Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Review
November 20, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Five of Saturday’s 11-player Semifinals were decided by seven points or fewer.
Four reigning champions earned opportunities to repeat as champions.
Three teams advanced to the Finals for the first time.
Two of the five winningest coaches in MHSAA history – and the top two among active coaches – will make the trip again.
One more weekend remains to decide the last of this season’s football champions.
The countdown is on for our annual voyage to Detroit’s Ford Field. West Bloomfield, Saginaw Swan Valley and Edwardsburg earned first-time MHSAA Finals berths Saturday, while a handful of surprises also helped shape an intriguing championship field.
Below is a glance at all 16 Semifinals, plus links to coverage both print and broadcast. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Clarkston 27, Detroit Catholic Central 7
The Wolves (11-2) held the reigning Division 1 runner-up Shamrocks (8-5) scoreless until late in the third quarter to earn their return to Ford Field looking for a third title in five seasons after winning Division 1 back-to-back in 2013-14. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
ICYMI: Watch the highlights from from Clarkston's 27-7 win over Detroit Catholic Central as the Wolves advanced to the @MHSAA Division 1 State Final for the first time since 2014! @CtownAthSec @ClarkstonWolves @ClarkstonFB2013 @ClarkstonBball @TheeJungle pic.twitter.com/yw6SDvJ6sT
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
West Bloomfield 9, Detroit Cass Tech 7
West Bloomfield (11-2) held off the reigning champion Technicians (9-3) to advance to the MHSAA Finals for the first time, with Nick O’Shea kicking a 31 and two 26-yard field goals. Click for more from the Detroit News.
ICYMI: Check out the highlights from West Bloomfield's win over Cass Tech as the Lakers advanced to the Division 1 State Championship game for the first time in school history! @wbhslakernation @wbhsTHESWAMP @19Bellamy pic.twitter.com/9TFH4EOtEr
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
Division 2
Livonia Franklin 20, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 0
Franklin (11-2) earned its first Finals berth since the first year of MHSAA playoffs in 1975, shutting down a Forest Hills Central offense that averaged 38 points per game during a 12-0 start. Click for more from Observer & Eccentric.
Forest Hills Central's comes up short against Livonia Franklin in State Semis https://t.co/6rVIOGYiNM
— FOX 17 Blitz (@FOX17Blitz) November 19, 2017
Warren DeLaSalle 14, Detroit Martin Luther King 13
In a matchup of Detroit area powers, Catholic League Central champion Warren DeLaSalle (11-2) edged Public School League champion and back-to-back Division 2 title winner King (11-2); the Pilots will be going for their second title in four seasons after winning Division 2 in 2014. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
ICYMI: Watch the highlights from Warren De La Salle's @MHSAA Division 2 Semifinal win over Detroit King as the Pilots are headed back to the D-2 Final for the first time since 2014! @delasallehs @DLSBrozone @DeLaSalleAD @DLSFootball_MI @mgiannone pic.twitter.com/O4p1rIUlQ9
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
Division 3
Muskegon 42, Battle Creek Harper Creek 0
This Muskegon playoff drive is becoming legendary; the Big Reds (13-0) haven’t given up a point in their last two games and this time handed Harper Creek (12-1) its first and only loss of the season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
ICYMI: Watch the highlights from Muskegon's 42-0 win over Harper Creek as the Big Reds advanced to the Division 3 State Championship Game for the second straight year! @OnMuskegon @BigRed_RNetwork @HoopsBigReds @LaDariusJ2 pic.twitter.com/6E0E2txo9C
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
Farmington Hills Harrison 21, Riverview 0
Likewise, Harrison’s run is becoming something of a storybook end for a program guided by the newly-anointed all-time winningest coach in state history that will also will play only one more season as the school will close in 2019. The Hawks (10-3) earned their second shutout of the playoffs as well, this time as Riverview (11-2) was averaging 35 points per game. Click for more from Observer & Eccentric.
ICYMI: Be sure to check out the highlights from Farmington Hills Harrison's 21-0 win over Riverview to advance to the @MHSAA State Finals for the 18th time in school history! @FHHarrisonFB @rod_heard @OvieOghoufo @HersteinJon @FPSInformation pic.twitter.com/40OvkYeyOh
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 24, Escanaba 0
The reigning champion Cougars (13-0) ran into one of few opponents that has slowed down its offense; GRCC scored fewer than 32 points for the first time since Week 2. But Escanaba (10-3) didn’t manage a point for the first time since last year’s Regional Final, when GRCC downed the Eskymos 34-0. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Defense and Nolan Fugate fuel Grand Rapids Catholic Central's state semifinal win: https://t.co/JPZiCQug3z Highlights at 11. #Frenzy8 pic.twitter.com/HkLopjAFQ1
— WOOD TV8 (@WOODTV) November 18, 2017
Edwardsburg 32, River Rouge 21
Edwardsburg (12-1) scored the final 14 points of the game to earn its first trip to the MHSAA Finals and tie a program record for most wins in a season with last year’s semifinalist team. River Rouge (10-3) was playing in a Semifinal for the third straight season and hadn’t lost to an instate opponent since opening night. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.
Division 5
Saginaw Swan Valley 29, Reed City 14
Both teams were playing to make the MHSAA Finals for the first time, and Swan Valley (12-1) earned the trip while also tying a program record for wins in a season. Four rushing touchdowns including two by Chase Mendoza doomed the Coyotes (11-2), who won a program-record 11 games for the second straight season. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 25, Frankenmuth 21
Four-time reigning champion West Catholic (11-2) came back from a 21-0 deficit to clinch a sixth straight MHSAA Finals appearance, holding off the Eagles (12-1) as they attempted to reach the Finals for the first time. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
ICYMI: Check out the highlights from Grand Rapids West Catholic's comeback win over Frankenmuth to advance to the Division 5 State Championship Game for a sixth consecutive year! @GRWCatholic @GRWCFootball @wcatholicsports @WEST_is_BEST17 pic.twitter.com/Rq4JSa2QWR
— STATE CHAMPS! (@statechampsnet) November 19, 2017
Division 6
Ithaca 27, Traverse City St. Francis 0
Most of the time, Ithaca’s offense is cast in the starring role. But the Yellowjackets (13-0) have two shutouts this playoffs and are giving up only 7.8 points per game – and St. Francis (11-2) hadn’t been held scoreless since 2013. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
Jackson Lumen Christi 44, Warren Michigan Collegiate 12
Reigning champion Lumen Christi (11-1) earned a shot at its first repeat title since winning two straight in 2003-04. The Titans put up 38 points in the first half and held Michigan Collegiate (12-1) to its fewest since opening night 2016. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot.
Lumen Christi vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate Semifinal Football Video Highlights - JTV Jackson https://t.co/EgHr35Gkqw
— JTV (@JTVJackson) November 18, 2017
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 51, Lake City 8
The reigning champion Pirates are headed back to the Finals after holding Lake City scoreless until the final minutes. Over four playoff games, P-W (12-1) has outscored its opponents 158-29. Lake City did set a program record for wins in finishing 12-1, making the Semifinals for the first time and all after going 2-7 a year ago. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Pewamo-Westphalia Rolls past Lake City in division 7 semifinal https://t.co/xOcZuvQ6zm
— FOX 17 Blitz (@FOX17Blitz) November 19, 2017
Saugatuck 14, Madison Heights Madison 7
The Indians (10-3) earned their first Finals berth since 2010 with a third straight playoff win by seven points or fewer – an incredible showing of perseverance considering also that this run has come after they missed out on a league title because of a Week 9 loss. Madison (12-1) entered the postseason with the highest playoff point average in the division by a large margin, but couldn’t get an offense going that averaged 33 points heading into the weekend. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.
Defense leads Saugatuck to semifinal win over Madison Heights Madison https://t.co/KDTQpkCSGK
— FOX 17 Blitz (@FOX17Blitz) November 19, 2017
Division 8
Saginaw Nouvel 17, Iron River West Iron County 14
Nouvel (13-0) outlasted a physical West Iron front on both sides of the ball and made a third-quarter field goal stand for 22 minutes to reach the Finals for the first time since winning Division 7 in 2011. While West Iron (11-2) did hold the Panthers to their season low points, the Wykons also scored their fewest since Week 5. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 50, Mendon 21
This shouldn’t be called an upset, but Mendon (12-1) had to be considered the Division 8 favorite by at least a few after eliminating reigning four-time champ Muskegon Catholic Central in the District Final. Instead, reigning runner-up Whiteford (13-0) scored 50 points for the 10th time in 11 games, those points accounting for 39 percent of all the points the staunch Hornets gave up this season. Click for more from the Monroe Evening News.
VIDEO: Highlights and post-game interviews from Whiteford's 50-21 win over Mendon in the Michigan D-VIII State Semifinal game. Whiteford will head back to the state championship game for the second-straight year. Bobcats will face Saginaw Nouvel Friday at 10 a.m. at Ford Field pic.twitter.com/Aaf0jsZ0MV
— Danielle Dwyer (@danielleWTOL11) November 18, 2017
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PHOTO: Muskegon quarterback La'darius Jefferson breaks into the second level of Harper Creek's defense Saturday as a pair of tacklers work to wrap him up. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)