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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 2 in Review

September 4, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The east side of the Lower Peninsula enjoyed a rematch of last season’s Division 1 championship game. The west enjoyed a matchup of arguably the two best teams in all the state this fall.

In between, Week 2 of Michigan’s high school football season included at least three headline-grabbing upsets, a memorable last-second score, and the end of a losing streak stretching more than four years.

Muskegon and Clarkston had a lot to celebrate over the long weekend, but so did Saline, Lansing Catholic and Harbor Springs – not to mention rejuvenated Battle Creek Central and Detroit Cass Tech, coming off a play that surely will be remembered in that program’s storied history. 

And let’s give special shoutouts to Dexter – which ended a 42-game losing streak with a 36-22 win over Ypsilanti Community – and Spring Lake, which moved to 2-0 with a win over rival Fruitport after going winless for 2017.

Many more of last week’s storylines are covered below in our Drive for Detroit review, powered by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Flint Carman-Ainsworth 21, Midland 7 The reigning champions in the Saginaw Valley League Blue and Red, respectively, are off to opposite starts. Carman-Ainsworth is 2-0 heading into the start of league play this week, while Midland is a deceptive 0-2 after now falling to two 2017 playoff teams. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see below for highlights from State Champs Sports Network.

Also of note: Saginaw Swan Valley 56, Frankenmuth 20 The Vikings (2-0) were runners-up in Division 5 last season and Frankenmuth (1-1) was a semifinalist coming through opposite sides of the bracket. We could see how much changes over two months if they meet again this playoffs.

Remember this one: Richmond 24, Algonac 21 Last year it was Algonac winning this matchup to clinch the Blue Water Area Conference title in Week 8. This time the Blue Devils (1-1) have an edge on the Muskrats (0-2) but with the rest of the league schedule left to play.  

More shoutouts: Marlette 20, Harbor Beach 14 (OT) The Raiders (1-1) broke a seven-game losing streak against the Pirates (1-1), last season’s Greater Thumb Conference East champ. Swartz Creek 16, Flushing 13 The Dragons are 2-0 for the first time since 2012 after winning three games total last season and losing to Flushing (1-1; 9-3 in 2017) last year 53-12.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Clarkston 28, West Bloomfield 25 This rematch of last season’s Division 1 championship game saw many more than five points score (Clarkston won that Finals meeting 3-2). The Wolves (2-0) held off West Bloomfield (1-1) multiple times at the end to secure its second-straight three-point win to open the season and an important first step in the Oakland Activities Association Red race – West Bloomfield won the league meeting a year ago. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.

Also of note: Detroit Cass Tech 21, Lakewood St. Edward (Ohio) 20 The Technicians (2-0) got past Ohio power St. Edward scoring all 21 of their points over the final five minutes and the winning touchdown on a 60-yard toss into the end zone on the game’s final play.

Remember this one: Oak Park 13, Birmingham Groves 7 These two and Farmington Hills Harrison shared the Oakland Activities Association White title last season. Oak Park (2-0) faces Harrison this week and Groves (0-2) is hoping to get into the mix after opening with close losses to the Knights and West Bloomfield.

Other shoutouts: Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 20, Waterford Our Lady 13 Parkway is now 2-0 by avenging two big 2017 losses, this one after falling to Our Lady (1-1) by 29 last season. Birmingham Brother Rice 13, Mishawaka Penn (Ind.) 7 The Warriors (2-0) appear back after a big Week 1 win over U-D Jesuit and this avenging of last year’s 38-0 loss to Indiana power Penn.

Mid-Michigan 

HEADLINER: Lansing Catholic 15, Grand Rapids West Catholic 14 This might have made the loudest boom of the weekend statewide as the Cougars (2-0) edged the reigning five-time Division 5 champion. Quarterback Josh Kramer ran for 149 yards and two touchdowns and also for the winning two-point conversion. West Catholic fell to 0-2 after also losing Week 1 to reigning Division 6 champion Jackson Lumen Christi. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights below from WZZM.

Also of note: Haslett 20, Lansing Sexton 6 The Vikings moved to 2-0 with their second win over a 2017 playoff team – Sexton (0-2) coming off an 8-4 finish – and Haslett has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 48-13.  

Remember this one: Harrison 38, Houghton Lake 34 Half the Jack Pine Conference made the playoffs in 2017, including these third and fourth-place finishers, respectively, and the result this time could come into play if either challenges for the league title. Both are 1-1 overall.

Other shoutouts: Dansville 33, Laingsburg 0 The Aggies (1-1) bounced back from a tough Week 1 loss to Leslie to earn a nice win over a Laingsburg program that is 0-2 but won eight games each of the last three seasons. East Lansing 20, Dearborn Divine Child 10 The Trojans are looking especially tough defensively as they too are 2-0 for the first time since 2012 and after losing to Divine Child (0-2) a year ago.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Harbor Springs 14, Frankfort 7 Frankfort was 28-7 over the last three seasons, so this is impressive for more than adding to Harbor Springs’ first 2-0 start since 2013. The Rams also are working to bounce back from last season’s 4-5 finish. Frankfort fell to 1-1 after opening with a win over Newberry. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Also of note: Rogers City 24, Tawas 8 The Hurons (2-0) equaled their win total for all of 2017, holding a Tawas team that scored 48 against Lincoln Alcona in a Week 1 win to only eight points.

Remember this one: Traverse City St. Francis 50, Maple City Glen Lake 12 This is the third straight season St. Francis has beaten Marquette and Glen Lake (0-2) to start, but a combined 92-15 scoring edge easily is the widest over the recent series.

More shoutouts: Kingsley 43, West Branch Ogemaw Heights 0 The Stags have welcomed back coach Tim Wooer with a 2-0 start after winning one game all of last season. Benzie Central 33, Kalkaska 0 The Huskies couldn’t finish 2016 and won one game last fall – but their 2-0 start equals their number of wins from the past four seasons combined.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Saline 17, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 7 The Hornets broke the two-time reigning Division 4 champion’s 21-game winning streak, handing GRCC (1-1) its first defeat since Week 8 of 2016. Saline locked down the Cougars’ running game and scored the final 17 points to improve to 1-1 as well. Click for more from the Saline Post.

Also of note: Sand Creek 27, Climax-Scotts 16 The Aggies (1-1) are trying to bounce back from last season’s 4-5 finish, and avenging a 31-point loss to Climax-Scotts (1-1) certainly helps.

Remember this one: Napoleon 35, Addison 20 These were two of three co-champions last season in the Cascades Conference, but now Addison (1-1) must catch up quickly with the third title winner Michigan Center up next and Napoleon (1-1) not seeing Michigan Center until Week 8.

More shoutouts: Milan 26, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 21 These two frequently have decided the Huron League title, and Milan (2-0) surely is hoping that turns out the case again. St. Mary fell to 1-1 having played two 2017 playoff teams to open. Pittsford 10, Petersburg Summerfield 0 The Wildcats (2-0) have yet to give up a point this season and avenged a 12-point loss to the Bulldogs (1-1) from a year ago.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Battle Creek Central 34, Richland Gull Lake 33 The Bearcats may be back. Battle Creek Central pulled off a second straight win by seven or fewer points to reach 2-0 for the first time since 2005. Battle Creek Central finished 3-6 both of the last two seasons and last made the playoffs in 2008. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Also of note: Three Oaks River Valley 32, Galesburg-Augusta 24 River Valley had won a combined two games over the last four seasons but is 2-0 for the first time since 2006 and guaranteed to equal its best record since 2002.

Remember this one: Kalamazoo Central 30, Portage Central 14 The Maroon Giants (1-1) this fall are seeking their first playoff berth since 2004 and had lost to annual playoff qualifier Portage Central (1-1) by 22 and 10 the last two seasons.

More shoutouts: Springport 22, Union City 20 The Spartans (2-0) launched their Big 8 Conference schedule by avenging last season’s 26-point loss to the Chargers (1-1). Marshall 28, Battle Creek Harper Creek 27 After falling in overtime in its opener, Marshall (1-1) edged Harper Creek – which has lost its two games by a combined three points. 

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Ishpeming Westwood 34, Iron Mountain 7 The Patriots have kept churning after last season’s record nine-win finish, adding this victory for a 2-0 start during which they’ve outscored those opponents by a combined 76-7. Iron Mountain (1-1) opened with a solid win over Negaunee and will work to still figure into the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference “large school” race. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal and see below for a highlight from ABC10.

Also of note: Escanaba 15, Petoskey 14 The Eskymos (1-1) took an opening night loss to Alpena and needed every last point against this Big North Conference opponent in a game that could prove important to Escanaba’s eventual playoff hopes.

Remember this one: St. Ignace 38, Newberry 30 The Saints (1-1) played through an uncharacteristic one-win season a year ago and then fell on opening day last month, but avenging a 37-point loss to Newberry (0-2) from last  year is a significant step in a better direction.

More shoutouts: Calumet 30, Negaunee 8 The Copper Kings (2-0) have outscored their first two opponents by a combined 78-14 to set up one of the U.P.’s best matchups this week against Westwood. Ishpeming 38, Lake Linden-Hubbell 12 The Hematites (2-0) have begun a bounce-back from a tough end to last fall with a pair of wins by a combined 90-12 score.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Muskegon 24, Detroit Martin Luther King 21 This was everything expected and more from a matchup of two of the absolute top teams in the state, regardless of division. The Big Reds (2-0) took their final lead late to cement the victory and add to a 16-game winning streak and 18-game regular-season winning streak. The Crusaders (1-1) haven’t won fewer than 11 games since 2014 and are expected to make a double-digit run again. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Also of note: Holland West Ottawa 42, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 41 (2OT) The Panthers moved to 2-0 with a second straight impressive win and after falling by three to the Rangers (1-1) a year ago.

Remember this one: Rockford 36, Lowell 0 The Rams (1-1) had lost all four of their games this decade to the Red Arrows (0-2), but got a dboost that should pay off later as they seek to make the playoffs for the 24th straight season.  

More shoutouts: Grand Haven 13, Traverse City West 10 The Titans (1-1) had won the last two meetings between these teams by 27 and 28 points, and Grand Haven (2-0) won only one game all of last season. Saugatuck 49, Watervliet 42 This was expected to be high-scoring and also delivered thanks in part to Brad Dunn’s 316 yards and five touchdowns rushing for the Indians (2-0), who handed Watervliet (1-1) its first regular-season loss since Week 6 of 2016.

8-Player

HEADLINER: Morrice 34, Deckerville 14 Twice in the last three seasons these two also have met in the playoffs, so this might not be the final chapter of this fall. Both times Morrice (2-0) won the regular-season meetings and Deckerville (1-1) won in the playoffs – including 38-0 in last season’s Regional Final – so the Orioles won’t rest much despite an impressive victory. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.

Also of note: Pickford 52, Engadine 7 The Panthers (2-0) won big in the latest installment of what’s become a nice rivalry with Engadine (1-1), especially since both are now in the Great Lakes Conference East beginning this fall.

Remember this one: Suttons Bay 45, Bellaire 6 Both teams made the playoffs last season, previously playing in different leagues, but the Norsemen have opened with a 107-6 combined score over two games as they look to challenge in the Midwest Central Conference West both now share.  

More shoutouts: Colon 45, Bellevue 20 The Magi (2-0) won just two games all of last season, but got a big one off Bellevue (1-1), which won 10 in 2017. Onekama 53 Central Lake 6 The Portagers (2-0) sent the reigning 8-player Division 1 champion Trojans to 0-2 by avenging last season’s 14-point defeat.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Lake Linden-Hubbell's Kyle Simpson (52) and Cole Gregiore (20) try to stop Ishpeming's Hunter Smith. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)