Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Preview

October 26, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Michigan’s high school football championship quest is set to begin this weekend in historic fashion, with a record 288 teams taking part in this 43rd MHSAA Playoffs.

So let’s get right to it. Our “Drive for Detroit” previews powered by MI Student Aid will follow a similar format as during the regular season, except that instead of organizing the must-watch games by region we’ll pick out some of the most intriguing from every division – including the two 8-player divisions in something of a “March to Marquette.”

There are a variety of options to watch 13 playoff games live tonight – click Prep Zone for four free broadcasts from FOX Sports Detroit and check out the MHSAA.tv schedule – and be sure to keep up with all of the scores and new pairings as they’re created on the MHSAA playoff scoreboard page. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard.

11-Player Division 1

Saline (7-1) at Canton (8-1), Friday

This is a rematch of last season’s District Final, a 37-31 Saline win. The Hornets are coming back from a week off after winning the Southeastern Conference Red. They’ve won seven straight since falling to Rockford on opening night, and few teams have had as much playoff success of late – Saline has played in three straight Regional Finals and four over the last five seasons. Like Saline, Canton also fell on opening night – to Muskegon Mona Shores – but has won eight straight on the way to the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association title. The Chiefs also are quietly are as familiar with the playoffs as any program; Canton will be making its 16th appearance in 17 seasons.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Grandville (6-3) at Holland West Ottawa (8-1), Bloomfield Hills (6-3) at West Bloomfield (7-2), Romeo (7-2) at Rochester Adams (8-1), Rockford (6-3) at Grand Ledge (8-1).

11-Player Division 2

Birmingham Brother Rice (6-3) at Birmingham Groves (7-2), Friday

These two have met in District games in 2016, 2014 and 2013, with Groves winning last season’s 24-0 to claim a District Final after falling badly in their first two recent meetings. The Falcons are Oakland Activities Association White co-champions but coming off a 49-26 loss to OAA Red co-champ West Bloomfield. Brother Rice has rattled off four straight wins including two over playoff teams and could be hitting stride offensively. The Warriors’ combined 97 points over the last two weeks were 43 percent of their total this season.  

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Portage Central (7-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (8-1), Lowell (6-3) at Flushing (7-2), Livonia Churchill (7-2) at Pinckney (8-1), Warren DeLaSalle (7-2) at Ferndale (8-1).

11-Player Division 3

Grand Rapids Christian (7-2) at DeWitt (8-1), Friday

This is a rematch from opening night, when Grand Rapids Christian got up big and held off DeWitt’s fourth-quarter comeback attempt to win 38-30. The Panthers rebounded immediately to defeat Grand Ledge the next week for the unofficial title of Greater Lansing’s best team, and they haven’t given up more than 14 points in a game since falling to the Eagles. Christian mostly navigated the competitive Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold schedule, falling only to East Grand Rapids until last week’s unexpected 24-20 loss to two-win Middleville Thornapple Kellogg. Many eyes will be watching to see if the Eagles bounce back this time as the winner has the possibility of seeing EGR in the District Final.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Zeeland West (6-3) at Zeeland East (9-0), Coldwater (6-3) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (9-0), St. Joseph (7-2) at Stevensville Lakeshore (8-1), Redford Thurston (6-3) at Romulus (6-3).

11-Player Division 4

Wyoming Godwin Heights (7-2) at Wyoming Kelloggsville (9-0), Friday

Few rivalries have enjoyed the level of back-and-forth this one has rolled out over the last four seasons, and this will be the first playoff rematch. Kelloggsville won this season’s first meeting in Week 6 by a point, last season’s by two points and the 2014 game by four. In the middle, Godwin Heights claimed a two-point win in 2015. In part because of that 21-20 victory four weeks ago, Kelloggsville went on to finish as champ of an O-K Silver that sent four teams to the playoffs.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Williamston (5-4) at Lake Fenton (8-1), Coopersville (6-3) at Comstock Park (6-3), Benton Harbor (5-4) at Edwardsburg (8-1), Vicksburg (7-2) at Three Rivers (7-2).

11-Player Division 5

Gladstone (7-2) at Kingsford (7-1), Friday

Gladstone has enjoyed its best season since 2008, winning the Mid-Peninsula Conference after moving into that league this season from the Great Northern Conference. Despite taking its two losses over the last three weeks, the Braves tuned up for the offseason against former GNC foe Escanaba and Calumet, two more of the best in the Upper Peninsula. They’ll hope that extra prep work pays off against arguably the number one team north of Mackinac Bridge, GNC champion Kingsford, which has beaten Gladstone in 18 straight.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Grant (6-3) at Newaygo (7-2), Carrollton (6-3) at Freeland (6-3), Lansing Catholic (7-2) at Olivet (8-1), Richmond (7-2) at Marine City (7-2).

11-Player Division 6

Detroit Henry Ford (6-3) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-0), Friday

This District provides an interesting gauge for a pair of Detroit leagues that don’t frequently cross paths. Henry Ford and Central in the other Pre-District opener are from the Detroit Public School League – Ford finished fourth in the Green behind Division 1 Cass Tech, Division 3 Cody and Division 4 Mumford. Michigan Collegiate, from the Charter School Conference, built the highest playoff point average in Division 6 by winning that league ahead of Division 4 Harper Woods Chandler Park while also earning significant nonleague wins over Division 4 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Division 1 Walled Lake Central.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (6-2) at Boyne City (9-0), Morley Stanwood (7-2) at Kent City (9-0), Schoolcraft (5-4) at Watervliet (9-0), Detroit Central (7-2) at Clinton Township Clintondale (7-2).

11-Player Division 7

Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-1) at Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest (9-0), Friday

This is another opportunity for two programs already enjoying historic success this fall. Gabriel Richard is 8-1 for the first time since 1980 after finishing second in the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional I and has won a playoff game only once before – two seasons ago. Lutheran Northwest won the Michigan Independent Athletic Conference title with its second 9-0 season since starting the program in 1987 – and a win tonight also would be its second playoff win ever, adding to the first that came after starting 10-0 in 2008.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (6-3) at Pewamo-Westphalia (8-1), Flint Hamady (7-2) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (8-1), Clinton (6-3) at Hudson (8-1). SATURDAY Ishpeming Westwood (8-1) at Elk Rapids (7-2).

11-Player Division 8

Ubly (7-2) at Harbor Beach (8-1), Friday

Only two weeks ago, Harbor Beach downed Ubly 26-14 to win the outright Greater Thumb Conference East championship. How much has changed in 14 days? Perhaps not much, but the rematch could be even closer especially considering Ubly won the previous two meetings before falling Oct. 13. The rivals are plenty familiar with each other, but Ubly more so with the playoffs – the Bearcats made the Semifinals a year ago, while Harbor Beach’s last playoff berth turned into the Semifinal run of 2014.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Newberry (6-2) at Frankfort (6-2), Johannesburg-Lewiston (6-3) at Lincoln Alcona (7-2), Petersburg-Summerfield (6-3) at Morenci (6-3), Waterford Our Lady (6-2) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (7-2).

8-Player Division 1

Rudyard (7-2) at Cedarville (7-2), Friday

These two tied for second place (with Engadine) in the Bridge Alliance and also had the same playoff point average; Cedarville broke the tie to host this Pre-Regional with its 46-28 opening night win over the Bulldogs. A year ago, the Trojans lost their last three regular-season games and were out of the playoffs the first week; this season they lost two straight in Weeks 7 and 8 but rebounded last week to beat a Brimley team by 50 that may have made the playoffs with a win. Rudyard, on the other hand, fell to league champion Pickford 53-14 last week and has to bounce back quickly to continue its best season since 2011 in 11-player.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Mayville (5-4) at Deckerville (8-1), Kingston (7-2) at Morrice (8-1), Lawrence (4-5) at Camden-Frontier (9-0), SATURDAY Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (6-3) at Suttons Bay (6-3).

8-Player Division 2

Powers North Central (6-2) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (6-2), Friday

These two (with Stephenson) also tied for second place in their league, the Western Eight Conference, behind Rapid River. North Central, the reigning 8-player champion, handed the Rockets a first of two straight losses two weeks ago – and the winner of this game could face Rapid River again in the Regional Final. Forest Park won the first meeting with North Central, 66-58 in Week 2, as both were breaking in new playmakers who now have plenty of experience and lots of opportunity in a division that appears wide open.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Engadine (7-2) at Rapid River (7-2), Bay City All Saints (6-3) at Marion (7-2), Bellaire (5-4) at Onekama (8-1), SATURDAY Battle Creek St. Philip at Flint International Academy (7-2).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Deckerville downed league rival Mayville 42-8 on Sept. 8; they will meet again this weekend in an 8-player Division 2 opener. (Click for more from Varsity Monthly.)