Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Brogan Shepherds Lumen Christi Legacy

By Chip Mundy
Special for Second Half

November 17, 2017

By Chip Mundy
Special for Second Half

JACKSON – It has been nearly 38 years since Herb Brogan became head football coach at Jackson Lumen Christi. It is hard to imagine anyone facing tougher circumstances in a promotion than he did early in 1980.

Lumen Christi was coming off its second Class B championship in three seasons, this one capping an undefeated season. Head coach Jim Crowley was named the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association Class B Coach of the Year, and Brogan had been on the varsity staff since 1973 and had been part of the program since 1971.

It was a close coaching staff, but everything changed on the first Friday night of 1980. Crowley confronted a man in his driveway as he returned home from picking up his daughter. After sending his daughter inside, Crowley was shot and killed, leaving the Jackson community shocked and saddened.

At age 30, Brogan was chosen to succeed Crowley, his friend and mentor who had been the coach at rival St. John while Brogan played for St. Mary. The two schools merged in 1968, and Crowley was named head coach. Crowley and Brogan formed a strong friendship during their years together, and Brogan was the obvious choice to be the new head coach after Crowley’s sudden death.

“You’re in shock,” Brogan said of his recollections of that tragic night. “It played out slowly, and it was a long, long night. I remember that.”

Taking over the program under those circumstances was challenging for Brogan.

“It was hard just because I missed Jim,” he said. “I had the support of his family, and the coaching staff remained the same and constant, and the kids bonded together. We just worked our way through it.”

A year later, the MHSFCA created the Jim Crowley Award, and continues to hand it out each season.

Through the years, Brogan put his own stamp on the program, but the Crowley influence always has been evident to those who could recognize it.

“A lot of the plays are the same; that play-action pass is the way we ran it back then,” Brogan said. “He established the foundation, and a lot of the things are run the same way. Circumstances have changed, but the tradition has stayed the same.”

Maintaining tradition

Brogan’s first two teams both finished the regular season undefeated. In 1980, Lumen Christi lost to Farmington Hills Harrison 7-6 in the Class B Regional, and in 1981, the 9-0 Titans were denied a playoff spot despite outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 301-26.

From 1981-94, Lumen Christi made the playoffs just twice but still had 12 winning seasons out of 14 and never finished worse than 4-5. In 1995, Lumen Christi had an unbeaten regular season and won a playoff game before losing to Detroit Country Day.

The following season, Lumen Christi won its third MHSAA title – and the first with Brogan as head coach – and the most prolonged successful run in school history was underway.

Since 1992, Lumen Christi has not been worse than 6-3 in any season. It also has 263 wins – an average of more than 10 per season over 26 seasons. The Titans won seven MHSAA championships during that run, including two capping back-to-back 14-0 seasons in 2000-01.

Brogan said each title brought its own satisfaction.

“They are all different, and the kids are different,” he said. “Sometimes you expect it, like in 2000 and 2001 and in 1996. It would have been a disappointment if we didn’t win those.”

And sometimes the expectations are not as high. At the beginning of the 2016 season, Brogan saw promise in his young team but was unsure how things would turn out. It did not look real promising after the Titans started 1-2.

“The team did what we hoped it would do,” he said. “We knew we weren’t going to be very good early on, and we weren’t, but we were young and we had a chance to get a lot better and we did.”

Lumen Christi ran the table, winning its last 11 games with a few key victories along the way. One of those came in the sixth week against Coldwater.

“The Coldwater game that we won in overtime was a big confidence booster because we had already lost two games at that point,” senior fullback/linebacker Kyle Minder said. “It was a big game to win.”

Senior left guard Austin Maynard, then a junior, pointed to the victory over Schoolcraft in the Division 6 District Final as a key point in the season.

“We found out we can win it all because that team was probably the best we faced all year,” he said. “When we won that game, we looked at each other saying. ‘It’s possible that we could win it all.’ “

The 11-game run was capped with a 26-14 victory over Maple City Glen Lake at Ford Field in Detroit.

“It was what everyone dreams about; the feeling that happens when you win is indescribable,” Maynard said. “It feels like you are on top of the world and nothing can bring you down. You know all the hard work that you put in during the summer paid off.”

The players, however, wanted more.

“They have embraced the challenge of being the defending champions,” Brogan said. “We’ll see what happens, but it’s been on their minds ever since we walked off Ford Field last year.”

Driven to repeat

Brogan does not shy away from scheduling a tough foe or two in the non-conference, and this season the Titans opened against four-time reigning Division 5 champion Grand Rapids West Catholic for the second year in a row. They knocked off the Falcons 27-24 to get the season off to a rousing start.

“In the non-conference, there is nobody better to play than Grand Rapids West Catholic,” senior tight end/defensive end Cameron White said. “Just having them on our schedule is great, and to come out with a win was awesome.”

One of the neat aspects for this group of players is that it is the first to complete an entire season of playing its home games at the high school. In the past, Lumen Christi has always played its home games at Withington Community Stadium, which is located at Jackson High School. A few years ago, Lumen Christi opened its own field and eventually ended up playing all of its home games there.

“I was a little bit concerned about that because Withington is such a nice venue, and we wondered how the kids would accept it, but they love it,” Brogan said. “I think the kids in the school like it, and they have their own little section down there in the end zone and there is a lot of enthusiasm down there.

“It’s nice getting dressed here and walking out to play a ballgame.”

It certainly has been a hit with the players.

“It’s nice to be at our own school and not have to travel for home games,” senior receiver/defensive end Sam Mizner said. “It’s nice to have that LC in the middle of the field all of the time.”

Maynard said it’s a different feeling to be playing on the school grounds.

“When we played at Jackson High, they are one of our biggest rivals in football, so playing there you just didn’t feel at home,” he said. “Here we are playing in front of our home crowd at home.”

This year’s team is experienced with strong line play, and one improvement over last year – at least statistically – is on defense. The Titans have allowed an average of 12.8 points per game after giving up 17 a year ago.

“Offensively, we’re physical, and we have a great offensive line,” Brogan said. “I’d say that’s the strength of our team. We’ve been able to block everybody all year long. We have two good tailbacks who have rushed for 1,800 yards and a fullback who has rushed for 750. Our quarterback has thrown for about 1,200 yards and completed 68 percent. We haven’t thrown it a lot, but we have thrown it effectively off our play-action stuff. When we have been able to run it well, we’ve been able to hurt people.

“It’s an experienced group. Most of these kids had a role in the state championship last year. We returned a lot. It’s a mature group. They are fun to coach and fun to be around. They enjoy themselves and play hard and play with intensity, but they have a lot of fun doing it.”

Lumen Christi played an eight-game schedule this regular season and went 7-1 with a one-point loss to Battle Creek Harper Creek in the third week of the season.

“I think it was a very good point in the season when we ended up losing,” White said. “It was a wake-up call that everything wasn’t going to be easy and everything wasn’t going to be given to us.

“It showed that we need to work that much harder.”

Lumen Christi will take an eight-game winning streak into its Division 6 Semifinal on Saturday. The first eight Finals championships in school history were either in Class B or Division 5, but declining enrollment dropped the Titans to Division 6 in 2014. But that hasn’t necessarily meant an easier road to a title. This year, perennial powers Ithaca and Traverse City St. Francis are meeting in the other Semifinal game.

“Last year, I thought Division 5 was more difficult than Division 6, but overall this year, Division 6 is probably more difficult than Division 5,” Brogan said. “What I have found over the years is that there are really good teams in every division, just the further down you go there are less of them.

“We felt last week that seven of the eight teams who were left could win it, and now, any of the four could win it.”

Brogan – The Leader

With a lengthy resume as impressive as Brogan’s, there is no doubt who is in charge. And the players know of him long before they ever play for him.

“When you come into the program in seventh grade, you look at Coach and he’s a very intimidating guy,” Maynard said. “You know the hard work that he is going to put you through just from the stories you’ve heard, and true football players want that; they want coaches to come up to you and challenge you and put you through the most difficult workouts you’ve ever been through.”

And, when they mess up, they will hear about it.

“At first, you are scared of making a mistake, but you have to do everything 100 percent,” Mizner said. “You know you are going to get yelled at because you’re not perfect, but things will happen and you’ll get better during the season.”

Brogan will coach with an iron fist, but he isn’t one to run up the score. Often during his career a 28-0 halftime lead ended with something like a 35-0 victory.

He preaches clean play and will not tolerate any of his players doing something that might be deemed dirty. His players told of one such instance this season. One of the Titans pushed an opposing player after the play, and as White told it, that player felt the wrath of Brogan.

“Coach Brogan got in his face,” White said. “It solved the problem, and the player learned his lesson. And he learned his lesson at conditioning, too.”

And finally, there is a saying around football circles in Jackson. It goes something like this: “If Lumen Christi is close at halftime, the coaches will more often make the proper halftime adjustments to give the Titans the edge in the second half.”

In typical style of the low-key coach, Brogan directs that credit to his assistant coaches.

“I think we have a great coaching staff, and honestly, they do a lot more of that stuff than I do,” he said. “We have an offensive staff and an offensive coordinator and a defensive staff and a defensive coordinator, and my job is to sit here and talk to the media.”

Brogan is fifth all-time in coaching wins in the state of Michigan and second among active coaches. His career record is 341-83, and he is one of just 10 coaches to reach 300 career victories. He doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

“It’s still fun,” he said. “I don’t have a lot of classes anymore, and in the offseason I can kind of do what I want to do. I’m coaching with great guys and coaching great kids.

“I’ll be here as long as these guys want me around.”

Chip Mundy served as sports editor at the Brooklyn Exponent and Albion Recorder from 1980-86, and then as a reporter and later copy editor at the Jackson Citizen-Patriot from 1986-2011. He also co-authored Michigan Sports Trivia. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Lumen Christi players stand arm-in-arm. (Middle top) Titans coach Herb Brogan talks things over with his players. (Middle below) Lumen Christi fullback Kyle Minder, left, leads the way for tailback Sebastian Toland. (Below) The Titans are succeeding again behind a powerful offensive line. (Photos courtesy of the Jackson Lumen Christi football program.)