Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 1 Preview
August 23, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Football remains the most played high school sport in Michigan, not to mention the most popular for fans who fill our stadiums every fall weekend.
Finally, it’s time to start talking about it again – and you’ve come to the right place.
Below is the first of 14 “Drive for Detroit” weekly previews aimed at giving you the most intriguing games in your corner of the state every week through November’s 11-Player Finals at Ford Field.
The original motivation of our weekly football previews has been to give fans a few games they can check out no matter where they live or might be visiting in our great state. For that reason, you’ll see the games at University of Michigan this weekend under “Southeast & Border” although those teams playing don’t necessarily call that part of the state home, and you’ll find the rest listed under regions where the home team is located even if the away team is from far away.
With most of the state’s games this weekend split over Thursday and Friday, we’ve also listed which day all of them below will be played – but check out the MHSAA Score Center for the full schedule plus scores all three nights as they come in.
Be sure to check out as well the list of 19 games airing this weekend on MHSAA.tv, including all three from the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic at Flint’s Atwood Stadium, seven games from the Prep Kickoff Classic at Wayne State University and all four games from Saturday’s GRidiron Classic at Grand Valley State University.
The weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid. Please click the adjacent linked logo and read below for more information on how MI Student Aid is providing Michigan’s high school students with money to help pay for college.
Bay & Thumb
Marysville (10-1) at Richmond (8-2), Thursday
A 38-21 win over the Blue Devils in last season’s opener was the start to Marysville’s best finish since 2000, as the Vikings’ only loss came in a District Final to eventual Division 4 runner-up Detroit Country Day. Richmond still went on to a perfect run through the Blue Water Area Conference and fifth straight playoff berth, and will look to make it three wins in four years over the reigning Macomb Area Conference Gold champ.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Marine City (4-5) at Algonac (11-2), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (6-4) vs. Grand Blanc (5-5) at Atwood Stadium, Lake Fenton (8-2) at New Lothrop (10-2), FRIDAY Unionville-Sebewaing (9-2) at Ubly (12-1).
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota (7-4) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (10-4), Thursday
A host of intriguing games will be played this weekend as part of the Prep Kickoff Classic at Wayne State University; four of them are listed below. But it’s tough again to look past this one. The Cougars won the opener with the Eaglets 35-28 a year ago on the way to a 16th straight playoff appearance. St. Mary’s, meanwhile, rebounded to only win a third straight Division 3 championship with a one-point nail-biter over Muskegon in the season’s final game at Ford Field.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Southfield Arts & Technology (8-4) vs. Davison (10-1) at Wayne State University, Walled Lake Western (12-2) vs. West Bloomfield (6-5) at Wayne State University, SATURDAY Oak Park (7-4) vs. Utica Eisenhower (12-1) at Wayne State University, River Rouge (11-2) vs. Detroit East English (5-4) at Wayne State University.
Mid-Michigan
Hudsonville (8-2) at Grand Ledge (7-3), Thursday
Grand Ledge was considered the Lansing area’s best team for most of last season and will vie for that status again with a senior-loaded squad; more on that next week when the Comets take on another contender in DeWitt. Grand Ledge’s only loss through the first eight games last fall was in the opener 21-14 to Hudsonville, which went on to a fourth straight playoff appearance with losses only to Ottawa-Kent Conference Red rivals Rockford and Grandville.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Haslett (4-5) at Fowlerville (7-3), Battle Creek Pennfield (5-5) at Williamston (5-5), FRIDAY Beal City (7-4) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (5-5), East Lansing (6-4) at St. Johns (5-4).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Roscommon (9-2) at Grayling (7-4), Thursday
The Bucks turned a 20-14 opening-night win over Grayling last year into the start of their best season since 2006, including their first playoff appearance since 2012. The Vikings, meanwhile, continued as one of the most consistent programs in the north, putting together their best record in three seasons and seventh playoff appearance in eight seasons.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Big Rapids (3-6) at Cadillac (6-4), FRIDAY Hillman (5-5) at Gaylord St. Mary (6-4), AuGres-Sims (7-3) at Rogers City (4-5), Lansing Sexton (7-4) at Gaylord (4-5).
Southeast & Border
Rockford (7-4) at Saline (11-1), Thursday
A team-wide illness took the Rams out of this much-anticipated matchup a year ago, but it’s a go this week and with no less expectation. After taking a forfeit loss to start and then falling the following week to Lowell, Rockford strung together six straight wins to make the playoffs for a 21st straight season – tied for longest active streak in the state with Menominee. Saline is coming off a second straight 11-1 finish, and with its 2014 run to the Division 1 Final is a combined 34-4 over the last three seasons. The Yellowjackets might have been the second-best team in Michigan in 2016, falling to eventual Division 1 champion Detroit Cass Tech 43-42 in a Regional Final.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Brighton (7-3) vs. Belleville (7-3) at University of Michigan, Constantine (6-4) at Homer (8-3), FRIDAY Clarkston (9-3) vs. Lapeer (7-3) at University of Michigan, Pewamo-Westphalia (14-0) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (4-5).
Southwest Corridor
Dearborn Divine Child (10-3) at Benton Harbor (10-1), Friday
Its former struggles becoming a distant memory, Benton Harbor has proven to not be a one or even two-year phenomenon. The Tigers once again won’t have an easy go as an independent this fall playing teams from all over the Lower Peninsula and one from Chicago. But they started 10-0 last year before falling by a point in a Division 4 District Final, and expectations are high again despite starting out against a Division 3 semifinalist from a year ago. Divine Child bounced back last fall from a sub-.500 record in 2015 to post its best since 1985. This one will be key for the Falcons as well with their nonleague slate also including playoff regulars East Lansing and Warren DeLaSalle.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Portage Northern (5-5) at Battle Creek Lakeview (6-3), Fennville (3-6) at Schoolcraft (10-1), Marcellus (4-5) at Decatur (4-5), FRIDAY Lawton (8-2) at Watervliet (7-3).
Upper Peninsula
Iron Mountain (8-3) at Ishpeming (3-5), Friday
After Ishpeming’s dominance of the Mid-Peninsula Conference for most of this decade, last year belonged instead to Negaunee and Iron Mountain. The Mountaineers opened 2016 by handing the Hematites their first loss since 2014 and ending Ishpeming’s 27-game regular-season winning streak; Iron Mountain went on to its best overall finish since 2011. But Ishpeming, which hadn’t had a sub-.500 season previously since 2001, surely has been looking forward to starting over against this familiar opponent.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Gladstone (3-6) at Gwinn (6-4), Niagara Northern Elite, Wis. (1-0 this season) at Norway (9-3), SATURDAY Marinette, Wis. (0-1 this season) at Menominee (12-2), Hancock (5-4) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (10-1).
West Michigan
Jackson Lumen Christi (12-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (12-2), Friday
The Grand Rapids area in particular is loaded this weekend with matchups of some of its best against contenders from the Detroit and Lansing areas, including a replay of last season’s Division 4 Final between Grand Rapids Catholic Central and Detroit Country Day. But West Catholic/Lumen Christi wins out by a step this time because both are reigning MHSAA champions – West Catholic in Division 5 for the fourth straight year and Lumen Christi in Division 6. The teams have split openers the last two seasons, as West Catholic won last year’s meeting 30-13 – and the Falcons might be favorites off the bat again returning star quarterback Gaetano Vallone while Lumen Christi graduated 2,000-yard rusher Bo Bell.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Farmington Hills Harrison (5-4) at East Grand Rapids (8-3), DeWitt (10-2) at Grand Rapids Christian (9-2), Hudsonville Unity Christian (10-3) at Allendale (8-3), FRIDAY Detroit Country Day (13-1) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (13-1).
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip (5-4) at Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (11-1), Friday
Tri-unity broke into the playoffs last season for the first time and drove all the way to the 8-Player Semifinals before falling for the first and only time in 2016. So this likely won’t resemble at all the Defenders’ only other matchup with St. Philip, a 68-0 11-player loss in 2008. The Tigers, 8-player runners-up in 2015, lost four of their last five last season to just miss the playoffs – proof of the improving strength of the 8-player field. That said, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they returned to the elite.
Others that caught my eye: THURSDAY Peck (5-4) at Lawrence (8-2), Rudyard (5-4) at Cedarville (6-4), FRIDAY Rapid River (6-4) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-2), Bellaire (3-6) at Pickford (10-2).
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PHOTO: A Montague receiver snags a pass over a Whitehall defender last season. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)