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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Review

November 13, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

A longtime observer of Michigan high school football had a hard time remembering a playoff weekend with as many close finishes as fans enjoyed Friday and Saturday.

Start with the games in 11-player Division 1, where all four were decided by fourth-quarter scores or stops, and nail-biters dominated a weekend that saw 32 teams move on to 11-Player Regional Finals and the four finalists for 8-player championships book trips to Marquette’s Superior Dome.

We start with a brief glance below at all four 8-Player Semifinals and then move into all 32 11-player games. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.   

8-Player Division 1

Central Lake 54, Stephenson 20

The Trojans (12-0) rode a ravenous rushing attack in a snowstorm to earn its first MHSAA championship game berth while also tying its program record for wins in a season. Central Lake plodded to more than 400 yards against a Stephenson defense that had given up only 16.7 points per game entering the day. The Eagles finished 9-3. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Deckerville 52, Bellevue 18

Deckerville rattled off 44 straight points to earn a second straight trip to the MHSAA Finals. Bellevue led 12-8 early before the Eagles (11-1) went on their run against another otherwise-stellar defense – the Broncos (10-2) were giving up only 9.5 points per game entering the day and this season set a program record for wins. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

8-Player Division 2

Crystal Falls Forest Park 36, Pickford 34

Forest Park will add to its 13 championship game appearances as an 11-player program with its first in 8-player after handing Pickford its lone loss this season. The Trojans (10-2) last made a championship game in 2009 and moved to 8-player a year ago. They put up the most points Pickford (11-1) gave up in a game this season by 12. The Panthers fell in their second straight Semifinal but moved to 27-7 in three years of 8-player. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Portland St. Patrick 33, Kinde-North Huron 14

The Shamrocks are 53-12 since moving to 8-player in 2012, and in their first Semifinal since that first season finally broke through to earn a first championship game berth since 1997. St. Patrick (11-1) scored 21 points during the fourth quarter to pull away against a North Huron program that also was playing in its second 8-Player Semifinal and finished 10-2. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

11-Player Division 1

West Bloomfield 28, Utica Eisenhower 25

Quarterback Bryce Veasley scored the winning touchdown with under a minute to play to send West Bloomfield (10-2) to its first MHSAA Semifinal in football. The Lakers edged an Eisenhower program much more familiar with this stage of the playoffs; the Eagles were playing for a third Regional title this decade and made the Semifinals a year ago. Eisenhower (11-1) had given up more than 20 points in a game to only one other opponent this fall. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Other Regional Finals:

Clarkston 29, Holland West Ottawa 22 – The Wolves (10-2) scored 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points to win their second Regional title in four seasons and end West Ottawa’s winningest football season at 10-2.

Detroit Catholic Central 27, Canton 26 – The Shamrocks (8-4) stopped a Canton two-point conversion attempt with 34 seconds to play to win their fifth Regional title this decade while handing the Chiefs (10-2) their first loss since opening night.

Detroit Cass Tech 32, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 26 – In maybe the most dramatic finish of all this weekend, Chippewa Valley (10-2) took the lead with 1:25 to play and Cass Tech (9-2) took it back as the clock ticked under 10 seconds to win an eighth straight Regional title. 

11-Player Division 2

Livonia Franklin 31, Flushing 29

Franklin (10-2) clinched its second Regional title in three seasons on kicker Brad Gibson’s 27-yard field goal with 13 seconds to play. Flushing had taken the lead just more than a minute before with a two-point conversion after a late score. Flushing was playing for its first Regional title and finished 9-3, tying its most successful season (2014) since 1997. Click for more from the Observer & Eccentric.

Other Regional Finals:

Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 28, Traverse City Central 10 – Forest Hills Central (12-0) won its first football Regional title since 1995 with 28 unanswered points over the second and third quarters; Traverse City Central (8-4) was playing for its first Regional title since 1991.

Detroit Martin Luther King 55, Ypsilanti Lincoln 14 – The Crusaders (11-1) won their third straight Regional title and fifth in seven years while finishing the most successful playoff run ever for Lincoln (9-3), which hadn’t lost since an 0-2 start.

Warren DeLaSalle 14, Oak Park 7 – A last-minute touchdown gave DeLaSalle (10-2) its first Regional title since 2014 as both teams scored their fewest points since opening night; Oak Park (9-3) tied its most successful season after also going 9-3 in 2012. 

11-Player Division 3

Riverview 36, Dearborn Divine Child 31

The Riverview dream season continues, this time after a close win over one of last season’s Division 3 semifinalists. The Pirates (11-1) won their first Regional title since 2002, with the reminder again that they went only 2-7 a year ago. Riverview led by 12 heading into the fourth quarter and held off Divine Child (10-2) during a late comeback attempt. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Other Regional Finals:

Muskegon 49, DeWitt 0 – The Big Reds (12-0) were great on offense as usual, but defensively this was the most impressive of their six shutouts this fall; DeWitt (10-2) was averaging 39 points per game entering the day.

Battle Creek Harper Creek 16, East Lansing 13 – The Beavers (12-0) scored all 16 of their points during the fourth quarter to clinch their first Regional title since 2012 and hand East Lansing (9-3) its first defeat this season since Week 3; the Trojans finished their best season since 2011.

Farmington Hills Harrison 34, Linden 21 – The Hawks (9-3) added to their inspired run with a first Regional title since 2014; Linden (9-3) was playing for its first Regional title but did finish its winningest season since 2012. 

11-Player Division 4

River Rouge 21, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 14

The Panthers (10-2) reached 10 victories for the fourth straight season and fifth in six seasons by clinching this third straight Regional title. River Rouge never broke away but did go ahead to stay midway through the fourth quarter to seal its closest win of the season (the two losses were by nine and seven). Cranbrook Kingswood (10-2) did cap its winningest season in program history. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Other Regional Finals:

Escanaba 39, Williamston 21 – The Eskymos (10-2) began pulling away during the first half on the way to their first Regional title since 1981; for Williamston (7-5), it was the only loss this season by more than seven points.

Grand Rapids Catholic Central 42, Belding 3 – GRCC (12-0) rode another giant dose of running back Nolan Fugate to its 18th straight win; Belding (9-3) ended its most successful season since 1998.

Edwardsburg 52, Lansing Sexton 30 –The Eddies (11-1) won their second straight Regional title with their fifth game over 50 points this season; Sexton (8-4) did become the first team to top 30 against Edwardsburg this fall.

11-Player Division 5

Grand Rapids West Catholic 28, Portland 26

The latest of frequent playoff meetings between these annual contenders turned out to be another classic as West Catholic (10-2) stopped a late two-point conversion attempt to secure the win – after also beating Portland by three last season on the way to winning the Division 5 title. The Raiders (10-2) fought back from two touchdowns down in the fourth quarter. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Other Regional Finals:

Reed City 46, Menominee 34 – The Coyotes (11-1) closed this weekend’s action in Saturday’s final game by claiming their first Regional title against a Menominee team playing in its ninth straight Regional Final; the Maroons, last season’s Division 5 runners-up, finished 8-4.

Saginaw Swan Valley 48, Muskegon Oakridge 14 – The Vikings (11-1) will play in their third Semifinal in nine years as Alex Fries threw three touchdown passes and ran for a fourth score; Oakridge (9-3) was playing for its first Regional title since 2013.

Frankenmuth 17, Algonac 7 – The Eagles (12-0) won their second straight Regional title and set a program record for wins by outlasting the Blue Water Area Conference champion Muskrats (10-2) in a defensive struggle; Frankenmuth held Algonac to 161 yards. 

11-Player Division 6

Ithaca 33, Montague 23

Ithaca made a statement in a game pitting teams that have combined to win seven of the last nine Division 6 titles. Following quarterback Joey Bentley – 218 yards and four touchdowns rushing, one more touchdown passing – the Yellowjackets (12-0) led by 18 late before Montague added a final score. The Wildcats (11-1) did put up the most points Ithaca has given up this season – the Yellowjackets have now allowed only 101 over 12 games. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Other Regional Finals:

Traverse City St. Francis 33, Millington 26 – The Gladiators (11-1) hung on to win their second Regional title in three seasons as Millington (10-2) put up the most points St. Francis has given up this season – although the Gladiators also became just the second to score more than 30 on the Cardinals.

Jackson Lumen Christi 44, Watervliet 22 – The reigning Division 6 champion Titans (10-1) locked down a Watervliet offense that had scored at least 36 points every game and averaged 52 per game during the Panthers’ 11-0 start.

Warren Michigan Collegiate 32, Blissfield 6 – The Cougars (12-0) won their second Regional title in 10 seasons as a program, ending Blissfield’s first winning season since 2012 and winningest since 2009 at 7-5. 

11-Player Division 7

Lake City 20, Breckenridge 18

Someone was going to celebrate a major accomplishment after this game. Lake City improved to 12-0, extending its program record for wins in claiming its first Regional title and with last year’s 2-7 finish becoming tougher to believe by the week. Breckenridge was 0-9 only three years ago and won its first playoff game just two weeks ago on the way to finishing 10-2 this fall. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Other Regional Finals:

Pewamo-Westphalia 34, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 0 – The Pirates’ fifth shutout this season moved them to 11-1 and landed them their sixth Regional title in seven seasons; Laker (10-2) did contain P-W to its third-fewest points this fall.

Saugatuck 7, Cassopolis 6 – A go-ahead score with under three minutes to play pushed Saugatuck (9-3) just past the Rangers (10-2) for its first Regional title since 2010; Cassopolis had guarded that lead since the first quarter.

Madison Heights Madison 22, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 20 – Madison (12-0) will play in its first Semifinal since 2007 after coming back from two touchdowns down during the second half; the Falcons finished 7-5 after a 1-3 start this fall. 

11-Player Division 8

Iron River West Iron County 35, Frankfort 20

West Iron’s first Regional title since 1977 came with a program record-setting 11th win as the Wykons haven’t lost since falling by two points on opening night. West Iron scored the first 22 points and locked down a Frankfort offense that had scored 45 per game entering the game. The Panthers finished 8-3 after making the Regional Finals for the third straight season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Other Regional Finals:

Saginaw Nouvel 54, Lincoln Alcona 34 – Nouvel (12-0) picked the best time to score its most points in a game this season, coming off a District Final scare against Harbor Beach; the Panthers opened a 28-0 lead on the Tigers (9-3), who were playing in their first Regional Final.  

Mendon 14, Climax-Scotts 6 – A week after stunning reigning champion Muskegon Catholic Central, Mendon (12-0) had to hold off the Panthers (9-3) for 2½ quarters to earn its first Regional title since 2011.

Ottawa Lake Whiteford 60, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 20 – Last season’s Division 8 runner-up Bobcats (12-0) clearly are intent on getting back to Ford Field; they finished this one on a 44-6 run to end the longest tournament run in the five-year history of Everest Collegiate (9-3).

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PHOTO: Ithaca’s Devon Smith (51) closes in on a Montague ball carrier during Saturday’s Division 6 Regional Final. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)