champion Wolves have given up a combined 13 points over three playoff games, and 6-foot-5, 270-pound sophomore Rocco Spindler is among the leading tacklers with 76 from his defensive tackle spot. Saline has been similarly stifling giving up 26 points total in its playoff wins and has a reliable runner in senior Brendan Munday (1,160 yards/ 14 TDs rushing).
Belleville (12-0) vs. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (12-0) at Troy Athens
Belleville built on its second straight perfect regular season by making the Semifinals for the first time with a sophomore, Christian Dhue-Reid, running the show at quarterback. Chippewa Valley’s first Semifinal run since 2003 has been keyed in part by senior signal-caller Tommy Schuster (1,480 yards/21 TDs passing).
Division 2
Midland (9-3) vs. Muskegon Mona Shores (11-1) at Grand Ledge
Mona Shores’ only loss this fall came to Division 3 contender Muskegon, and senior running back/linebacker Sincere Dent (1,228 yards/24 TDs rushing, 8.8 yards per carry) is among the standouts leading the way. Senior running back/linebacker Christian Gordon (1,408/20/7.2) provides similar impact for Midland.
Birmingham Groves (10-2) vs. Warren DeLaSalle (10-2) at Hazel Park
Junior quarterback Markis Alexander (1,337 yards/13 TDs passing) has Groves on a 10-game winning streak and playing its second Semifinal in three seasons. Reigning Division 2 champion Warren DeLaSalle has locked down its three playoff opponents to a combined 20 points. Senior Evan Vaillancourt scored in last year’s Final and leads the team with 576 yards and 12 TDs rushing.
Division 3
Zeeland East (11-1) vs. Muskegon (12-0) at Grand Haven
The reigning Division 3 champion Big Reds have marched again with junior quarterback Cameron Martinez (2,177 yards/33 TDs rushing, 610 yards/11 TDs passing) taking over where last year’s star La’Darius Jefferson left off. But Zeeland East hardly can be overlooked; the Chix are playing in their first Semifinal since 1989 (which was prior to the opening of Zeeland West) and with their only loss by four to reigning Division 4 champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central. Senior quarterback Gabe Taylor and senior running back Joshua Fusco have combined to run for 3,162 yards.
Detroit Martin Luther King (10-2) vs. DeWitt (12-0) at Brighton
King senior quarterback Dequan Finn is considered one of the state’s most unstoppable with 1,086 yards and 19 touchdowns rushing and 1,787 yards and 20 TDs passing. The Crusaders are playing in their fourth straight Semifinal, with the last three in Division 2. DeWitt emerged from its third straight Regional Final to make the Semifinals for the first time since 2013. Senior quarterback Blake Gatfield has thrown for 1,226 yards and 14 scores and is the team’s second-leading rusher with 503 yards plus 12 scores.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) vs. Edwardsburg (12-0) at Vicksburg
This is a rematch of last season’s championship game, won by GRCC 42-31. Edwardsburg will look to avenge with senior fullback Caden Goggins (1,185 yards/20 TDs rushing) pacing the Eddies’ powerful run-based attack. Many names are different for GRCC, which has lost only to Division 1 contender Saline. Senior quarterback Joe Collins has stepped in with 2,215 yards and 27 touchdowns through the air.
Chelsea (9-3) vs. Williamston (10-2) at Walled Lake Northern
Both have navigated some close ones this run, with Chelsea winning two playoff games by seven points apiece and Williamston with one seven-pointer. Chelsea is back in the Semifinals for the first time since 2015, with senior quarterback Quinn Starkey throwing for 2,091 yards and 22 touchdowns. Williamston is returning to the Semifinals for the first time since 2010. Hornets senior quarterback Austin Stiffler has been nearly identically effective, throwing for 2,181 yards and 22 scores.
Division 5
Hudsonville Unity Christian (10-2) vs. Saginaw Swan Valley (12-0) at Greenville
Last year’s Division 5 runner-up Swan Valley is coming off its closest game this season, a 36-28 win over Reed City, a win which also was its first decided by single digits since Week 1. Senior quarterback Alex Fries ran the show last season as well, and he’s thrown for 1,547 yards and 22 touchdowns. Unity Christian is playing for its first trip to the Finals and relies on a rushing attack that’s gained more than 3,700 yards. Junior Hayden Large has gained 1,143 of them and run for 12 scores.
Marine City (10-2) vs. Portland (12-0) at Howell
Portland’s strength has been a defense giving up 7.7 points per game, but the Raiders are also coming off one of their highest-scoring outputs in a 40-6 win over Frankenmuth in the Regional Final. Senior Jacob Veale leads the strong ground attack with 1,505 yards and 24 touchdowns. Marine City chews up yards on the ground as well with junior Aren Sopfe (1,087 yards/14 TDs) and senior Jack Kretzschmar (901/11) carrying the load. The Mariners have had two of their four highest-scoring games over the last two weeks.
Division 6
Montague (10-2) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (12-0) at Mount Pleasant
These two have combined for an 82-11 record over the last four seasons, and both are seeking to make the Finals for the first time since 2009. Senior Bryce Stark has shouldered much of the rushing load for Montague with 1,422 yards and 24 touchdowns. Senior Danny Passinault leads a similarly strong run attack for the Gladiators with 1,201 yards and 18 scores.
Montrose (10-2) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (11-0) at Novi
The Rams are seeking to reach their first championship game since 2002 and will take on the reigning Division 6 champion Titans with a balanced attack led by senior Devante Bedford (1,617 yards/26 TDs rushing) and sophomore quarterback Bobby Skinner (1,431/20 passing). Lumen Christi still does what it’s done to win the last two championships and three over the last decade – combine tough defense with a dominating rush attack, led this season by senior Nick Thomas (1,634 yards/29 TDs).
Division 7
New Lothrop (11-1) vs. Lake City (12-0) at Clare
Fresh off eliminating two-time Division 7 champion Pewamo-Westphalia, New Lothrop takes on another undefeated contender in Lake City. Junior quarterback Avery Moore is dangerous in multiple ways with 1,375 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing and 1,452 yards and 20 more scores passing for the Hornets. Lake City, which fell to P-W in a Semifinal a year ago, has already outscored last year’s team and is giving up half as many points through just one fewer game. Lake City also has a multi-talented quarterback – senior Matt Holt has run for 1,496 yards and 18 scores and thrown for 1,550 yards and 17 TDs.
Cassopolis (12-0) vs. Madison Heights Madison (12-0) at Jackson
One of the state’s most impressive defenses from Cassopolis will take on a high-flying offense from Madison. The Rangers are outscoring opponents by an average of 46-4, with senior running back Tyrese Hunt-Thompson the team’s leading rusher (859 yards/19 TDs) and receiver (314/6). Madison’s average margin of victory is a little less at 39-9 but has come mostly against much larger schools. Senior quarterback Austin Brown has thrown for 1,766 yards and 21 scores and run for 1,696/29.
Division 8
Breckenridge (12-0) vs. Harbor Beach (11-1) at Chesaning
The Huskies have stretched their best season ever to their first Semifinal with a stalwart defense giving up four points per game. Senior dual threat quarterback Carter Staley leads with 926 yards and 10 touchdowns passing and also a team-best 882 yards rushing with 12 scores on the ground. Harbor Beach is back in the Semifinals for the fourth time this decade coming off its third shutout in five weeks. Junior running back/linebacker Devin Pfaff is key on both sides of the ball, rushing for a team-high 1,234 yards and 20 scores.
Holton (8-4) vs. Reading (12-0) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Holton’s memorable run began after the team lost its last three regular-season games but made the playoffs as an additional qualifier. After reaching the postseason for the first time since 2007, the Red Devils have won their first District and Regional titles. Senior Aaron Herron has run for 1,548 yards and 19 touchdowns. Next up is Reading, coming off its sixth shutout of the season and averaging 50 points per game. Senior fullback Ethan LoPresto is tough to bring down; he’s averaging 12.6 yards per carry with 2,209 plus 26 TDs total on the ground.
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PHOTO: Portland's offense lines up during last week's Division 5 Regional Final win over Frankenmuth. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)