Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 5 Preview
September 21, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Big things are ahead in Michigan high school football.
Not much will be decided this week as we cruise into the midpoint of the regular season. But teams all over Michigan are setting the foundations to celebrate soon – either as league champions or playoff qualifiers (and AuGres-Sims, 4-0 and playing eight games this season, can become our first this weekend).
Below is our weekly look at the games that appear most intriguing from every region of the state, powered by MI Student Aid. Keep these links handy for the weekend: MHSAA Score Center for scores as they come in (and links to each team’s schedule, league standings and playoff-points average), and MHSAA.tv, which again will broadcast nine games this weekend – click here for the schedule.
Bay & Thumb
New Lothrop (4-0) at Flint Hamady (3-1), Friday
The Genesee Area Conference Blue was decided last season by New Lothrop’s 51-16 Week 4 win over Hamady, and this matchup could be the eventual clincher again. The Hornets have now won 65 of their last 66 regular-season games going back to the start of 2010, and they haven’t given up a point this fall since downing GAC Red leader Lake Fenton in Week 1. But Hamady has held its last three opponents to single-digit scoring since losing to still-undefeated Cass City on opening night, signaling this might be closer than last year’s meeting.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Byron (3-1) at Lake Fenton (3-1), Midland (3-1) at Bay City Central (3-1), Flint Beecher (2-2) at Saginaw Nouvel (4-0), Harbor Beach (3-1) at Sandusky (2-2).
Greater Detroit
Birmingham Groves (3-1) at Farmington Hills Harrison (3-1), Friday
After falling to Oakland Activities Association White co-leader Oak Park last week, Groves has one more chance to mix up the top of the standings as it hopes to repeat as the league champion – this time likely sharing the title. Harrison is the other team currently in first, and longtime coach John Herrington is just two wins from tying retired Birmingham Brother Rice coach Al Fracassa for most wins (430) in MHSAA football history. A victory tonight for the Hawks could make Week 7 versus Oak Park the first opportunity for Herrington to break the record.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Utica Eisenhower (4-0) at Romeo (3-1), Clinton Township Clintondale (4-0) at Hazel Park (3-1), Marine City (4-0) at Madison Heights Madison (4-0), West Bloomfield (2-2) at Rochester Adams (4-0).
Mid-Michigan
Portland (3-1) at Lansing Catholic (4-0), Friday
The Cougars kept this rivalry game as a potential league title decider by surviving a one-point game against Williamston last week. Portland won the last two Capital Area Activities Conference White titles after handing Lansing Catholic its lone league loss both seasons. Both teams are led by dynamic quarterbacks again – Michael Lynn III for Lansing Catholic and Austin Allison for Portland – and both also are giving up only 15 points per game.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Okemos (4-0) at Grand Ledge (3-1), Montrose (3-1) at Corunna (3-1), Clare (3-1) at Harrison (3-1), Fulton (3-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (3-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Grayling (4-0) at Boyne City (4-0), Friday
The Northern Michigan Football League’s Legends division is again loaded, with three undefeated teams and two more at 3-1 out of seven teams total. This matchup should help break up some of the top pack. These two and two-time reigning champion Traverse City St. Francis are the co-leaders, after St. Francis downed Boyne City in Week 9 last year to secure the title. Grayling’s last league title came in 2013 in the old Lake Michigan Conference and Boyne won the Legends in 2014 – making it hardly surprising they’re among those battling the Gladiators again. Grayling gets St. Francis next week; Boyne City has its shot in Week 9.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Frankfort (3-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-1), Beal City (3-1) at Lake City (4-0), Whittemore-Prescott (2-2) at Lincoln Alcona (3-1), SATURDAY Gaylord (2-2) at Traverse City Central (2-2).
Southeast & Border
Michigan Center (3-1) at Addison (4-0), Friday
Addison’s best start since 2006 has made the Cascades Conference race one of the most intriguing of the first half of the regular season. Last season’s co-champions, Grass Lake and Napoleon, remain in the mix, but Addison’s two-point win over Napoleon last week put the Panthers in first place alone. After six straight sub-.500 seasons, Addison is a win from breaking that streak. Michigan Center, meanwhile, is one of three teams tied for second in the league and only a three-point loss to Napoleon in Week 3 from being tied for first.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Adrian (3-1) at Chelsea (3-1), Quincy (3-1) at Reading (3-1), Homer (3-1) at Springport (2-2), SATURDAY Temperance Bedford (3-1) at Ann Arbor Pioneer (2-2).
Southwest Corridor
Kalamazoo Hackett (4-0) at Watervliet (4-0), Friday
The Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley is another league that has enjoyed a great nonconference run – five teams are 3-1 or 4-0, and the sixth is 2-2. Watervliet has won or shared its league’s championship six straight seasons and is on pace to break 500 points offensively for the third straight year. Hackett’s path has been different – the four wins this fall tie their most in nine of the last 10 seasons. But the Fighting Irish clearly are up to the challenge this year – and both will have to be up to the challenges of Constantine, Coloma, Delton Kellogg and new league foe Schoolcraft over the next five weeks.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY White Pigeon (3-1) at Mendon (4-0), Athens (4-0) at Climax-Scotts (3-1), St. Joseph (3-1) at Mattawan (3-1), Three Rivers (3-1) at Paw Paw (3-1).
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris (3-1) at Norway (4-0), Friday
The Mid-Eastern Conference continues to produce some of the U.P.’s top matchups every week, and this one again could go far in figuring out the eventual champion. Norway is the only one of five teams that hasn’t played a league game; it’s also the only one undefeated and has the highest playoff-point average of the five. Bark River-Harris’ loss came to current M-EC leader Newberry; the Broncos interestingly have wins over teams from multiple states – Wisconsin and Illinois – a rarity on either peninsula.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Hancock (3-1) at Calumet (3-1), Gladstone (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-2), Negaunee (1-3) at Gwinn (2-2), Newberry (3-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (0-3).
West Michigan
Grandville (3-1) at East Kentwood (4-0), Friday
The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red easily could be headed for another split title – three teams shared last year, two in 2015 and 2014. And there appear to be four contenders again – these two obviously included. Grandville was one of those three champs a year ago, and minus a painful defeat to Warren DeLaSalle has given up only 27 points over its three wins. The Falcons have been nearly as stellar on that side of the ball, shutting out reigning Division 3 champion Orchard Lake St. Mary’s in Week 2 and despite giving up 32 last week to Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (which is averaging 30 per game).
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Cedar Springs (3-1) at Grand Rapids Christian (4-0), Coopersvile (3-1) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (3-1), Grant (3-1) at Remus Chippewa Hills (3-1), Montague (4-0) at Whitehall (3-1).
8-Player
Morrice (4-0) at Flint International Academy (4-0), Friday
Similar to last season, no one has slowed down Deckerville yet. But the winner of this game will have the most meaningful chance. All three are 3-0 in the North Central Thumb League Stars division, Morrice bouncing back from a 4-5 finish last season and Flint International picking right back up after going 6-3 in its first season of 8-player football in 2016. The Flames already have put up 190 points, more than half their total over nine games a year ago. They’ll face a great challenge in a Morrice defense that is giving up 4.5 points per game – a rarity in this high-scoring, wide-open format.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rudyard (3-1) at Brimley (3-1), North Adams-Jerome (2-2) at Camden-Frontier (4-0), Lawrence (3-1) at Kingston (2-2), Onekama (4-0) at Suttons Bay (3-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Bark River-Harris, right, will take on Norway in this weekend’s most intriguing game in the Upper Peninsula. (Photo by Jeff Rochefort.)