Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Preview
October 25, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Everything will seem to speed up from here for 288 Michigan high school football teams beginning their playoff runs this weekend.
Temperatures dip below freezing, practices finish in the dark and urgency is at its utmost this time of year. But soon the reward will come into view – trips to Ford Field for the elite 11-player teams and Superior Dome for the best of the 8-player lineup.
All eight reigning champions and all eight 2017 runners-up are back as 11-player playoffs begin at the District level this weekend. Three of four 8-player finalists from last season, including one champion, are back as those brackets begin at the Pre-Regional level. A total of 125 games will be played tonight, with 19 more Saturday.
In addition to watching live from the stands, there are plenty of opportunity to watch playoff games all over the state either live or later this weekend. FOX Sports Detroit PLUS will bring the Division 7 opener at Kent City against Saugatuck to a live cable audience, and that game joins Haslett at East Lansing and Davison at Oxford to make up this week’s Prep Zone lineup streaming free of charge on FOXSportsDetroit.com and on the FOX Sports app. At least 13 more games will be viewable on MHSAA.tv, either live with subscription or free after 72 hours.
Below is a glance at a game of particular intrigue in each division. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Grosse Pointe South (8-1) at Dearborn Fordson (8-1)
These two make up one side of what might be the strongest District in Division 1 – on the other side Detroit Cass Tech (9-0) takes on Detroit Western (6-3). The Blue Devils won the Macomb Area Conference White for the third straight season and tripped up only Week 9 against Romeo – over the first eight games, they gave up 5.4 points per game. For the second straight regular season, Fordson’s only loss came to undefeated Belleville – and this time by only three points. The Tractors also are one of only four in-state teams to give the Technicians a close game over the last two years – losing by just five in last season’s District Final – but they can’t look past Grosse Pointe South toward a possible rematch.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Holland West Ottawa (6-3) at Hudsonville (6-3), Canton (6-3) at Detroit Catholic Central (6-3), Romeo (6-3) at Macomb Dakota (7-2). SATURDAY Brighton (7-2) at East Kentwood (8-1).
Division 2
Birmingham Groves (7-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (7-2)
This is one of those few rematches from Week 9 that crop up for the start of the playoffs every season, and Groves won this neighborly meeting 26-9 last week. But don’t think things can’t change over six days – it happens, and the Oakland Activities Association Blue champion Maples still gave up only 13 points per game during their first winning regular season since 2013. That said, Groves certainly knows how to turn it up in the playoffs. The Falcons are making their sixth straight postseason appearance and lost last year’s opener by just three to Brother Rice after making the Semifinals in 2016.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Portage Central (7-2) at Portage Northern (7-2), Warren DeLaSalle (7-2) at Warren Mott (7-2), Walled Lake Western (6-3) at Fenton (7-2), St. Clair Shores Lake Shore (6-3) at Port Huron Northern (8-1).
Division 3
River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2)
River Rouge’s enrollment has grown by more than 350 students over the last four years, as the Panthers went from Division 5-runner-up in 2015 to making Division 4 Semifinals the last two years and now playing in Division 3. Rouge’s only loss this fall was Week 1 to Cass Tech 40-7, and King fell by nearly the same score (42-8) to the Technicians in last week’s Detroit Public School League A championship game. The Crusaders also have lots of postseason experience, winning Division 2 in 2015 and 2016 and making the Semifinals last season before losing by a point to eventual champion Warren DeLaSalle. Just as impressive this fall, King’s only other defeat was by three to reigning Division 3 champion Muskegon – which has won 23 straight games and the rest this season by an average of 42 points per.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY East Grand Rapids (6-3) at Muskegon (9-0), Battle Creek Central (6-3) at Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (7-2), Garden City (6-3) at Warren Woods Tower (8-1), Haslett (8-1) at East Lansing (8-1).
Division 4
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (6-3) at Farmington Hills Harrison (6-3), Saturday
The Harrison watch continues as John Herrington, the winningest coach in state football history, leads the Hawks into their final playoffs with the school closing next summer. After two straight losses, Harrison beat Farmington last week to earn an automatic playoff berth and slotted in Division 4 after finishing runner-up in Division 3 last season. The Cranes might not seem as dangerous as a year ago when they set a school wins record going 10-2. But they moved into the tougher Detroit Catholic League AA this fall, and all three losses this season were by seven or fewer points – and now they’re back in the familiar Division 4 bracket.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Paw Paw (7-2) at Three Rivers (8-1), Lake Odessa Lakewood (7-2) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (6-3) at Atwood Stadium, Croswell-Lexington (6-3) at North Branch (7-2), Wyoming Godwin Heights (6-3) at Grand Rapids South Christian (5-4).
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (5-4) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-2)
It’s pretty well-known at this point that West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 titles and made six straight MHSAA Finals. The Falcons had to come back from a 1-3 start this fall and beat Coopersville in Week 9 to earn a shot at becoming an additional qualifier – but keep in mind they won it all in 2013 as an additional qualifier. Unity Christian has looked for a few years like a program inevitably on its way to Ford Field. The Crusaders made the Division 4 Semifinals in 2016 and lost last year’s D4 opener by just six to eventual champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central. They lost out on a share of a league title last week falling to Zeeland East, but both defeats this season came to Division 3 playoff teams – and Unity won three games over teams that made the Division 4 bracket.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Berrien Springs (7-2) at Hopkins (8-1), Lansing Catholic (8-1) at Olivet (8-1), Detroit Osborn (6-3) at Detroit Denby (7-2). SATURDAY Clare (8-1) at Manistee (9-0).
Division 6
Michigan Center (8-1) at Grass Lake (8-1)
The Cardinals missed locking up a second straight Cascades Conference championship by less than a touchdown, falling to eventual title winner Grass Lake 14-10 in Week 6. Michigan Center led until the final two minutes – and this rematch should be a welcome opportunity. The Warriors are coming off a 55-7 loss to Division 8 contender Reading a week ago in the Cascades/Big 8 Conference champions crossover, but before that were giving up only 8.8 points per game. It’s easy to anticipate these teams keeping the score low and close again tonight.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Ishpeming Westwood (7-2) at Calumet (9-0), Ecorse (7-2) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (8-1) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley, Constantine (6-3) at Schoolcraft (7-2), Hemlock (8-1) at Montrose (7-2).
Division 7
Saugatuck (8-1) at Kent City (8-1)
Kent City was a seven-point defeat to unbeaten Lake City from a second straight perfect regular season, and the Eagles get the chance to impress the statewide TV crowd by shutting down an Indians offense averaging nearly 51 points per game. Senior Brad Dunn leads Saugatuck with 2,189 yards and 38 touchdowns rushing, and senior Jacob Stewart (918/13) also could go over 1,000 yards for the season for the reigning Division 7 runner-up – which lost only to Schoolcraft, by a point. Kent City gives up just under 11 points per game and held Lake City to 22 below its final regular-season scoring average in that 14-7 Week 8 loss.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Cass City (7-2) at Sandusky (8-1). SATURDAY Harbor Springs (7-2) at Roscommon (8-1), Oscoda (8-1) at Iron Mountain (7-2), Detroit Loyola (6-3) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley (8-1).
Division 8
Pittsford (7-2) at Reading (9-0)
The Rangers have put together strong teams over the years – they’re making their 24th playoff appearance, and the 2008 team reached the Division 7 Semifinals. But it’s a good argument this is Reading’s most impressive team of the playoff era as it outscores opponents 50-4 on average and outscored five playoff-bound teams by an average of 47-7. Pittsford has reasons to be confident too heading into its fifth straight playoffs and seventh in eight seasons. The Wildcats emerged from a four-team league where all four made the playoffs this fall, and their losses both were to playoff-bound teams. Pittsford also beat Waterford Our Lady (see below) big in Week 4 and is giving up only 8.7 points per game this fall.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Waterford Our Lady (5-4) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-1), Adrian Lenawee Christian (8-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-0), Saginaw Nouvel (6-3) at Harbor Beach (8-1), Mendon (5-4) at White Pigeon (7-2).
8-Player Division 1
Kingston (8-1) at Deckerville (7-2)
Deckerville has played in two straight MHSAA Finals, falling just three points short of the Division 1 title a year ago. The Eagles opened their North Central Thumb League Blue title march this fall with a 36-20 win over Kingston in Week 5, and they’re 10-0 against the Cardinals since the teams began playing each other regularly again in 2010. Kingston this fall tied its most wins since 2006, and a ninth victory would tie a high since 1999 – while also breaking the streak and making the Cardinals instant Division 1 contenders.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Battle Creek St. Philip (6-3) at Bellevue (8-1), Genesee (5-4) at Morrice (9-0), Camden-Frontier (5-4) at Colon (8-1).
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-4) at Powers North Central (8-1)
North Central clinched the Great Lakes Conference West ahead of second-place Forest Park thanks to a 52-28 win Week 6, and that was just the latest meeting between the two with potential championship implications. The Jets downed the Trojans 60-50 in a Regional Final in 2016 on the way to winning the 8-player title, and the Trojans beat the Jets 20-6 in last season’s playoff opener on the way to winning the Division 2 championship. North Central, with its only loss opening night to Engadine, would seem a big favorite this time – but Forest Park is putting up 44 points per game despite giving up 34 and should be comfortable if forced to trade score for score.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rapid River (6-3) at Engadine (8-1), Marion (6-3) at Onekama (7-2), SATURDAY Peck (5-4) vs. Portland St. Patrick (5-4) at Portland.
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Jeremiah Lockhart and Muskegon, here against Reeths-Puffer, are among reigning champions seeking to repeat as playoffs begin this week. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)