Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Playoffs Packed with Livonia Power

By Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half

October 25, 2017

LIVONIA – Let the good times roll.

Football fans in Livonia have been blessed recently with the success of Livonia Public Schools’ football programs, and this season is no exception. 

Churchill, Franklin and Stevenson all qualified for the MHSAA playoffs, and glancing at the pairings all have a reasonable shot at winning their Pre-District games and perhaps a District title as well.

Churchill and Franklin are both 7-2 and open Division 2 play as visitors, Churchill at Pinckney (8-1) and Franklin at Walled Lake Western (8-1). Stevenson will compete in Division 1 and, even though the Spartans are 5-4, will play host to Detroit Catholic Central (5-4). All three games are Friday at 7 p.m.

All three are members of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association. Franklin has made the playoffs three consecutive seasons and reached a Division 2 Semifinal in 2015. Churchill has qualified for the playoffs five of the last seven seasons and Stevenson, the most consistent program of the three, is in for the fifth time in the last six seasons. (Livonia Clarenceville, another public school in Livonia, is not part of the Livonia Public School system and did not make the playoffs this fall.)

The three head coaches agree that the source of this recent success is a thriving little league program, the Livonia Junior Athletic League. Four teams compete in the league – the Blue Jays, Eagles, Falcons and Orioles – and players range in age from 6 to 13. Those 6 and 7-year-olds compete in flag football.

The LJAL is the lifeline to the high schools because Livonia Public Schools does not sponsor middle school or junior high football.

“We’ve always had a strong little league program,” Franklin coach Chris Kelbert said. “With the little league program, our feeder program, we’ve worked hard to develop a system for them to do what we do.”

The Livonia schools haven’t always been so successful. Franklin, for example, won the first Class A title in 1975, then went 30 years before making its next playoff appearance. Stevenson made the playoffs just once in the first 19 seasons of the MHSAA tournament. But since 1993, the Spartans have qualified 16 times highlighted by a Division 1 championship game appearance in 2007 and a Semifinal appearance the following season.

Then there’s Churchill. The Chargers made the playoffs in 1979, then seemingly disappeared. Not only did they not make the playoffs again until 2004, the Chargers had one of the poorest runs in terms of victories in state history. From 1990-96 they won one game. At one point Churchill lost 34 consecutive. Following those rugged years the Chargers finished 2-7 five straight season (1997-2001).

Times have changed. John Filiatraut, now the head coach at Dearborn Divine Child, helped guide the Chargers out of those rough times as they won the school’s first District title in 2004 and finished 8-4. Except for a 1-8 season in 2005, Churchill has remained competitive since that bounce-back season.

Bill DiFillipo was an assistant under Filiatraut and is in his fifth season as Churchill’s head coach. He said talent in his program keeps improving and he credits the coaches, on his team and within the LJAL, for that progress. He also said the healthy rivalry that exists between the three schools has sparked enthusiasm and an increase in competitiveness.

“This is Churchill’s best run,” he said. “You have to have good feeder teams. We’ve done a good job of developing kids. Our senior class was 0-9 as freshmen, and they were 2-7 on the JV. Over at Franklin, Chris has done a good job. When Randy (Micallef) took over, Stevenson was down. Randy and his staff have done a good job of getting them back.”

Stevenson won just five games combined in 2010 and 2011. The Spartans made the playoffs in 2012 and missed the playoffs the following season, but then rattled off three straight appearances and will make it four straight this weekend.

The three programs annually play for a city championship. Stevenson has won the last two defeating Churchill and Franklin in each of the last two seasons.

Franklin’s only losses this fall were to Churchill and Stevenson, and the Patriots have won five straight since the second of those defeats.

Kelbert and his staff have done a remarkable job this season. Running back Isaac Moore was a part-time starter last season, and none of the other 10 starters on offense had started even one game. Franklin returned three starters on defense.

“We have a young offensive line,” Kelbert said. “We have two seniors there, and neither one played offense line before. But we’re clicking now. It’s been frustrating at times. We knew we had some good players coming back. After the Howell game (a 21-0 Franklin victory in Week 5), we saw some improvement. Our defense has been lights out all season. We adopted a new philosophy on defense. We wanted to be more athletic and have more speed. When Romeo won (the 2016 Division 1) title, they won it with small linemen who couldn’t be blocked. We figured we could use that philosophy. The game has changed dramatically in the 19 years I’ve coached in high school.”

Kelbert faced a different test this season. He’s starting his son, Jacob, at quarterback, and he’s just a sophomore. Jacob Kelbert played on the freshmen team last season after going through Livonia’s little league program.

“It has its challenges,” Kelbert said of coaching the eldest of his three sons. “I forget he’s young sometimes. I expect him to play like a senior.”

DiFillipo also has a first-year starter at quarterback, but at least this one was on varsity last season as a back-up. Junior Drew Alsobrooks has played well this season, and he’s benefitted from an experienced offensive line. Four seniors start on the offensive line and the lone junior, Ethan Gyurnek, started last season as a sophomore.

DiFillipo adds that it’s been a team effort.

“Our defense has played the best in the 10 years that I’ve been here,” he said. “We’re giving up 14 points a game.

“Franklin and us have had the best two defenses in our division (KLAA Gold). Grand Blanc has the best offense, and we held them to nine points. Franklin shut them out.”

It’s been a different season for Stevenson. The Spartans started 4-0, then lost three straight. They beat Salem, 31-10, in Week 8 before losing to Franklin, 35-21, in a KLAA crossover.

Micallef said he’s noticed an improvement in the level of skilled athletes to come through the three programs. Specifically in his program, players like quarterback Parker Graham, all-purpose athlete George Ferguson and two-way back Devin Dunn all have had experiences in other sports as well that have contributed to their competitive nature.

“The coaches have become progressively better across the board,” Micallef said. “And some of the kids who might have gone to private schools now are staying put. Catholic Central moving from Redford to Novi has had a hand in keeping some of the Livonia kids here.

“We have some really good athletes this season. Parker was a running back last year, and we played him in the secondary, too. But with him moving to quarterback, I’ve kept him off the defense. But I had him at linebacker last week, and he had like seven or eight tackles. Both him and Ferguson play basketball and baseball, and Devin is a multi-sport athlete, too. In crunch times, these kids have played in so many big baseball games or big basketball games that they’re not afraid to make the big play. They embrace that.”

Tom Markowski is a columnist and directs website coverage for the State Champs! Sports Network. He previously covered primarily high school sports for the The Detroit News from 1984-2014, focusing on the Detroit area and contributing to statewide coverage of football and basketball. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Clockwise from left, Churchill’s Martell Dooley, Stevenson’s Parker Graham and Franklin’s Isaac Moore are among standouts for the Livonia Public Schools’ three playoff-bound varsity teams. (Middle top) Churchill junior quarterback Drew Alsobrooks has stepped in well as the starter this fall. (Middle below) Senior linebacker Jacob Mass helps key a more athletic Franklin defense this season. (Below) Senior George Ferguson is one of the multi-sport athletes making major contributions to Stevenson’s success. (Photos courtesy of the Churchill, Stevenson and Franklin football programs.)