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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 2 Review

November 6, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

From 288 to 144 to 72, these MHSAA Football Playoffs are shaking out a little differently than the last few seasons.

All in all, this fall’s postseason over the first two weeks has included more surprises than what seem usual. This week’s action was endured through uncharacteristic stormy weather – and saw two more of last season’s finalists leave the field, meaning this month’s championship games will include at least nine teams that didn’t play for titles a year ago.

Below is a look at games from every division that especially jumped out as 11-player District champions and 8-player Regional champions were celebrated. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

11-Player Division 1

Canton 28, Belleville 25

The Chiefs (10-1) ran their winning streak this fall to 10 straight and reached 10 wins for the second time in three seasons by putting up the second-most points given up by a stellar Belleville defense this fall. The Tigers (10-1) were allowing only 7.5 points per game heading into the District Final, and finished with their best record since also going 10-1 in 1995. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Also noted:

Holland West Ottawa 33, Rockford 28 – The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red champion Panthers (10-1) downed runner-up Rockford (7-4) the second time this season as both games were decided by five points.

Detroit Cass Tech 27, Dearborn Fordson 22 – A late score and then defensive stand gave Cass Tech (8-2) its eighth straight District title and Fordson (9-2) only its second loss of its best season since 2014.

Utica Eisenhower 10, Rochester Adams 6 – Eisenhower (11-0) crossed for the game’s only touchdowns with 1:33 to play in what was the lowest-scoring game for both teams this fall; Adams finished 9-2.

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 45, Macomb Dakota 20 – Chippewa Valley (10-1) reached double-digit wins for the first time since 2003 with its second victory this season over rival Dakota (7-4). 

11-Player Division 2

Traverse City Central 17, Traverse City West 14

Central ran its recent record against neighbor West to five wins in six games by avenging the 29-27 Week 3 defeat to the Titans (9-2) that ended up deciding the Big North Conference. Central (8-3) scored the eventual winning points with just under two minutes to play as the teams met in the playoffs for the second straight season. The District title was Central’s first since West opened in 1997. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also noted:

Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 28, Muskegon Mona Shores 21 – The Rangers (11-0) tied a program record for wins set in 1994 by holding Mona Shores (9-2) to its fewest points this season.

Flushing 28, Fenton 21 – Flushing (9-2) hadn’t beaten rival Fenton (9-2) during their four years together in the Flint Metro League, including a 52-35 defeat in Week 7, but did so this time to win a District title after not making the playoffs the last two years.

Livonia Franklin 21, Livonia Churchill 19 – Franklin’s 14-point loss to Churchill in Week 4 ended up deciding the Kensington Lakes Activities Association Gold title for the Chargers (8-3), but this rematch win gave Franklin (9-2) its second District title in three seasons.

Ypsilanti Lincoln 21, Wyandotte Roosevelt 19 – Lincoln (9-2) is making history every week, first with its first playoff win ever on Oct. 27 and now with its first District title after stopping a two-point conversion that would’ve pulled previously-undefeated Roosevelt (10-1) even late. 

11-Player Division 3

Riverview 38, Gibraltar Carlson 14

The Pirates (10-1) have enjoyed one of the best turnaround seasons in Michigan this fall. This win gave them their first District title since 2004 and double-digit wins in a season also for the first time since that season, to go with a Huron League title – all after finishing just 2-7 a year ago. Carlson (9-2) also has reason to be pleased despite the loss; the Marauders were 4-5 a year ago and hadn’t made the playoffs since 2009. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.

Also noted:

DeWitt 36, Cedar Springs 12 – The Panthers (10-1) reached double-digit wins for the 13th time in 17 seasons by stopping an offense that was scoring 40 points per game heading into the night; Cedar Springs finished 7-4.

Battle Creek Harper Creek 42, Stevensville Lakeshore 24 – Harper Creek (11-0) won a matchup of league champions to claim its first District title since 2012, also the last season it had faced (and lost to) Lakeshore (9-2).

Farmington Hills Harrison 33, Warren Woods-Tower 0 – The Hawks (8-3) secured their third District title in five years but first since 2014 by shutting down a Titans offense averaging nearly 34 points per game; Woods-Tower finished 8-3.

Muskegon 55, Zeeland West 20 – West (7-4) scored first, but Muskegon (11-0) scored the next 28 to claim a sixth straight District title. 

11-Player Division 4

Grand Rapids Catholic Central 45, Wyoming Kelloggsville 34

The reigning Division 4 champion Cougars (11-0) held off a serious threat from Kelloggsville, which came back from a big deficit to lead in the third quarter. But the Rockets (10-1) ultimately couldn’t stop GRCC standout back Nolan Fugate, who shined again against a defense giving up only 14 points per game entering the night. Click for more from WOODTV.

Also noted:

Williamston 47, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 21 – It’s seemed like there was something to be said for the Hornets (7-4) losing four games this season by a combined 21 points; they made a statement winning their first District title since 2010 by putting up the most points allowed this season by Notre Dame Prep (8-3).

Belding 55, Comstock Park 49 – Belding (9-2) has won its playoff games by a combined eight points to get to its best record since 1998; Comstock Park (7-4) capped a great run coming back from 2-7 a year ago.

Edwardsburg 30, Three Rivers 12 – The best of the Wolverine Conference have been taking turns dealing each other heartache, but Edwardsburg (10-1) ended up with the league and now also a District title by avenging a Week 7 loss to Three Rivers (8-3).

River Rouge 35, Chelsea 10 – The Panthers (9-2) clinched their fourth straight District title while denying Chelsea (9-2) the same accomplishment. 

11-Player Division 5

Frankenmuth 42, Marine City 23

This wasn’t nearly as dramatic as Frankenmuth’s first-round win over Almont, when the Eagles (11-0) scored the winning points with just more than two seconds to play. But a second-half comeback still was required to get this District Final win, which helped Frankenmuth tie its record for victories in a season. Marine City finished 8-3, bouncing back from 4-5 a year ago and with its best record since 2014. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Also noted:

Menominee 24, Kingsford 21 – The Flivvers (8-2) were the best of the Great Northern Conference during the regular season, but Menominee (8-3) is moving on with a ninth straight District title thanks to avenging its 42-21 loss to Kingsford from Week 8.

Portland 35, Lansing Catholic 0 – The Raiders (10-1) avoided a similar fate in facing rival Lansing Catholic (8-3) for the second time, posting a third straight shutout to claim their first District title since 2012.

Algonac 24, Ida 16 – The Muskrats (10-1) have won 10 or more games now for the third straight season, this time by outlasting an Ida team hoping to accomplish the same; the Bluestreaks finished 8-3 and are 20-6 over the last three seasons.

Reed City 34, Clare 7 – The Coyotes (10-1) made it six 10-win seasons over the last seven with a third District title in four seasons; Clare (9-2) still finished with its best record since 2012. 

11-Player Division 6

Montague 37, Kent City 13

For the second time in three weeks, Montague dealt an opponent the first loss of its season – and in this case, the only loss this fall for Kent City. The Eagles (10-1) hadn’t given up more than 29 points in a game, and Montague (11-0) also shut down a Kent City offense averaging 43 points per contest entering the weekend. The District title was Montague’s first since 2011. Click for more from Local Sports Journal.

Also noted:

Traverse City St. Francis 13, Maple City Glen Lake 0 – Although closer in the rematch, St. Francis (10-1) finished a sweep of the Lakers (7-3), last year’s Division 6 runner-up.

Watervliet 58, Delton Kellogg 50 – After three weeks scoring only 36 points in each game, Watervliet (11-0) popped back over 50 for the eighth time this season and just in time to hold off a second try from league foe Delton (6-5) – which earned its most wins this fall since 2001.

Blissfield 27, Brooklyn Columbia Central 17 – The Royals (7-4) also finished a sweep of a league mate, downing Columbia Central (7-4) for the second time to win a first District title since 2007 and after going only 4-5 a year ago.

Warren Michigan Collegiate 38, Detroit Central 34 – The Cougars (11-0) tied their school record for wins, and this was a big one for the Charter School Conference as well against a Detroit Public School League tournament winner in Central (8-3).  

11-Player Division 7

Pewamo-Westphalia 35, New Lothrop 14

Reigning Division 7 champion P-W has won 24 of its last 25 games, and the Pirates leapt another giant obstacle on their repeat quest by handing New Lothrop (10-1) its lone defeat of the fall. The Hornets had won four straight District titles but were held to their fewest points since last season’s Regional Final loss. P-W has won six straight District titles. Click for more from FOX17.

Also noted:

Lake City 25, Ishpeming Westwood 16 – The Trojans (11-0) reached 11 wins for the first time with their first District title since 2013 as Westwood (9-2) ended its winningest season.

Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 18, Cass City 14 – The two meetings between the best in the Greater Thumb Conference West went similarly this season; champion Laker (7-3) won in Week 5 by six points and this time by four over league runner-up Cass City (9-2).

Cassopolis 31, Reading 16 – The Rangers (10-1) won their third straight District title by holding Reading (8-3) to only 130 yards and while gaining only 186.

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 19, Hudson 16 – The Falcons (7-4) earned their first District title since 2014 on a field goal during the final seconds after Hudson (9-2) came back to tie the score late. 

11-Player Division 8

Mendon 26, Muskegon Catholic Central 15

Mendon made the weekend’s biggest football splash by eliminating the reigning four-time champion in this division. The Hornets (11-0) muscled to 364 yards rushing while throwing the ball only once to win their first District title since 2014 and beat MCC for the first time since 2011. The Crusaders (8-2) did manage 338 total yards, going to the air nine times during a rainy afternoon, but were able to put up only their second-fewest points over the last two seasons. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

Also noted:

Frankfort 53, Gaylord St. Mary 30 – The Panthers (8-2) broke 50 points for the fourth time but first since Week 5 to win a third straight District title and end the best season for St. Mary (10-1) since 2003.

Lincoln Alcona 56, Hillman 34 – The Tigers (9-2) secured their first District championship against a familiar opponent, having also beaten Hillman (6-5) to open the North Star League schedule in Week 2.

Saginaw Nouvel 27, Harbor Beach 26 – The Panthers (11-0) won their first District title since 2012 thanks to a fourth-down touchdown with just more than a minute to play after Harbor Beach (9-2) built a 12-point lead.

Climax-Scotts 14, Pittsford 13 – The Wildcats (9-2) handed Climax-Scotts its first league loss since 2008 in Week 8, but the Panthers (9-2) avenged to earn a third straight District title. 

8-Player Division 1

Deckerville 38, Morrice 0

The Eagles (10-1) left no doubt in this rematch of North Central Thumb League Stars champions, avenging the 33-32 loss to the Orioles suffered in Week 6. The win also gave Deckerville its fifth Regional title in six seasons since making the switch from 11-player, while Morrice ended 9-2 after going only 4-5 a year ago. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Also noted:

Stephenson 30, Cedarville 24 – The Eagles (9-2) earned their first Semifinal berth as the last Upper Peninsula team standing in this division, handing Cedarville (8-3) its second loss by six or fewer points this fall.

Central Lake 58, Suttons Bay 26 – The Trojans (11-0) tied their program record for wins set in 2006 with a second victory this season over another first-year 8-player program in Suttons Bay (7-4).

Bellevue 60, Lawrence 24 – This postseason has featured Bellevue’s first playoff win since 2010 and now its first advancement ever to the third round plus its first time reaching double-digit wins (at 10-1); Lawrence ended 5-6 after opening the playoffs by upsetting Camden-Frontier. 

8-Player Division 2

Pickford 26, Onekama 14

Pickford earned a second straight trip to the Semifinals with one of the most impressive defensive performances in 8-player this season. The Panthers (11-0), who are giving up only 10 points per game, held to 14 an Onekama offense that entered averaging 51. The Portagers finished their first season of 8-player at 9-2. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.

Also noted:

Crystal Falls Forest Park 62, Engadine 20 – The Trojans are 9-2 for the second season in a row after making the switch to 8-player and put more points on Engadine (8-3) than the Eagles had given up in a game since Week 2 of 2015.

Kinde-North Huron 38, Bay City All Saints 36 – This rematch of the NCTL Stripes’ top teams fell the same way, although closer than when champion North Huron (10-1) beat runner-up All Saints (7-4) by 10 points in Week 9.

Portland St. Patrick 50, Flint International Academy 0 – The Shamrocks (10-1) advanced to their first Semifinal since 2012 with their second shutout of the season, limiting a Blazers offense averaging 44 points per game entering the weekend; International finished 8-3.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Mendon and Muskegon Catholic Central locked up for a rainy, muddy Division 8 District Final on Saturday. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)