Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Preview
November 16, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
A week from today, Michigan’s best 11-player football teams will be playing, or preparing to play, in MHSAA Finals at Ford Field.
That’s how close we are to dreams coming true for athletes, coaches and communities all over Michigan, many in this way for the first time.
Below is a look at all 16 of this weekend’s Semifinals. All are Saturday except the Division 8 game noted. All 16 will be broadcast either on the FOX Sports Detroit Prep Zone or MHSAA.tv – click for the schedule. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Clarkston (10-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-4) at Walled Lake Western
Last season’s Division 1 runner-up Detroit Catholic Central is attempting to reach the Finals for the second straight season and sixth time in nine years, riding the productive running of senior back Cam Ryan (1,602 yards/17 TDs rushing). Clarkston last reached Ford Field in 2014, when it went on to win Division 1, and also has a standout back in senior Josh Cantu (1,383 yards/22 TDs rushing).
West Bloomfield (10-2) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (9-2) at Troy Athens
Reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech is hoping to get back to Ford Field for the fifth time in seven seasons and third straight, but West Bloomfield has won its last 10 games as it seeks to get to the Finals for the first time. The Technicians are loaded with the usual collection of college prospects, led by junior running back Jaren Mangham and senior receiver Brandon Gray. West Bloomfield is driven by Division I quarterback recruit Bryce Veasley (3,208 yards/24 TDs passing) and three receivers with at least 800 yards through the air.
Division 2
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (12-0) vs. Livonia Franklin (10-2) at Grand Ledge
One of these two is going to make its first MHSAA Final in more than two decades. If it’s Forest Hills Central, it could be because of another shutdown performance by a defense giving up only 12.4 points per game in part because it's taken away 37 turnovers. The Rangers will have to stand up against a Franklin offense that has grown up substantially over the last three months. Two of the Patriots’ five games where they scored at least 30 points have come during the playoffs, and four of the five have come over the last five weeks.
Detroit Martin Luther King (11-1) vs. Warren DeLaSalle (10-2) at Hazel Park
King is two wins from a third straight Division 2 title and statistically might have its most impressive defense of the last three seasons. The Crusaders have given up only 45 points over the last five weeks in Detroit Public School League and MHSAA playoff games. Warren DeLaSalle was the last team before King to win Division 2, claiming the title in 2014. Senior quarterback Luke Pfromm jumps out most from an offense that’s gained more than 3,800 yards. He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes and run for 10 scores.
Division 3
Muskegon (12-0) vs. Battle Creek Harper Creek (12-0) at East Kentwood
Muskegon’s aura of invincibility got another boost last week with a 49-0 defeat of previously one-loss DeWitt. Senior quarterback La’darius Jefferson (1,163 yards/20 TDs passing, 1,678 yards/25 TDs rushing) is a player fans statewide are eager to see. Harper Creek, meanwhile, has tied its finest start and single-season record for wins. An offense with more than 3,200 yards on the ground can help the defense too; senior quarterback Jackson Malone and junior running back Jalonty Hervey have combined to run for 1,898 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Riverview (11-1) vs. Farmington Hills Harrison (9-3) at Rochester
The Hawks are doing their best to add to a proud legacy before the school closes in two years, as they’re aiming this weekend to make their first MHSAA Final since 2010. Junior running back Roderick Heard has run for 1,321 yards and 22 touchdowns and also is among the team’s leading receivers. The Pirates’ story just keeps getting better too – 2-7 last year, now playing in their first Semifinal since 2002. With 4,333 rushing yards and only 317 through the air, there’s no secret how Riverview will attack; seniors Cameron Rogers (1,310 yards/18 TDs) and Zach Guthrie (1,133 yards/11 TDs) both average more than seven yards per carry.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0) vs. Escanaba (10-2) at Traverse City Thirlby Field
Escanaba’s first Semifinal run since 1981 has it now facing the reigning champion Cougars for the second straight season; GRCC won their Regional Final 34-0 last fall. Both feature battering backs. Senior Logan Carroll has carried a load for the Eskymos, and three of Escanaba’s five most productive offensive games have come in the playoffs. Meanwhile, senior Nolan Fugate has put up some incredible rushing totals for GRCC including 477 yards and five touchdowns rushing in a regular-season win over Comstock Park.
Edwardsburg (11-1) vs. River Rouge (10-2) at Jackson
Edwardsburg will play in its fourth Semifinal in eight seasons looking to break through with its first MHSAA championship game berth. Senior Nick Bradley leads a rushing attack that’s gained 4,700 yards with 1,210 and 12 touchdowns. Standing in the way is River Rouge, which has played in this round two years in a row and was Division 5 runner-up in 2015. The Panthers have given up only 30 points during the playoffs, with senior safety Reggie Pearson among standouts.
Division 5
Saginaw Swan Valley (11-1) vs. Reed City (11-1) at Greenville
Swan Valley is another program looking to break through to the final weekend for the first time, playing in its fourth Semifinal in 12 seasons and first since 2012. Junior quarterback Alex Fries (1,176 yards/16 TDs passing) starred last week as Swan Valley’s leading rusher missed his second straight game. Reed City is looking to extend its longest playoff run – the Regional title was its first. The Coyotes outlasted one of their toughest defensive challenges last week in winning 46-34 over 2016 Division 5 runner-up Menominee.
Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (10-2) at Fenton
The Eagles’ path to play in a championship game for the first time must go through four-time reigning champ West Catholic. The Falcons follow an experienced leader in senior quarterback Gaetano Vallone, who has thrown for 2,332 yards and 29 touchdowns and also is the team’s leading rusher with 781 yards and 12 scores. Frankenmuth senior quarterback Zach Jacobs is similarly resourceful. He’s thrown for 1,019 yards and 15 touchdowns on only 88 attempts, and he’s also the leading rusher with 973 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground.
Division 6
Ithaca (12-0) vs. Traverse City St. Francis (11-1) at Mount Pleasant
The Yellowjackets has return to the Finals for the seventh time in eight seasons. Senior Joey Bentley is the latest in a line of stellar Ithaca quarterbacks – he’s thrown for 1,876 yards and 27 touchdowns and run for 1,418 yards and 24 scores. St. Francis knows this stage of the game as well; the Gladiators are playing to make their first Final since 2009 but have won three Regional titles over the last seven seasons. They’ve given up only 96 points this season and also can grind clock with a rushing game led by senior Joey Muzljakovich (882 yards/15 TDs).
Warren Michigan Collegiate (12-0) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1) at Chelsea
The reigning champion Titans graduated a 2,600-yard rusher after last season and are right back in the Semifinals this time following senior Sebastian Toland (1,815 yards/21 TDs rushing). Michigan Collegiate is playing in its second Semifinal in 10 seasons as a program and first Semifinal since 2010. The Cougars outlasted another impressive offense from Detroit Central 38-34 in the District Final and haven’t allowed any other opponent to score more than 21 points.
Division 7
Lake City (12-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (11-1) at Clare
Reigning champion P-W graduated one of the leading rushers in MHSAA history in the spring and is back in the Semifinals without a 1,000-yard rusher. But senior quarterback Jimmy Lehman has taken on a starring role in a little bit different way, running for 576 yards and 13 touchdowns but also throwing for 1,430 yards and 18 scores. Lake City is playing in its first Semifinal only a season after finishing 2-7, and of course has set a program record for wins along the way. Junior quarterback Matt Holt (1,821 yards/21 TDs) and senior running back Zack Noren (1,405 yards/23 TDs rushing, 577 yards/8 TDs receiving) key a balanced attack.
Madison Heights Madison (12-0) vs. Saugatuck (9-3) at Lansing Catholic
Both of these programs have been driving for this opportunity for a few seasons. Madison has played in six Regional Finals since last reaching an MHSAA championship game in 2006, but this will be its second Semifinal of that string. Saugatuck played in the Division 8 Final in 2010, but since has experienced first losses of a season in the playoffs three times. Madison is paced by junior quarterback Austin Brown (2,572 yards/31 TDs passing), while Saugatuck junior running back Bradley Dunn has run for 904 yards and 10 touchdowns and caught a team-high 31 passes for 550 yards and eight scores.
Division 8
Saginaw Nouvel (12-0) vs. Iron River West Iron County (11-1), Friday at the Superior Dome
Nouvel will play in its first Semifinal since its perfect season of 2011, when it won the Division 7 title. Senior quarterback Tate Hausbeck can hurt defenses multiple ways; he’s thrown for 2,377 yards and 25 touchdowns and is the team’s leading rusher with 584 yards and 13 scores on the ground. West Iron has broken through to earn its first Semifinal appearance since 1977. The Wykons’ 11-game win streak is the result in part of a rushing attack approaching 3,000 yards this season. Senior Jayce Brockhagen has run for 1,348 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Mendon (12-0) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) at Howell
A common past opponent gives this matchup extra intrigue. Mendon eliminated four-time reigning champion Muskegon Catholic Central two weeks ago, then just got past rival Climax-Scotts 14-6 in the Regional Final. Whiteford lost to MCC in last year’s championship game and has surged back seeking a return to Detroit. Both run over opponents. Mendon has 3,940 yards on the ground and just 346 passing, with senior Wyatt Cool and sophomore Austin Rensi combining for 2,399 yards and 40 touchdowns on the ground. Whiteford has gained 4,572 yards on the ground versus 1,150 through the air; junior Logan Murphy has run for 1,599 yards and 23 touchdowns, and senior quarterback Thomas Eitniear is back with 1,150 yards and 14 touchdowns passing and 785 yards and 13 scores on the ground.
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PHOTO: Grand Rapids West Catholic's Gaetano Vallone scans the field during last week's Regional Final win over Portland. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)