Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 Preview
September 14, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This is the time of year, every year, when we begin to notice the start of separation among the fast starters and truly elite teams in Michigan high school football.
There are 122 teams (of 617 total) without a loss as the regular season creeps toward the midway point. And that number will go down by at least a few this weekend as a number of league races also take a turn with undefeated contenders facing off.
This week’s Drive for Detroit preview powered by MI Student Aid features three of those matchups and mentions a half-dozen more. Remember to stay with us Friday night and into Saturday for scores as they come in on the MHSAA Score Center, and click on teams off that page for updated standings and playoff points. MHSAA.tv will broadcast nine games across both peninsulas this weekend – click here for the schedule. All games below will be played Friday.
Bay & Thumb
Linden (3-0) at Fenton (3-0)
Fenton has claimed outright Flint Metro League titles by defeating Linden in the regular-season finale the last three seasons – wins by the Eagles in 2014 and 2016 would’ve meant a shared championship – but this fall the meeting comes in the heart of the league schedule. Linden has handed lone losses this season to both Flushing and Holly, and Fenton did the same to Ortonville Brandon – giving this the feeling of a few-weeks-early championship game again.
Others that caught my eye: Lake Fenton (2-1) at Goodrich (3-0), Marysville (2-1) at Marine City (3-0), Freeland (3-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (2-1), Houghton Lake (2-1) at Beaverton (3-0).
Greater Detroit
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (3-0) at Dearborn Divine Child (3-0)
Cranbrook Kingswood has experienced an upswing in football since longtime Detroit Country Day coach Joe D’Angelo took over in 2013. Coming off three straight playoff seasons, the Cranes have opened by outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 114-7 – and two of those teams also made the playoffs last fall. Divine Child has been similarly strong against a similar group of teams and has Big Ten-committed prospects on both sides of the ball (QB/S Theo Day – Michigan State, DE/TE Aidan Hutchinson – Michigan) as it continues to build of last season’s Division 3 Semifinal run.
Others that caught my eye: Warren Mott (3-0) at Macomb Dakota (2-1), Detroit Central (2-1) at Detroit Renaissance (3-0), Clarkston (3-0) at West Bloomfield (1-2), Waterford Mott (2-1) at Walled Lake Western (3-0).
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge (2-1) at Lansing Sexton (3-0)
Grand Ledge and DeWitt were considered the unquestioned elite in the Lansing area heading into this season. Then the Panthers downed the Comets 14-7 in Week 2 to rise to the top of the list. But Sexton is building a solid argument as well giving up only 21 points so far and after handing Portland its first regular-season loss since 2014. Another victory tonight would put the Big Reds firmly in the discussion; the winner regardless will take a significant step toward the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title.
Others that caught my eye: Vermontville Maple Valley (3-0) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (3-0), Lansing Catholic (3-0) at Williamston (2-1), Perry (2-1) at Olivet (3-0), Fulton (2-1) at Fowler (2-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Lincoln Alcona (3-0) at AuGres-Sims (3-0)
It’s hard to remember that 11-year span at the start of this century when Alcona didn’t make the playoffs once; the Tigers have qualified four of the last five seasons and are well on their way again with two wins this fall over playoff teams from a year ago. AuGres-Sims started what it hopes is a similar bounce-back going 7-3 last year despite falling to Alcona 58-20. If like opponents mean anything – they have two so far in 2017 – tonight’s game should be a lot closer than that last meeting and could end up deciding the North Star League title.
Others that caught my eye: Whittemore-Prescott (2-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (3-0), Evart (2-1) at McBain (2-1), Johannesburg-Lewiston (2-1) at Charlevoix (1-2), Kalkaska (3-0) at Elk Rapids (2-1).
Southeast & Border
Ypsilanti Community (2-1) at Adrian (2-1)
Once an annual power, we didn’t talk about Adrian for a few seasons until the Maples ended a string of four sub-.500 finishes by winning a District title last fall. They fell in an odd one, 11-7, last weekend after the power went out Friday and they had to resume Sunday morning. Ypsilanti Community also fell last week, to Pinckney, but has equaled last season’s win total and shut out Tecumseh on opening night.
Others that caught my eye: Dundee (2-1) at Hudson (3-0), Brooklyn Columbia Central (2-1) at Ida (3-0), Chelsea (2-1) at Tecumseh (2-1), Addison (3-0) at Napoleon (2-1)
Southwest Corridor
Stevensville Lakeshore (3-0) at St. Joseph (3-0)
Last week Lakeshore/Portage Central was the big game in the southwest part of the state, and following a 24-7 win the Lancers are headlining again as they face their other annual main competition in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West. Lakeshore has beaten St. Joseph in four straight. But the Bears have been tough defensively and can rely on running back Ryan Haynes, who has piled up more than 400 yards on the ground.
Others that caught my eye: Union City (3-0) at Quincy (3-0), Dowagiac (2-1) at Edwardsburg (3-0), Traverse City Central (2-1) at Portage Central (2-1), St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (3-0) at Parchment (2-1).
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming Westwood (3-0) at Gladstone (3-0)
Like Lakeshore above, Westwood finds itself in the top spot for as second straight week after downing previously undefeated L’Anse 38-10 to eclipse its win total from a year ago. The Patriots also handed Munising its lone loss this season, but the toughest competition so far should come from Gladstone – which switched to the Mid-Peninsula Conference this season after battling the biggest in the U.P. in the Great Northern Conference for more than two decades. Last week’s 43-0 win over Negaunee gave the Braves as many wins as they had all of last season and as many as they’ve had in any season since 2010.
Others that caught my eye: Marquette (1-2) at Escanaba (2-1), Munising (2-1) at Newberry (2-1), Gwinn (2-1) at Norway (3-0), Hancock (3-0) at L'Anse (2-1).
West Michigan
Muskegon (3-0) at Byron Center (3-0)
The Grand Rapids and Muskegon areas are loaded with outstanding matchups this weekend – see the others mentioned below – but this gets top billing because of Byron Center’s opportunity. Muskegon is a state power and came within minutes of winning the Division 3 title last year. But the Bulldogs finished 10-2 – earning their most wins since 2000 – with both losses to the Big Reds, in Week 4 and again in a Division 3 Regional Final.
Others that caught my eye: Grand Rapids Christian (3-0) at Grand Rapids South Christian (3-0), Zeeland East (3-0) at Holland (3-0), Whitehall (2-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (3-0), Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (3-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (3-0).
8-Player
Bellevue (3-0) at Portland St. Patrick (3-0)
The Broncos moved into 8-player this season coming off two straight 3-5 finishes and one win in 2014. So far, it’s a perfect fit. Bellevue’s start has been nearly perfect defensively – it’s outscored its first three opponents by a combined 146-6. St. Patrick has a lot more experience in the 8-player format – the Shamrocks twice have come within a win or two of the MHSAA championship game since making the move in 2012. They’re coming off a 38-22 win over rival Webberville, which Bellevue beat 40-6 on opening night.
Others that caught my eye: Ontonagon (2-0) at Rapid River (3-0), Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (2-1) at Onekama (3-0), Deckerville (3-0) at Kingston (2-1), New Haven Merritt (2-1) at Bay City All Saints (2-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Grand Ledge quarterback Nolan Bird targets a receiver during his team’s 14-7 loss to DeWitt in Week 2. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)