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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review

October 16, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor 

We’re chewing on a lot of football numbers this week at the MHSAA office with this season’s playoff selection just days away.

Some of the most important after Week 8 are 176 – as in the number of 11-player teams that have earned spots in that 256-team playoff field – and 78, the number of teams one win away from automatic qualification.

But this second-to-last weekend of the regular season gave us plenty of other numbers to enjoy as well. Like 431, the number of career wins and an MHSAA record for Farmington Hills Harrison coach John Herrington after his team defeated Berkley 39-0. Ionia also set an MHSAA record Friday, coming back from 32 points down at halftime to beat McBain 41-40 in the largest football comeback in MHSAA history.

How about 703, the number of running (238) and passing (465) yards combined for Essexville Garber’s Hunter Bridenbaugh in a 60-47 win over North Branch? That total, as reported by the Bay City Times, will rank third in the national record book once submitted and approved. Then there’s 616, the total passing yards for Grayling’s Justin Nicholas in a 58-46 win over Benzie Central as reported by the Traverse City Record-Eagle – which rank as the second-most passing yards in one game in MHSAA history.

Finally, 27. Congrats to Flat Rock, which clinched its first playoff berth since 1990 – 27 years ago – with a 14-7 win over New Boston Huron.

And if that’s not all … check out below the results that jumped out most from all of the statewide action in this week’s “Drive for Detroit” powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

Algonac 34, Richmond 14

One of the best stories statewide over the last few seasons, Algonac (7-1) clinched its first outright league title since 1972 by downing second-place Richmond in the Blue Water Area Conference after splitting the championship with the Blue Devils (7-1) in 2015. It’s key to recall Algonac was 1-8 in 2014 and hadn’t had a winning season since 2005 before rattling off a combined 28-5 record over the last three. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Also noted:

Midland Dow 45, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 14 – Thanks to a one-point loss to Bay City Central in Week 2, Dow (7-1) trailed the Cavaliers (5-3) by a win in the Saginaw Valley League Red entering the conference finale before forcing a shared title.

Midland 35, Lapeer 14 – The Chemics (7-1) finished a perfect run through the SVL Blue while putting third-place Lapeer (5-3) into a must-win situation this week to guarantee a playoff spot.

Saginaw Swan Valley 36, Alma 19 – This was the final obstacle Swan Valley (7-1) needed to navigate to clinch the outright Tri-Valley Conference Central title; Alma (6-2) is one of three teams that tied for second.

Harbor Beach 26, Ubly 14 – The Pirates (7-1) came away with the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing second-place Ubly (6-2) in their final league game of this season. 

Greater Detroit

Detroit Martin Luther King 17, Detroit Cass Tech 7

With these rivals this season in different divisions of the Detroit Public School League, King (7-1) avenged a pair of 2016 losses to the rival Technicians while holding Cass Tech (5-2) to its fewest points since 2013. But while winning this matchup frequently makes the victor the best in the PSL, King still has a tough one ahead – the Crusaders will face undefeated East English on Friday in the PSL A championship game. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Also noted:

Warren DeLaSalle 20, Detroit Catholic Central 6 – The Pilots (6-2) finished a perfect run through the Catholic League Central, earning themselves a rematch this week with DCC (5-3) this time for the Prep Bowl A-B championship.

Warren Michigan Collegiate 46, Harper Woods Chandler Park 20 – The Charter School Conference title came down to this game as both teams entered undefeated in league play; Michigan Collegiate (8-0) remains undefeated overall while Chandler Park (5-3) must win this week to guarantee a playoff spot.

Grosse Pointe North 45, Roseville 28 – The Norsemen (5-2) and Port Huron both trailed Roseville (5-3) by a win in the Macomb Area Conference Blue entering the weekend, and all three will share the league title thanks to North’s win.

Ferndale 20, Hazel Park 17 (2OT) – Ferndale (7-1) also forced a three-way championship in the Oakland Activities Association Blue, giving Hazel Park (5-3) its first league loss to create a first-place tie between these two teams and Auburn Hills Avondale. 

Mid-Michigan

Haslett 20, Williamston 14

Coming off a league title-deciding loss to rival DeWitt, Haslett bounced back to move to 6-2 – two wins better than a year ago and tying their most since 2006. The Vikings’ good fortune was accompanied by more hard luck for Williamston (5-3), which has three defeats by a combined 14 points and must win this week to guarantee a playoff spot against a Lake Fenton team that hasn’t lost since opening night. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted:

Olivet 27, Berrien Springs 17 – The Eagles (8-0) moved to within one more win of their first perfect regular season since 2005 by avenging last season’s 61-7 playoff loss to the Shamrocks (6-2).

East Lansing 9, Lansing Sexton 7 – This shouldn’t result in Sexton (5-3) not earning a playoff bid with winless Eastern up next, but it got East Lansing (6-2) into the playoffs with a more precarious game coming up against playoff hopeful Okemos.

DeWitt 33, Linden 3 – The Panthers (7-1) have won six straight recent meetings with Linden (6-2), including the first two of this string in the playoffs.

Portland 29, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 27 – In a great playoff prep game for both, Portland (7-1) survived its closest since a Week 2 loss while the Fighting Irish (6-2) have suffered their two defeats by a combined seven points. 

Northern Lower Peninsula

Lake City 35, Lincoln Alcona 34

The Highland Conference champion Trojans (8-0) moved to within one more win of their first perfect regular-season since the start of the playoff era in 1975 and after going only 2-7 a year ago. Alcona (6-2) pulled within a score of the lead multiple times and should be a dangerous playoff team – the Tigers’ losses this season are by a combined three points. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

Also noted:

Boyne City 40, Elk Rapids 10 – The Ramblers (8-0) guaranteed the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders championship will come down to this week’s matchup with undefeated Traverse City St. Francis; Elk Rapids (6-2) can still this week get to seven wins for the first time since 2010.

Gaylord St. Mary 30, Harbor Springs 0 – The Snowbirds (8-0) secured a share of the NMFL Legacy title while sending Harbor Springs (4-4) into second place and hoping for both a split title and an at-large playoff bid.

Whittemore-Prescott 42, Hillman 41 – The Cardinals’ string of 10 straight playoff seasons got additional life as the team moved to 4-4, while Hillman’s streak of 11 straight postseason trips also now will hinge on an at-large bid as the Tigers fell to 4-4.

Oscoda 36, Muskegon Heights Academy 23 – The Owls (5-3) put themselves in position to clinch not only their second playoff berth in three seasons, but also their second over the last 17; Muskegon Heights (3-5) fell out of playoff contention but still has its best record since 2014. 

Southeast & Border

Michigan Center 41, Grass Lake 14

The Cascades Conference ended with three teams sharing the championship, and Michigan Center joined Addison and Napoleon among the celebrators by downing reigning league title winner Grass Lake (4-4). The Cardinals also beat Grass Lake in 2016, but the Warriors were able to win the conference last year with that one defeat. The Cardinals (7-1) have their most wins since 2013 and one more than a year ago heading into this week’s crossover with Big 8 Conference champion Reading.

Also noted:

Adrian Lenawee Christian 21, Athens 20 (OT) – This was something of an undercard in the Southern Central Athletic Association, but key for both teams as Lenawee Christian (6-2) secured a playoff berth and forced Athens (5-3) to now beat Climax-Scotts this week if it is to make the postseason for the first time since 2000.

Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 16, Detroit U-D Jesuit 14 – After falling to Dearborn Divine Child by a point in Week 7, the Fighting Irish (7-1) pulled out the close victory over a U-D Jesuit team that at 3-5 has four losses by 10 points or fewer.

Hillsdale 27, Ida 8 – The Hornets (4-4) kept themselves in the playoff hunt while dealing the Lenawee County Athletic Association race an unexpected shuffle; Ida was tied for first with Hudson and looking good to share the title, but now the Tigers can clinch it outright this week.

Ypsilanti Lincoln 23, Temperance Bedford 19 – After two straight four-win seasons and two losses to start this one, Lincoln (6-2) is headed back to the playoffs while Bedford (6-2) already had secured a second straight berth. 

Southwest Corridor

Mendon 34, Cassopolis 24

Mendon (8-0) never really went away, but is looking more and more like the dominant teams that won at least 10 games eight straight seasons from 2007-14. Beating Cassopolis (7-1) cemented that observation, as both teams were undefeated heading into the weekend and a share of the Southwest 10 Conference title was on the line. Mendon had fallen to Cassopolis the last two seasons. Even after giving up 24 points to the Rangers, the Hornets still have allowed just 45 over eight games this fall. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

Also noted:

Pittsford 28, Climax-Scotts 14 – The Wildcats (7-1) clinched the Southern Central Athletic Association title outright by breaking an 11-game losing streak, including playoffs, to the rival Panthers (6-2).

Ottawa Lake Whiteford 52, Clinton 21 – The Bobcats (8-0) clinched a share of the Tri-County Conference title while sending Clinton (5-3) from a second-place tie into third and needing a win this week to make the playoffs for the sixth straight season.

Edwardsburg 54, Vicksburg 27 – This took the Wolverine B Conference race from three first-place teams down to two with a game to play and Edwardsburg (7-1) sure to watch closely as Vicksburg (6-2) takes on co-leader Three Rivers this week.

Watervliet 36, Schoolcraft 14 – Watervliet (8-0) secured a Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley title even as second-place Schoolcraft (5-3) became the first this season to hold the Panthers to fewer than 50 points. 

Upper Peninsula

Iron River West Iron County 30, Hancock 13

For the second straight season Hancock has been a contender in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, but the Wykons (7-1) are again the team to beat. West Iron clinched the league title outright with its sixth straight win over the Bulldogs, who also tied for second in the league last season behind champion Calumet. Hancock (6-2) remains a win better than a year ago with its most victories since 2006, while West Iron can get to eight wins this week for the first time since 2014. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Also noted:

Kingsford 42, Menominee 21 – The Flivvers (6-1) did their part to turn this week’s meeting with Escanaba into a Great Northern Conference championship game as both are undefeated in the league; Kingsford hadn’t beaten Menominee (5-3) since 2012.

Marquette 35, Negaunee 19 – The Redmen (4-4) have a chance at an at-large playoff bid still if they can beat Menominee this weekend, and regardless have as many wins this fall as the last two seasons combined; Negaunee must beat Ishpeming Westwood this weekend to have a chance at extending its five-season playoff streak.

Norway 21, Lake Linden-Hubbell 11 – The Knights (7-1) secured a shared Mid-Eastern Conference title with Newberry; the Lakes (3-4) face winless Manistique this week with a chance still at an at-large playoff bid.

Calumet 30, Bessemer Gogebic – The Miners (3-5) had upset the playoff chances of two hopefuls two weeks in a row, but Calumet (5-3) hung on to earn a chance to clinch a spot this week. 

West Michigan

Grand Rapids Catholic Central 35, Grand Rapids West Catholic 33

Of course it’s rare to have a pair of reigning MHSAA champions meet with a league title on the line. And this time there even was a little revenge to be had. Last year’s Division 4 title winner GRCC (8-0) claimed its second straight game this month by seven points or fewer to clinch a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue title. The Cougars moved into the Blue last season and finished second to eventual Division 5 champion West Catholic (6-2), which handed GRCC its only loss last season. The Falcons scored late this time to pull within two, but could get no closer. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted: 

Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 35, Cedar Springs 20 – The Rangers (8-0) finished a perfect run through the O-K White by handing second-place Cedar Springs (5-3) its first league loss in what also ended up Forest Hills Central’s closest league game. 

Muskegon 35, Muskegon Mona Shores 24 – Ladarius Jefferson ran 34 times for 285 yards and four touchdowns as the Big Reds (8-0) earned a share of the O-K Black title by downing rival Mona Shores (7-1) for the third time in a row.

Rockford 24, East Kentwood 10 – The Rams (5-3) have a chance to make it to the playoffs for the 23rd straight season thanks to this bounce-back win over the Falcons (5-3), who also can earn an automatic berth this week.

Wyoming Kelloggsville 27, Belding 3 – The Rockets (8-0) faced what have ended up the second, third and fourth-best teams in the O-K Silver three weeks in a row and claimed a share of the league title by knocking Belding (6-2) out of their tie for first.

8-Player

Central Lake 42, Onekama 28

As noted in Friday’s preview, these two both could end up in MHSAA Finals at the Superior Dome, but Central Lake has claimed the first of their possible championships this fall with this win deciding the Midwest Central Michigan Conference title. New to 8-player this season, the Trojans (8-0) were 2-7 last season in 11-player and last won a league title in 2008. Onekama moved to 7-1 after going 6-4 in 11-player last season. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle. 

Also noted:

Pickford 47, Cedarville 8 – Pickford (8-0) claimed a share of the Bridge Alliance championship after finishing second last season and while dealing Cedarville (6-2) a second straight defeat.

Mayville 46, Bay City All Saints 34 – Mayville (5-3) can’t win the North Central Thumb League Stars championship, but dealt a loss to the Stripes’ co-leading Cougars (6-2).

Powers North Central 36, Rapid River 0 – Just when it looked like reigning MHSAA champion North Central (5-2) might go quietly into the offseason, the Jets stunned the state’s 8-player scene handing Western Eight Conference leader Rapid River (7-1) its first defeat a week after the Rockets handed a first loss to Stephenson.

Portland St. Patrick 24, Marion 8 – The Shamrocks (7-1) are playing in a two-team league but now also have a win over Marion (6-2), which ran the table in the West Michigan Conference.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Farmington Hills Harrison coach John Herrington enjoys the postgame fanfare with his team after setting the MHSAA record with his 431st career victory. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)