Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
QB Follows Mentors in Leading Montague
October 4, 2017
By Tom Kendra
Special for Second Half
Sebastian Archer didn’t have to look far to find role models as Montague’s starting quarterback.
Pat Collins, Montague’s 14th-year head coach, was the quarterback who first brought the Wildcats to the promised land, culminating a dream season at the Pontiac Silverdome with a 12-7 loss to powerhouse Detroit dePorres in the 1992 Class CC championship game.
Cody Kater, now the Wildcats’ quarterbacks coach, took it a step further and led Montague to back-to-back Division 6 titles with wins over Leslie (41-20) in 2008 and Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (24-21) in 2009.
“I’m pretty lucky that I get to learn from both of them every day,” said Archer, a 5-foot-9, 175-pound junior who is off to an impressive start, following in the footsteps of recent Montague quarterbacks Jacob Buchberger and Dylan Stever. “They push me pretty hard, but I know it’s only to make me better.”
Archer will try to glean all he can from Collins and Kater this week, as the 6-0 Wildcats (ranked No. 3 in Division 6 by The Associated Press) prepare to host 5-1 Muskegon Oakridge (ranked No. 6 in Division 5) in a key battle for the West Michigan Conference championship and playoff seeding.
Montague has bolted to its 6-0 start behind one of the highest-scoring offenses in the state, averaging 57 points per game. Collins said the key for his team to stay unbeaten with a grueling final three games against Oakridge, Ravenna and then Montague’s first-ever meeting against unbeaten and four-time reigning Division 8 champion Muskegon Catholic Central, is for Archer to continue his dynamic play while taking care of the ball. Archer has thrown for 945 yards, 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
“Sebastian distributes the ball well and makes good decisions,” Collins said. “We anticipated having a good team this year and hoped to be in the position where we are right now, but this is where things get really tough and we’ll see what we’re made of.”
While Archer is continuing the Montague tradition of strong quarterback play, he is a completely different style of QB than his two mentors.
Collins engineered the tightly-packed, wing-T offense during his playing days, which usually meant about one or two passes per game.
Kater was more of a prototypical pocket passer, standing 6-4 and throwing 79 touchdown passes over his career. Kater played college quarterback at University of Cincinnati, Grand Rapids Community College and finally Central Michigan. He worked his way up to the starting job for the Chippewas as a junior, but broke his collarbone in the first quarter of CMU’s 2013 season-opening game against Michigan in “The Big House.”
Archer, meanwhile, is described by Collins as more of a “point guard” on the football field.
“He is definitely a dual threat,” Collins said. “Like a good point guard, he is capable of taking it into his own hands if need be. But first and foremost, he’s looking to get our other guys involved.”
That supporting cast, many like Archer part of Montague’s loaded junior class, has been stellar through the first two-thirds of the season.
Bryce Stark is explosive out of the backfield, rushing for 625 yards and 13 touchdowns this fall. Kenyan Johnston is the team’s most prolific receiver, highlighted by his nine catches for 129 yards and two touchdowns in a thrilling 46-44 win at rival Whitehall on Sept. 22. The main downfield threat is burner Jake Jancek.
For the past 40 years, the road to the WMC title has gone through Oakridge, a perennial playoff team which has qualified for the postseason 21 of the past 22 years and won MHSAA championships in 1997, 2005 and 2008. The main rival for Oakridge for many years, particularly the 1990s, was Ravenna, but since the turn of the century the biggest challenges have come from the White Lake area duo of Whitehall and, especially, Montague.
Montague edged Oakridge 29-26 two years ago and led 28-14 last year at Oakridge before the Eagles rallied for a 31-28 win.
Archer expects another classic game.
“I can’t wait for Friday night,” said Archer, who, in addition to his quarterback duties, starts at safety and punter and hold on kicks. “It will probably be like the Whitehall game where the stands are full and people are sitting on the grass. Those are the games we love to play in.”
Part of the reason for the year-in, year-out success at Montague and Oakridge is coaching stability. Montague has had just two head coaches in the past 32 years, with Ken Diamond coaching from 1986-2003 and Collins from 2004 to present. Oakridge has had an even longer stretch with just two head coaches, led by Jack Schugars from 1979 to 2010 and now Harger from 2011 to present.
Montague has made the playoffs in 12 of 13 seasons under Collins, with the back-to-back championships in 2008 and 2009 capping an amazing stretch which saw the Wildcats make it at least to the Semifinals five straight years from 2005 to 2009.
Getting back to that elite level is what motivates Archer to come in to “Camp Kater” on Monday and Friday mornings before school. Kater emphasizes building up arm strength on Mondays, and switches the focus to pocket awareness on Fridays. Those sessions have transformed Archer from a running back playing quarterback to a well-rounded QB, Collins said.
Archer grew up idolizing Kater in small-town Montague, but he lists his favorite professional quarterbacks as Tom Brady and Doug Flutie, the 5-10 quarterback who was an inspiration to little guys everywhere. Flutie retired in 2005 when Archer was just 4 years old.
“The roster lists me as 5-9, but I’m 5-7; I’m not gonna lie to you,” said Archer, who also plays basketball and baseball for Montague. “I’ve watched old films of Flutie, and I love how he found a way to make things happen even though he was a little guy. That’s what I try to do.”
Tom Kendra worked 23 years at The Muskegon Chronicle, including five as assistant sports editor and the final six as sports editor through 2011. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Lake, Oceola, Mecosta and Newaygo counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Montague junior quarterback Sebastian Archer, a true dual-threat for the unbeaten Wildcats, looks for running room Sept. 22 during his team's 46-44 victory over rival Whitehall. (Middle) Archer tries to throw over 6-4 Whitehall defensive end Brandon Rake; Archer completed 14 of 20 passes for 217 yards, four TDs and no interceptions in the win. (Below) Montague coach Pat Collins played quarterback for the Wildcats in the early 1990s, leading them to the Class CC championship game in 1992. Collins, now in his 14th year, has a 121-38 record at Montague, highlighted by back-to-back MHSAA titles in 2008 and 2009. (Photos by Tim Reilly.)