Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 1 in Review

August 27, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

A new season means new beginnings on high school football fields all over Michigan.

Owosso surely is feeling a resurgence after ending a 35-game losing streak with a 23-18 win over rival Corunna. Same for Memphis, which saw a 26-game losing streak end with a 14-12 win over Burton Bentley. And don’t forget Farwell, which ended a 17-game winless streak by beating Coleman 20-18.

And how about all of 8-player, which saw both MHSAA champions from a year ago defeated this opening weekend? Just like that, those brackets seem a little wider open this fall.

Every team has a chance to create something memorable, and below are some from each region of the state that got off to the quickest starts. “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.   

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Ortonville-Brandon 26, Fenton 21 The Blackhawks ended Fenton’s Flint Metro League winning streak at 29, earning their first win over the Tigers since 2011. Fenton has won at least a share of the league title all seven seasons this decade, but hasn’t had to play catch-up since losing its 2012 opener. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Also of note: New Lothrop 48, Maple City Glen Lake 16 The Hornets have won 72 of their last 73 regular-season games, and this one could end up among the most impressive of the string.

Remember this one: Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 36, Hudson 6 These are both annual small-school powers, and last year Laker went on to finish 10-2 despite losing to the Tigers in Week 1.

More shoutouts: Marysville 14, Richmond 0 Beating the playoff regular Blue Devils to start the season always is a good sign, especially after Marysville lost last year and finished 4-5. Grand Blanc 38, Midland Dow 35 The Bobcats have moved to the Saginaw Valley League this fall; although Dow is in the other division, this was an impressive start.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Belleville 40, Brighton 35 Brighton quarterback Will Jontz starred but Belleville prevailed, scoring during the final minute to pull ahead for good. The Tigers are considered MHSAA championship contenders coming off a one-loss season. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Also of note: Oak Park 31, Utica Eisenhower 13 Beating the reigning Macomb Area Conference champ is big, especially after Oak Park lost last year’s matchup 24-7.

Remember this one: Northville 28, Livonia Franklin 14 The Patriots went on to finish Division 2 runners-up after a close win over Northville last year in Week 3. Northville is looking to bounce back from a 3-6 finish.

More shoutouts: Detroit Martin Luther King 52, East St. Louis, Ill. 38 The Crusaders made a statement beating one of the top programs in Illinois. Detroit Cass Tech 40, River Rouge 7 Both made the MHSAA Semifinals last season.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: Pewamo-Westphalia 38, Ithaca 0 The Pirates ended Ithaca's 73-game winning streak in the most unexpected way, dealing the usually high-scoring Yellowjackets their first shutout since 2004. P-W may have graduated some big names from the back-to-back Division 7 championship teams, but there's still plenty of power. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also of note: Haslett 28, Coldwater 7 The Vikings' vast improvement in 2017 is carrying over, as Haslett won big against a Coldwater team riding five straight playoff appearances.

Remember this one: DeWitt 22, Grand Rapids Christian 10 A year ago, DeWitt lost to Christian in the opener and came back to beat the Eagles in the Pre-District round. Could they meet again?

More shoutouts: Breckenridge 20, Beaverton 19 The Huskies avenged last season's opening-night loss, their only regular-season defeat of the last two seasons. East Lansing 40, St. Johns 6 After a one-point game in 2017, the Trojans more comfortably made it three straight against the Redwings.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Alpena 30, Escanaba 21 Beating an Escanaba team that made the Division 3 Semifinals a year ago might be the best victory for Alpena since its last playoff season in 2004. The Wildcats had lost eight of the last nine to the Eskymos and are coming off back-to-back 2-7 seasons – but have plenty to be excited about this week. Click for more from the Alpena News.

Also of note: Tawas 48, Lincoln Alcona 24 The Braves are looking to bounce back from a 2-6 finish a year ago, and what a way to start than by avenging last season’s 33-point loss to the Tigers.

Remember this one: Traverse City West 17, Midland 15 The way the maps sort out, these opening-night foes could end up in the same playoff District for the second year in a row – and West owns a 4-2 advantage in their recent series.

More shoutouts: Rogers City 20, Whittemore-Prescott 17 The Hurons fell to W-P by 37 a year ago and had lost all five games of their recent series with the Cardinals. Roscommon 44, Grayling 34 The Bucks also avenged a big 2017 loss, having fallen to Grayling by 46 a year ago.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Jackson Lumen Christi 34, Grand Rapids West Catholic 12  The Titans have now won three of four recent openers against West Catholic, with this one notable as Lumen is the back-to-back Division 6 champion and West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 titles. Both have new contributors taking over key roles, but with aspirations surely high again. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.

Also of note: Michigan Center 29, Homer 0 The Cardinals are coming off a shared Cascades Conference title and playoff berth, and shutting out another 2017 playoff team was a great way to restart a run.

Remember this one: Brooklyn Columbia Central 24, Napoleon 0 Columbia Central has opened with four straight wins over Napoleon (another of the Cascades co-champs a year ago) and made the playoffs the last three years.

More shoutouts: Pittsford 28, Morenci 0 Both teams have made the playoffs the last four seasons, but in 2017 Pittsford won their meeting by just a point. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 37, Harper Woods Chandler Park 30 The Falcons closed last fall winning six of their final eight games and have to be glad to open with another victory over a Chandler Park program that’s made the playoffs nine straight seasons.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Benton Harbor 19, Battle Creek Harper Creek 17 With a new coach taking over after a historic three-year run, and Harper Creek entering this season coming off one of its best finishes ever, it was tough to know what to expect for Benton Harbor last week. Expectations surely jumped after this win. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Also of note: Battle Creek Central 34, St. Joseph 27 The Bearcats haven’t made the playoffs since 2008 but enjoyed one of its best recent wins over a Bears team that has made the postseason 10 of the last 12 years.

Remember this one: Niles 32, Battle Creek Lakeview 27 The Vikings were 2-7 last season and a combined 7-20 over the last three, but avenged last season’s 31-0 defeat to a Spartans team that also is a regular in the playoff hunt.

More shoutouts: Kalamazoo United 46, Berrien Springs 7 Eric Wenzel tossed six touchdown passes for United in a meeting of 2017 playoff teams. Dowagiac 54, Vicksburg 14 The Chieftains broke a three-year losing streak against Vicksburg and could be the early pick to push annual favorite Edwardsburg in the Wolverine Conference.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Iron Mountain 12, Negaunee 9 Half the Upper Peninsula will be watching as the newly-expanded Western Peninsula Athletic Conference sorts itself out this fall. But Iron Mountain quickly made ample noise after winning just one game a year ago. Negaunee is coming off a rare sub-.500 season too but was a regular contender in the old Mid-Peninsula Conference. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News

Also of note: Norway 54, Lake Linden-Hubbell 30 Coming off two straight nine-win seasons, the Knights will have lots of competition on their side of the new West-PAC, making this opening win over a frequent contender potentially key.

Remember this one: Iron River West Iron County 14, Munising 0 The Wykons are coming off a Division 8 Semifinal run last fall and might be the team Norway sees at the end of the West-PAC Small-school race – at least literally, since they meet in Week 9.

More shoutouts: Gwinn 36, Bark River-Harris 20 The Modeltowners had beaten Bark River-Harris once in the last five season – in 2016, when they made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Hancock 28, L'Anse 27 Hancock’s best season last fall since 2006 still included a two-point loss to L’Anse, now avenged.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Muskegon 36, Warren DeLaSalle 21 Not much is needed to build up this game’s significance other than to remind that Muskegon is the reigning Division 3 champion and DeLaSalle last year’s winner in Division 2. The Big Reds’ running game could be in midseason form already. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Also of note: Reed City 34, Montague 13 Even as Reed City tied its program record last fall with 11 wins, that run started with a 21-point loss to Montague – which went on to win 11 games as well.

Remember this one: Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 21, Jenison 19 The Rangers have high expectations after last season’s record 12-win season – which could be good news for a Jenison team looking for its first playoff berth since 2003.

More shoutouts: Zeeland East 36, East Grand Rapids 27 Both won nine games in 2017, and both should be in league and playoff mixes again. Holland West Ottawa 35, Stevensville Lakeshore 10 West Ottawa went from 2-7 in 2016 to 10-2 in 2017 and may not be done after handing the Lancers their first opening-night loss since 2006.

8-Player

HEADLINER: Eben Junction Superior Central 46, Crystal Falls Forest Park 24 The Cougars have made significant strides the last few seasons and won their last three games of 2017. But the Trojans beat Superior Central by 42 during the regular season on the way to winning last season’s 8-player Division 2 title. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Also of note: Onaway 40, Central Lake 28 Last season’s 8-player Division 1 champion also began this campaign in defeat as Onaway held the Trojans to their fewest points in 14 games of this format.

Remember this one: Stephenson 46, Cedarville 40 These two have played their last two games against each other, and Stephenson has won both. A repeat playoff meeting in a few months would make for another intriguing rematch.

More shoutouts: Engadine 64, Powers North Central 34 The Eagles posted their highest point total since Week 4 of 2016 in downing the two-time champ. Hillman 34, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 27 This began the 8-player chapter for two proud small-school, formerly 11-player programs.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Lapeer's defense swarms around a Lake Orion ball carrier during the Lightning's 17-7 win Thursday at University of Michigan. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)