Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Martinez Shines in Big Reds' Opening Run
September 5, 2018
By Tom Kendra
Special for Second Half
Muskegon High School junior quarterback Cameron Martinez already has shown off a plethora of moves in just the first two weeks of this season.
Week 1 was a display of uncanny patience, field vision and sudden bursts of speed – a combination which produced 30 carries for 290 yards and all five of the Big Reds’ touchdowns during a 36-21 win over visiting Warren DeLaSalle in a battle of reigning MHSAA Finals champions.
Week 2 featured more of an option attack and split-second decision-making (as well as a fourth quarter comeback) during a thrilling 24-21 victory over visiting Detroit Martin Luther King in another blockbuster cross-state matchup.
“I love playing in big games like this, with this atmosphere,” a smiling Martinez said moments after the King game on Aug. 31, as a packed house of more than 7,000 fans exited historic Hackley Stadium.
“There is no feeling like this.”
Martinez has played in big games before, but this atmosphere is a regular part of lining up for the reigning Division 3 champion – which he’s doing for the first time this fall. Midway through his sophomore year in January, Martinez – whose step-father is Muskegon athletic director and head varsity boys basketball coach Keith Guy – transferred from nearby Muskegon Catholic Central (which he led to the Division 8 championship as a freshman) to a larger school and a larger challenge at Muskegon High, which has the winningest high school football program in Michigan.
“When I got here, it was like a family right away,” said the 16-year-old Martinez. “That made the process and the transition so much easier.”
Muskegon coach Shane Fairfield made it clear when Martinez came over that no one is handed a starting position for the Big Reds. Martinez prevailed in a competition with senior Johnny Martin III for the starting position.
Muskegon fans also were skeptical at first, and who would blame them?
The relatively thin Martinez had to replace La’Darius Jefferson, a 6-foot-1, 220-pound quarterback with the mentality of a fullback who regularly ran over defenders while leading Muskegon to a 14-0 record and a victory over Farmington Hills Harrison in last fall’s Division 3 championship game. Jefferson, who rushed for more than 2,000 yards and was named The Associated Press’ Division 3-4 Player of the Year, is now a running back at Michigan State University.
Martinez won over the Big Reds’ faithful quickly with his memorable performance against DeLaSalle, which featured several highlight-reel long touchdown runs, along with many tough carries in short-yardage situations.
The humble Martinez, whose athletic ability was noticed by Central Michigan University two years ago when he was offered a scholarship as a 14-year-old eighth grader, deflected all of the praise and gave credit to the huge offensive line in front of him. Muskegon’s line averages 6-2 and 330 pounds, and returns four of five starters from a year ago.
Anthony Bradford (6-4, 350), who has committed to sign with Louisiana State University, anchors the line at right tackle, and the interior three – senior guards Marquis Cooper (6-2, 330) and Dquarius Johnson (6-2, 330) and junior center D’Andre Mills-Ellis (6-1, 290) – also are returning starters. The only new starter up front is senior left tackle Evan Towers (6-1, 290).
Fairfield said both Martinez and the big guys up front deserve credit.
“There is always a spot he’s heading to, and the guys are clearing the way,” explained Fairfield. “But then he is able to improv, and he does things on his own. He is special.”
Next up is a major road challenge Friday at perennial playoff power East Grand Rapids, before the Big Reds finish the regular season with six straight Ottawa-Kent Conference Black games.
Martinez also is expected to be a key contributor this winter on Guy’s Big Reds basketball team.
Now that the Big Red fans have fallen for Martinez, they do have two follow-up questions: Can Martinez continue to run the ball so much and stay healthy for a full season? And can he throw the ball accurately if need be?
Muskegon offensive coordinator Brent White hinted that he plans to share the wealth more as the season wears on to reduce the wear and tear on Martinez. That was certainly the case in Week 2 against King as halfback Jeremiah Lockhart and slots Demario Robinson and Hyrosha Wilson all had key carries.
White plans to introduce more wrinkles to his team’s attack each week, with the goal a more balanced run-pass offense for the big games down the stretch – most notably a looming home showdown on Oct. 12 against undefeated cross-town rival Muskegon Mona Shores – and then the playoffs.
Martinez has 59 carries over the first two games for 444 yards (7.5 per carry) and seven touchdowns. He has yet to complete a pass as a Big Red – Martinez was 0 for 1 through the air against DeLaSalle and 0 for 2 against King.
“We’re a power team, but we can throw the ball if we have to,” said Martinez, who threw for more than 700 yards last year as a sophomore at Muskegon Catholic. “There’s still a lot of room for improvement. I have to protect the ball better and show everyone that I can run and throw. It’s a great start for us, but we have a long way to go.”
Tom Kendra worked 23 years at The Muskegon Chronicle, including five as assistant sports editor and the final six as sports editor through 2011. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Lake, Oceola, Mecosta and Newaygo counties.
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Crusaders Making Most of Opportunities
When Cameron Martinez transferred to Muskegon High in January, it was an opportunity for Muskegon Catholic Central sophomore Max Price.
Price, who has a strong arm and was a standout shortstop on the Crusaders’ varsity baseball team as a freshman, proved he was ready for prime time with a strong performance in MCC’s impressive 35-7 season-opening road win at Algonac.
Price threw for 150 yards and a touchdown against Algonac, which has advanced to at least the third round of the Division 5 playoffs each of the last three years. MCC is 1-1 after a 21-7 home loss last week to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep.
The other big offseason news out of Muskegon Catholic was its announcement that it has entered into a two-year cooperative agreement to allow Muskegon Western Michigan Christian students to play football at MCC.
The agreement will bring much-needed depth to the Crusaders’ roster, as seven of its 32 players this fall are WMC students. However, it also will push the perennial Division 8 powerhouse up to a higher division for the playoffs. MCC will now have to combine its enrollment of 126 with 276 students from WMC for a total of 402, which would likely make it a Division 6 playoff school.
MCC, which has won 13 total MHSAA football championships and 12 during the playoff era, won four consecutive Division 8 championships from 2013-16. Christian Martinez, Cameron’s older brother who now plays receiver at Northwood University, was the starting quarterback on the Crusaders’ championship teams in 2014 and 2015.
– Tom Kendra
PHOTOS: (Top) Muskegon quarterback Cameron Martinez breaks through an opening during a Week 1 win against Warren DeLaSalle. (Middle) Martinez pulls away from a Detroit Martin Luther King defender during last week’s victory. (Below) Muskegon Catholic Central quarterback Max Price hands off during last week’s loss to Pontiac Notre Dame Prep. (Photos courtesy of Local Sports Journal.)