Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 11, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There are a handful of significant turning points every Michigan high school football season – and Week 3 always proves to be the first.
There are 106 11-player and 12 8-player teams statewide celebrating 3-0 starts, including a good share enjoying big-time turnarounds from a year ago. There also are 117 11-player teams – including a handful of notable powers – that have opened 0-3 and find themselves starting their personal playoffs six weeks earlier than usual as they now must win out to guarantee a spot in the postseason.
Our look back at Week 3 tells how some of those teams got there, plus hits on a few rivalry streaks now broken and more shaking up among the 8-player elite.
Bay & Thumb
Flushing 26, Detroit Country Day 19 (OT)
Flushing’s season – and decade – got a massive boost with this upset of last season’s Division 4 runner-up. The Raiders are coming off consecutive 4-5 finishes and have only one winning season over the last six (going 9-3 in 2014). But they’re 2-1 this fall after jumping out to a 13-0 lead Friday, seeing it dissolve, but then rising again in overtime. Country Day (2-1) didn’t lose in the regular season last year and had lost only one regular-season game going back to the start of 2015.
Also noted:
Bay City Central 35, Flint Powers Catholic 28 – For the second straight week Central (2-1) pulled off a nail-biter in the Saginaw Valley League Red, handing Powers (2-1) its first loss.
Cass City 54, Brown City 30 – The Red Hawks (3-0) are halfway to a fourth straight playoff berth, and this time they’ve put up more than 50 points twice with 138 their most three games in since 2006.
Richmond 35, Croswell-Lexington 28 – This one definitely could’ve tripped up the Blue Devils (3-0) as they go for a third straight Blue Water Area Conference title; Croswell-Lexington (2-1) can stay in the mix with wins over the next two weeks again also-contenders Almont and Algonac.
Davison 40, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 13 – Davison (3-0) is rolling on offense again with a second 50-point game this season over a 2016 playoff team; Carman-Ainsworth has its work cut out after falling to 1-2.
Greater Detroit
Clarkston 34, Bloomfield Hills 20
The Wolves are 3-0 against teams that went a combined 24-8 last season, with reigning Oakland Activities Association Blue champion Bloomfield Hills the most recent to fall. The teams traded scores most of the game and the Black Hawks (2-1) led early in the fourth quarter before Clarkston scored 21 unanswered points. Bloomfield Hills moved this season into the OAA Red, where Clarkston is the reigning co-champion. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Detroit Denby 12, Detroit Central 6 – Denby (2-0) got off to a slow start with no Week 1 game, but has caught up quickly handing another 2016 playoff team Central (2-1) its first loss.
Livonia Stevenson 20, Livonia Churchill 9 – These neighbors have now split their last 10, with Stevenson (2-0) claiming the last two while handing Churchill (2-1) its first loss for the second straight season.
Riverview 34, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 7 – The Pirates (2-1) downed SMCC for the first time since 2011, in the process equaling their win total from last year and putting the Falcons (1-2) down two games in Huron League play.
New Boston Huron 31, Carleton Airport 30 – Sticking in the Huron, New Boston Huron is 3-0 for the first time since 1970, according to Michigan-football.com, after Austin Atherton’s late 36-yard field goal got the Chiefs past Airport (2-1).
Mid-Michigan
Haslett 28, St. Johns 24
These teams are regulars in the chase after DeWitt in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red. Although this was a league opener, it would seem to indicate Haslett (2-1) is back as the top competition for the Panthers in the latter’s final season before moving into the CAAC Blue. The teams traded scores throughout the second and third quarters, but the Vikings held St. Johns (1-2) scoreless over the final 18 minutes. Both of the Redwings’ losses this fall are by four points or fewer. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Belding 21, Hopkins 20 – The Black Knights (2-1) bounced back from a one-point Week 2 loss to Lake Odessa Lakewood to win a close one over Hopkins (1-2).
Holt 29, Jackson 27 – The Rams (1-2) didn’t let losses to Grandville and Hudsonville derail their season, edging Jackson (0-3) thanks to 265 yards and four touchdowns on 51 carries by Troy Jordan.
Portland 21, Williamston 14 – The Raiders (2-1) made it six wins in their last seven against the CAAC White rival Hornets (2-1), bouncing back this time from a Week 2 loss to Lansing Sexton.
Fowler 14, Bath 7 – A rare loss last week to Saranac could’ve knocked Fowler (2-1) off course, but the Eagles instead avenged last season’s loss to the Bees (2-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City West 29, Traverse City Central 27
After five straight meetings between these neighbors decided by seven points or fewer, the latest didn’t disappoint. West looked to break away multiple times during the second half, but Central (2-1) continued to answer before the Titans finally put away the “Patriot Game” victory by securing an onside kick attempt in the final minute. The Trojans had won the last four matchups between the two – including by two points during the regular season and one in the playoffs in 2016. West is 3-0 for the first time since 2004. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Petoskey 34, Cadillac 19 – Last season’s one-win finish is becoming a distant memory for Petoskey (2-1), which not only doubled its win total from 2016 in Week 3 but tied its highest scoring performance from all of last season in getting past Cadillac (1-2).
Lake City 28, McBain 8 – Lake City (3-0) has rumbled back into the mix after winning only two games last season and losing three straight to Highland Conference foe McBain (2-1).
Evart 15, Leroy Pine River 7 – The Wildcats (2-1) have ridden last season’s upswing into this fall, downing 2016 Division 6 semifinalist Pine River (0-3) for the first time since 2013.
Manistee 42, Ludington 28 – The Chippewas (1-2) got on the board by avenging last season’s loss to Ludington (2-1) and after losing their first two games this season by a combined 14 points.
Southeast & Border
Ypsilanti Lincoln 26, Chelsea 14
A pair of 20-point losses to Chelsea contributed to Lincoln’s back-to-back 4-5 finishes the last two seasons. Getting one back couldn’t have come at a better time. The Railsplitters (1-2) fell to Pinckney by nine on opening night and one to Tecumseh a week ago, but now can enjoy some confidence picked up by handing the Bulldogs (2-1) their first regular-season loss since Week 7 in 2015. Chelsea had beaten Pinckney in Week 2 and still should figure into the Southeastern Conference White title chase after winning outright or sharing the championship the last two seasons. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.
Also noted:
Salem 10, Brighton 7 – The Rocks (2-1) are one point this season from a perfect start as they seek their first winning season in 2012, while Brighton (1-2) now has two losses both by three points as they go for a third straight playoff berth.
Reading 52, Homer 38 – The Rangers (2-1) have gone from 3-6 last year to beating two of three reigning co-champions from the Big 8 Conference over the last two weeks, this time handing Homer (2-1) its first loss after an impressive start.
Hudson 48, Brooklyn Columbia Central 21 – The Tigers (3-0) handed Columbia Central (2-1) its first loss to move to 13-2 since the start of 2016.
Napoleon 17, Michigan Center 14 – The Pirates (2-1) are becoming strong favorites to add another Cascades Conference championship after downing the other reigning co-champ, Grass Lake, in Week 2, and edging another likely contender in the Cardinals (2-1) this time.
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Harper Creek 22, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 (OT)
A two-point conversion in overtime gave Harper Creek its second straight win over Lumen Christi – the reigning Division 6 champion – and put the Beavers in nice position in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference after sharing the league title with the Titans in 2016. Harper Creek came back from 14 points down and trailed by a score heading into the fourth quarter. The Beavers went for two after answering Lumen’s TD and extra point to begin overtime. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Watervliet 52, Maple City Glen Lake 26 – The Panthers (3-0) have yet to score fewer than 50 points, and the reigning Division 6 runner-up Lakers (1-2) hadn’t given up that many since 2014.
Stevensville Lakeshore 24, Portage Central 7 – Give the Lancers (3-0) the early upper hand on the Mustangs (2-1) as one of these two has won or shared the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West title the last five seasons.
Battle Creek Central 32, Battle Creek Lakeview 13 – The Bearcats (1-2) downed their rival for the second time in three seasons, especially impressive because Central is seeking its first playoff season since 2008 and Lakeview (1-2) has made the postseason five straight.
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 21, Kalamazoo Central 14 – The Knights (1-2) got their first win since opening night 2015 and first over rival Central (0-3) since 2014.
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone 43, Negaunee 0
Gladstone is 3-0 for the first time since 2014, and the Braves also started 3-0 in 2009. But this opening surge has included outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 129-6 – and shutting out a pair of 2016 playoff teams in Gwinn and now the Miners. Gladstone had lost to Negaunee by 23 in 2016 and 24 in 2015. The Miners, meanwhile, face their toughest path forward since 2000 as they try to make the playoffs for a sixth straight season. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Ishpeming Westwood 38, L’Anse 10 – The Patriots not only are 3-0 after winning two games last season, but they’ve outscored those first three opponents by a combined 98-22; the Purple Hornets (2-1) were the first to reach double digits.
Escanaba 21, Detroit Loyola 20 – The Eskymos (2-1) crossed the bridge and just edged the reigning Division 7 runner-up Bulldogs (0-3).
Fond du Lac, Wis. 49, Menominee 20 – The Maroons (2-1) had only one other regular-season loss (to DeWitt last season) since mid-2012, but Fond du Lac is 3-1 and made the quarterfinals of its Wisconsin division last season.
Iron River West Iron County 35, Iron Mountain 3 – The Wykons (2-1) had lost by 26 and 27 to the rival Mountaineers (0-3) the last two seasons.
West Michigan
East Grand Rapids 16, Lowell 14
East Grand Rapids got ahead by a pair of touchdowns but needed a late field goal by Mark Boeve to finish off what has to be considered its most impressive win this decade. The Pioneers handed the Red Arrows (2-1) their first regular-season defeat since opening night 2015 and first in this series since EGR’s undefeated run in 2010. East Grand Rapids is 3-0 for the second time in three seasons. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Muskegon Mona Shores 30, Rockford 24 (OT) – The Sailors (3-0) evened their recent series with the Rams (1-2) at 2-2 while continuing one of the most impressive starts in the state this fall.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 17, Zeeland West 6 – The Falcons (2-1) avenged last season’s loss to West (1-2) by holding the Dux to their fewest points since a 2014 Division 3 Semifinal defeat.
East Kentwood 24, Hudsonville 17 – The Falcons (3-0) opened the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red schedule with a third win over a 2016 playoff team while dropping Hudsonville to 1-2.
Holland 36, Hudsonville Unity Christian 30 (OT) – The Dutch are 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and after two straight 2-7 finishes; Unity (2-1) had won all five previous meetings since Holland joined the O-K Green.
8-Player
Stephenson 42, Crystal Falls Forest Park 16
Another week, another massive 8-player result from the Upper Peninsula. Forest Park couldn’t celebrate for long breaking Powers North Central’s 27-game winning streak in Week 2, as Stephenson now can stake a claim as the team to chase in a loaded Western Eight Conference. The Eagles (3-0) are joined by Rapid River and Ontonagon among undefeated squads in the league that also includes the Trojans and Jets among others. This win avenged two losses to Forest Park last year, including the second in a playoff opener. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Camden-Frontier 46, Battle Creek St. Philip 14 – The Redskins (3-0) look good to continue rising in their second season of 8-player after beating power St. Philip (2-1) for the second straight time.
Brimley 26, Onaway 25 – The Bays are suddenly 3-0 after not having enough players to field a team in 2016 and going 0-9 in 2015; Onaway fell to 1-2.
Pickford 40, Engadine 22 – Engadine (2-1) has made the playoffs six straight seasons, but Pickford (3-0) now has two straight wins on the Eagles after losing to them last regular season but also beating them by two in a Regional Final.
Ontonagon 32, Powers North Central 30 – The Gladiators (3-0) handed reigning MHSAA champion North Central (1-2) its second straight loss.
PHOTO: A Clarkston ball carrier dives for the end zone during Friday's win over Bloomfield Hills. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)