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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 8 Review

October 15, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The first snow has fallen in northern Michigan, leaves are dropping there and everywhere else, and 171 teams have secured spots in this season’s MHSAA Football Playoffs.

All of those things go hand in hand this time of year, and Week 8 played its part in deciding league champions all over the state and setting up other teams to continue into the postseason when this coming weekend is done.

In the Detroit area alone we could’ve highlighted a second five games, with Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Grosse Ile’s outright league titles, West Bloomfield and Royal Oak Shrine’s upsets and Garden City’s continued bounce-back success. But take a look below at 45 other results that were of special significance as we roll into the final days of the regular season.  

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Mount Pleasant 14, Midland Dow 10 The Oilers (8-0) locked up a share of the Saginaw Valley Red championship, coming back from a 10-point deficit and holding Dow (5-3) scoreless during the second half. Mount Pleasant can make it an outright title this week against Saginaw Heritage, while the Chargers take on Midland with both teams needing a win to make the playoffs automatically. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from WJRT.

Also of note: Port Huron Northern 26, Roseville 14 After finishing Macomb Area Conference Gold runner-up the last two seasons, Northern (7-1) claimed this season’s MAC Blue title in this winner-take-all championship game. Roseville (5-3) takes on Eastpointe this week hoping to qualify for the playoffs.  

Remember this one: Harbor Beach 20, Sandusky 0 The Pirates (7-1) trailed first-place Sandusky (7-1) by a win heading into the Greater Thumb Conference East finale, but emerged with a shared championship to follow up last season’s outright title.

More shoutouts: Fenton 41, Swartz Creek 10 The reigning Flint Metro League champ can’t win an eighth straight title, but the Tigers (6-2) made this race interesting still by dropping former lone leader Swartz Creek (6-2) into a three-way tie for first with a game to play. Cass City 42, Reese 7 The Red Hawks (7-1) completed an outright GTC West title run, their first outright league championship since 1972 (as reported by the Huron Daily Tribune).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Detroit Catholic Central 10, Warren DeLaSalle 7 The Shamrocks (6-2) finished a topsy-turvy two weeks with a share of the Detroit Catholic League Central title. DCC was upset by Orchard Lake St. Mary’s in Week 7 but came back to edge the Pilots (6-2) – who settled for a share of the title as well but can avenge this defeat in this week’s Prep Bowl A/B championship game. Click for more from the Observer & Eccentric.

Also of note: Birmingham Seaholm 21, Farmington 0 The Maples (7-1) clinched the Oakland Activities Association Blue title outright by shutting out the second-place Falcons (6-2), a massive turnaround from last season’s 1-8 finish and four straight sub-.500 seasons.

Remember this one: South Lyon 29, Walled Lake Western 19 The Lions (8-0) are another huge success story after going 1-8 a year ago. They claimed the outright Lakes Valley Conference title with this win over last season’s co-champion Western (5-3).  

More shoutouts: Warren Woods-Tower 26, St. Clair Shores Lake Shore 12 The Titans (8-0) completed a perfect run to an outright MAC Gold title in this winner-take-all matchup with Lake Shore (6-2). Warren Michigan Collegiate 34, Harper Woods Chandler Park 32 (OT) The Cougars (8-0) needed every last point to secure the Charter School Conference title against former co-leader Chandler Park (3-4).

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: Ithaca 20, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 9 Over the last six seasons, only MLS also in 2016 has given Ithaca this good of a game in Tri-Valley Conference West play. But the Yellowjackets (7-1) hung on for their 63rd straight league win and the outright title, while the Cardinals (6-2) look even more like a dangerous playoff team likely in Division 8. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Also of note: Haslett 35, Goodrich 0 The Vikings (7-1) added an impressive win to their league title share in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red, downing the Genesee Area Conference Red champion Martians (5-3).

Remember this one: Okemos 30, Holt 20 The Chiefs (6-2) have upped their win total three straight seasons and with five straight victories this fall clinched their first playoff berth since 2014.  

More shoutouts: DeWitt 39, St. Joseph 10 The Panthers (8-0) have dominated again this regular season, with this win over Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West co-leader St. Joseph (5-3) certainly worth noting. Williamston 34, Lake Fenton 28 Also a CAAC Red co-champ, Williamston (7-1) has shown plenty of grit winning four games by seven points or fewer, including this one over the Blue Devils (4-4) after splitting a pair of meetings with them a year ago.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Traverse City West 17, Gaylord 16 (OT) How much of a difference can one play make? In this case, it kept reigning Big North Conference champion West in first place with a week to play when a loss in this game would’ve created a three-team jam atop the standings. The Titans (6-2) stopped on a two-point conversion to hand the Blue Devils (5-3) their second straight one-point defeat. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also of note: Lake City 14, Kent City 7 The Highland Conference champ Trojans (8-0) aren’t resting on that success, and took on Kent City (7-1) in one of three matchups of undefeated teams across the state last week. Lake City set itself up to play this week for a second straight undefeated regular season.  

Remember this one: Benzie Central 36, Boyne City 34 The Huskies (5-3) have gone from shutting their season down in September two years ago, to winning one game last season to now being on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

More shoutouts: Elk Rapids 30, Harbor Springs 14 The Elks (6-2) locked up a playoff berth for the second straight season against another of the area’s best in the playoff-bound Rams (6-2). Johannesburg-Lewiston 66, Newberry 18 The Cardinals (7-1) claimed a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy title, their first league championship since 2009. 

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Reading 50, Springport 14 Springport put up the most points given up by Reading this season. That the Rangers have given up only 33 total this fall is just one of many indications of how thoroughly they’ve dominated. This win gave Reading (8-0) a second straight Big 8 Conference title, with Springport (7-1) also entering the night tied for first but finishing second. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Also of note: Saline 28, Monroe 6 This was another of a series of winner-take-all league title deciders this week, and the Hornets (7-1) did so in the Southeastern Conference Red for the fifth straight season. The second-place Trojans (6-2) will join them in the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

Remember this one: Dexter 48, Ypsilanti Lincoln 42 The Dreadnaughts (6-2) surely will never forget it. They clinched their first playoff berth in program history, the latest highlight from a season that got rolling when they broke a 33-game losing streak in Week 2. Lincoln (4-4) must beat Milan this week to hope for an at-large postseason bid.  

More shoutouts: Brooklyn Columbia Central 30, Hillsdale 27 Much can be decided with both teams facing tough Week 9 matchups, but for now the Golden Eagles and Hornets both stand 7-1 overall and tied for first in the Lenawee County Athletic Association. Ottawa Lake Whiteford 48, Clinton 6 The Bobcats (8-0) clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference championship with their 22nd straight win and 35th in 36 games – this one even more impressive with Clinton (6-2) running second in the league this fall.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Kalamazoo Central 28, Stevensville Lakeshore 6 The Maroon Giants (5-3) have set themselves up with an opportunity this week to both win the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title and clinch a playoff berth, the latter for the first time since 2004. Central also put Lakeshore (4-4) in a position where it must win this week to hope for an at-large bid and continue a 21-season playoff streak. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

Also of note: Berrien Springs 40, Olivet 21 The Shamrocks (7-1) earned arguably their most impressive win of the season, or at least the last month, doubling up the Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Eagles (7-1).

Remember this one: Portage Central 21, Mattawan 14 (OT) This result sets up a lot of narrative for Week 9. The Mustangs (6-2) are in a three-way tie for first in the SMAC West and put themselves in position to share the title with one other team – the other leaders Portage Northern and St. Joseph play each other this week – while Mattawan (5-3) takes on Lakeshore with playoffs on the line for both.

More shoutouts: Kalamazoo United 58, Constantine 44 United (8-0) withstood its second test in two weeks to set up a Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley championship game this week against Schoolcraft. Constantine (6-2) is on pace for its best offensive output since 2013 and could be a threat in the playoffs. White Pigeon 16, Decatur 14 The Chiefs (6-2) locked up their first playoff berth since 2009 and after three straight 4-5 finishes.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Marquette 21, Gladstone 14 The Redmen (4-4) locked up a share of the Great Northern Conference championship, their first since 2011, and earned a chance to play for more. Marquette must beat Menominee this week to hope for an at-large playoff bid; Gladstone (3-5) is going to fall outside of the postseason with three losses by eight or fewer points. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.

Also of note: Escanaba 38, Traverse City Central 21 The Eskymos (6-2) will only claim a share of the GNC title this week with a win over Kingsford and a Marquette loss, but Escanaba has the Upper Peninsula’s most impressive resume against downstate competition. Add this win over the Trojans (6-2) to notable victories over Petoskey and Detroit Loyola.

Remember this one: Iron River West Iron County 12, Gwinn 6 The Wykons (6-2), who just missed a trip to Ford Field last season, locked up another opportunity to make a run while putting Gwinn (5-3) in a must-win spot this week.

More shoutouts: Negaunee 36, Houghton 16 The Miners  (5-3) have rebounded for an 0-2 start to put themselves in position to clinch a playoff spot this week after missing the postseason a year ago. Iron Mountain 31, L’Anse 7 The Mountaineers (6-2) are headed back to the playoffs after finishing 1-8 last season.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Muskegon 55, Muskegon Mona Shores 35 The Big Reds (9-0) led by only six heading into the fourth quarter, but scored 14 unanswered points in the fourth to clinch a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Black title. Senior quarterback Cameron Martinez ran for 352 yards and six touchdowns, including a 44-yarder for the final score of the night as the Big Reds ran their winning streak over Shores (7-1) to three. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Also of note: Grand Rapids Christian 24, East Grand Rapids 21 The Eagles (6-2) broke a two-game losing streak against the Pioneers (5-3) and in the process forced a tie between the two for first in the O-K Gold with a game to play.

Remember this one: Grand Rapids Catholic Central 24, Grand Rapids West Catholic 14 This matchup of reigning MHSAA champions (GRCC in Division 4, West Catholic Division 5) again determined at least a share of the O-K Blue title, with the Cougars (7-1) repeating and putting West Catholic (4-4) in a must-win scenario to add to a 15-year playoff streak.

More shoutouts: Reed City 50, Newaygo 7 The Coyotes (8-0) locked up the outright Central State Activities Association Gold title, their eighth straight league championship, after Newaygo (5-3) entered the game with an opportunity to force a share. Zeeland East 48, Zeeland West 34 The Chix (7-1) secured a share of the O-K Green title for the second straight season, and after West (6-2) entered the night with a chance to create a three-team tie atop the league standings.

8-Player

HEADLINER: AuGres-Sims 68, Posen 12 The Wolverines (8-0) locked up the Midwest Central Michigan Conference East title outright by sending Posen (6-2) to third place, and with a win this week will own a second straight unbeaten regular season – last season’s in 11-player and this one in 8. See highlights below from WBKB.

Also of note: Engadine 30, Rapid River 12 Four of seven teams in the Great Lakes Conference East are at least 5-3, and Engadine (7-1) held onto a chance of sharing the league title while Rapid River (5-3) remains in the playoff hunt.

Remember this one: Kingston 37, Peck 8 These longtime rivals didn’t play last season, but this win did break Kingston’s five-game losing streak to the Pirates that began when both moved to 8-player in 2011.

More shoutouts: Portland St. Patrick 28, Tekonsha 26 The reigning 8-Player Division 2 runner-up Shamrocks (4-4) needed a boost after three straight losses, and got it with this win over Southern Central Athletic Association B champion Tekonsha (5-3). Suttons Bay 13, Onekama 8 The Norsemen (7-1) reached seven wins for the second straight season, while Onekama (6-2) has taken two painful defeats this fall by a combined seven points.

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PHOTO: Ithaca clinched an outright Tri-Valley Conference West championship with a 20-9 win over Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)