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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review

September 10, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Just like that, we're three weeks into another Michigan high school football season. 

And just like that, the picture of what we might expect this fall is beginning to get a little bit clearer.

There are 128 undefeated teams setting the pace. Some we're used to seeing at the top, and a number of others are enjoying encouraging turnarounds early this fall.

Below we offer glances at 45 games that popped from the page this past weekend, and we're just beginning to tell the story. 

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Davison 36, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 29 These Flint-area powers haven’t been in the same league since 2013, but Davison (3-0) ran its winning streak over Carman-Ainsworth (2-1) to three straight with a late score and win in the Saginaw Valley League Blue opener. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see below for highlights from WJRT.

Also of note: Flint Hamady 24, Flint Beecher 18 With the other three Genesee Area Blue teams starting out a combined 2-7, Hamady might be in nice shape already to win its first league title since 2007. The rival Buccaneers (1-2), however, are hoping to turn things around quickly as they seek to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

Remember this one: Sandusky 28, Ubly 22 These two and Harbor Beach have been in the mix for most of the Greater Thumb Conference East titles this decade; Sandusky (3-0) has an early upper hand this time, but Ubly (2-1) will be waiting for a trip-up.

Other shoutouts: Saginaw Swan Valley 41, Freeland 3 The Vikings (3-0) have looked unstoppable early, this time winning big against the rival Falcons (2-1). Cass City 40, Marlette 14 The Red Hawks (2-1) have bounced back from a Week 1 loss with two big wins including this one over a Marlette team that beat Harbor Beach in Week 2.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Oak Park 23, Farmington Hills Harrison 15 In successive weeks, Oak Park (3-0) has defeated Birmingham Groves and now Harrison (2-1), the teams with which it shared the Oakland Activities Association White championship a year ago. The Knights are impressing especially on defense, giving up just under 12 points per game. Click for more from the Oakland Press and see highlights below from State Champs! Sports Network. 

Also of note: Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Utica Eisenhower 24 The Big Reds (3-0) are the team to chase in the prestigious Macomb Area Conference Red after this win over last season’s champion Eisenhower (1-2) – which edged Chippewa Valley 49-42 a year ago in the game that eventually decided the title.

Remember this one: Lake Orion 28, Rochester Adams 24 The Dragons (1-2) had a tough 2017, which included a 39-8 defeat to Adams (2-1). But they got their first win this fall by handing a first loss to the reigning OAA Red co-champ.

More shoutouts: Canton 47, Plymouth 26 The Chiefs (2-1) handed the neighboring Wildcats (2-1) their first loss as the rivalry started a new chapter with both teams boasting new coaches. Dearborn Heights Crestwood 22, Romulus 20 Crestwood last was 3-0 in 1991, according to michigan-football.com, and equaled last season’s overall win total by downing a reigning league champion in the Eagles (0-3).

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: East Lansing 31, Grand Ledge 28 This one told a lot about one of mid-Michigan football’s premier leagues. East Lansing, last season’s Capital Area Activities Conference Blue runner-up, now looks most likely to provide newcomer DeWitt the biggest challenge in this fall’s league race. But Friday also showed reigning champion Grand Ledge has the opportunity to make an impact despite graduating much of last year’s team. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also of note: Greenville 41, Lowell 35 (OT) The Red Arrows (0-3) are having rare struggles to open this fall, but beating them is still a huge accomplishment – and Greenville (1-2) had dropped three games to Lowell over the last two seasons, including once in the playoffs.

Remember this one: Williamston 21, Fowlerville 14 These two are main reasons the CAAC Red has a new look this fall, and Williamston (3-0) has an early advantage on contending for the league title – although much-improved Fowlerville (2-1) showed it can’t be counted out.

More shoutouts: Clare 42, Harrison 18 Harrison (1-2) remains the last team to beat Clare (3-0) in the Jack Pine Conference – back in Week 9 of 2015. Holt 14, Traverse City West 7 Downing a 2017 playoff team like West (1-2) is a great sign for Holt (1-2), especially after the Rams opened with losses to two more tough nonleague foes.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Lake City 14, McBain 12 Recall that the Trojans (3-0) stormed back from 2-7 in 2016 to 12-1 last fall, and that they earned the Highland Conference title because of a 28-8 win over eventual runner-up McBain in Week 3. The Ramblers (1-2) made this one closer, but Lake City’s 12-game regular-season winning streak lives on. Click for more from the Cadillac News and see highlights below from MI Sports Now. 

Also of note: Manton 28, Beal City 22 The Rangers (3-0) were last 3-0 in their most recent playoff season, 2014, and hadn’t beaten Highland Conference foe Beal City (0-3) since joining the league in 2007.

Remember this one: Cheboygan 22, Boyne City 6 The Northern Michigan Football League Legends division could be shifting as Cheboygan (1-2) handed the reigning champion Ramblers (1-2) their first league defeat after a perfect run a year ago.

More shoutouts: West Branch Ogemaw Heights 18, Wyoming Kelloggsville 14 Kelloggsville (1-2) is struggling after last season’s 10-1 finish, but regardless this is big for Ogemaw Heights (1-2) as it equaled its win total for the last three seasons combined. Manistee 33, Ludington 14 The Chippewas (3-0) have bounced back from last season’s 2-7 finish and handed Ludington (2-1) its first defeat to start Lakes 8 Conference play.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 20, Riverview 6 St. Mary (2-1) has played three 2017 playoff teams to open this fall, including reigning Huron League champion Riverview (2-1). The Falcons are chasing in the league after falling to Milan last week, but now will cheer for Riverview to take down Milan this week and open the league race all the way back up. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald. 

Also of note: Dundee 33, Hudson 6 The Vikings (3-0) equaled last season’s win total by defeating the reigning Lenawee County Athletic Association champion Tigers (2-1), a big step as Dundee seeks its first playoff berth since 2012.

Remember this one: Brooklyn Columbia Central 21, Ida 20 These are two more contenders in the LCAA, with Ida (2-1) last season’s runner-up and Columbia Central (3-0) one of the new favorites.

More shoutouts: Jackson 27, Monroe 20 The Southeastern Conference is treating Jackson (3-0) well. Although this was just a crossover, the win over Monroe (2-1) was impressive and with two league victories to begin the fall gave the Vikings their best start since 2003. Dexter 37, Ann Arbor Huron 14 A week after breaking a 42-game losing streak, Dexter (2-1) guaranteed its best finish since 2011.

Southwest Corridor 

HEADLINER: Hartford 26, Mendon 24 (OT) Mendon does not lose often during the regular season; in fact, the Hornets were riding a 21-game regular-season winning streak before Hartford pulled off this headline grabber. Mendon had won last year’s meeting 41-14 on the way to claiming the first Southwest 10 Conference title. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium and see below for highlights from FOX 17.

Also of note: Portage Central 21, Portage Northern 20 Central (2-1) scored the go-head touchdowns during the final minutes to bounce back from a Week 2 loss and make it five straight over the rival Huskies (2-1).

Remember this one: Berrien Springs 41, Schoolcraft 28 The Shamrocks (2-1) opened this season with a loss but have bounced back with two solid wins including this one over a Schoolcraft team that has made the playoffs nine straight seasons and also sits 2-1.

More shoutouts: Delton Kellogg 28, Fennville 7 The Panthers are 3-0 for the first time since 2009 after handing Fennville (2-1) its lone defeat. Battle Creek Central 30, Battle Creek Lakeview 15 Central’s second straight win over Lakeview (0-3) put the Bearcats at 3-0 after they won three games total both of the last two seasons.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Calumet 14, Ishpeming Westwood 12 A few late defensive stops could end up being the difference in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference large-school title race as Calumet (3-0) hung on to deal Westwood (2-1) its first defeat. The Copper Kings have playoff-caliber Iron River West Iron County and Norway next, but both are in the league’s other division. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Also of note: Ishpeming 46, Norway 19 The West PAC small-school division is loaded, but with this win it looks like Ishpeming (3-0) and West Iron might be favorites with Norway (2-1) on the chase.

Remember this one: Gladstone 14, Menominee 0 The Braves (2-1) didn’t play Menominee (0-3) last season, but before that hadn’t beaten the Maroons during their yearly series since 2008. Menominee shares the longest active playoff streak of 22 seasons with Rockford, but must win out to guarantee pushing it to 23.

More shoutouts: Escanaba 27, Detroit Loyola 24 After a Week 1 loss, Escanaba (2-1) has won two games by four points combined, with this one over rejuvenated Loyola (2-1). Negaunee 30, Hancock 29 The Miners (1-2) needed this after a tough start, and got past a Hancock team that’s also 2-1 and coming off its best season since 2006.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Holland West Ottawa 45, Rockford 40 The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red season is one week old, but West Ottawa (3-0) made quite an opening statement with its third straight win over the perennially powerful Rams (1-2) – coincidentally all three have been decided by five points. This time quarterback Isaac VanDyke scored with 20 seconds to play to extend the streak. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel and see highlights below from WZZM.

Also of note: Muskegon Orchard View 32, Muskegon Catholic Central 14 The Cardinals (1-2) didn’t have the greatest start with two 20+ point losses, but beating MCC (1-2) for the first time since 1966 could be the beginning of a turnaround.

Remember this one: Muskegon 49, East Grand Rapids 21 The Big Reds (3-0) were the state’s biggest story after two huge wins to open this season, but they trailed East Grand Rapids (1-2) by 14 in this game before scoring 42 unanswered points.

More shoutouts: Grandville 37, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 36 The Bulldogs (1-2) are on the board after losses to two reigning MHSAA champions to start the season, but the Rangers (1-2) might also be one of the state’s best 1-2 teams after falling by just a point two straight weeks. Wayland 19, Grand Rapids South Christian 14 Wayland (3-0) has equaled its win total of both the last two seasons thanks to its first victory over the Sailors (2-1) since 2007.

8-Player

HEADLINER: Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 22, Deckerville 12 The Irish brought a tradition of success from 11-player this fall, and the transition appears to be going smoothly as they moved to 2-1 with this win over the reigning 8-player Division 1 runner-up. The Eagles (1-2) have lost two straight but to teams that are a combined 5-1. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Also of note: Pickford 38, Crystal Falls Forest Park 20 The Panthers (3-0) avenged last season’s 8-Player Division 2 Semifinal loss to the eventual champion Trojans (1-2). 

Remember this one: Brethren 42, Marion 20 Brethren (2-1) sits alone atop the West Michigan D League standings with this win over the reigning champion Eagles, a 54-0 winner in last year’s meeting. 

More shoutouts: Genesee 8, New Haven Merritt 6 In its first season of 8-player, Genesee is 3-0 – after winning a combined three games over the last three seasons. Merritt (1-2), meanwhile, has two losses by a combined eight points. Camden-Frontier 44, Portland St. Patrick 0 The Redskins (3-0) have outscored their opponents by a combined 169-6 and handed the reigning 8-player Division 2 runner-up Shamrocks (2-1) their first shutout since 2014.

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PHOTO: East Lansing and Grand Ledge players work to secure the ball during Friday's Trojans win. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)