Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Semifinals in Review
November 21, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
After nearly four months, this drive for Detroit is nearly complete.
Sixteen teams remain for this weekend's eight MHSAA 11-Player Finals at Ford Field in Detroit. Below is a glance at how all 16 earned their end-of-season trips, with a number of them frequent visitors to the season's final days.
Division 1
Detroit Catholic Central 17, Romeo 0
The Shamrocks eliminated the reigning Division 1 champion in a matchup of last season’s Regional Final, a 40-29 Romeo win. Detroit Catholic Central (13-0) is on course for its best defensive season since 2011 and a win away from its first undefeated season since 2009. For Romeo (9-4), the loss ends a two-season run that saw the Bulldogs play in their second and third Semifinals ever (and first since 1992) while earning their first MHSAA team title and finishing a combined 22-5. Click for more from the Observer & Eccentric.
Detroit Cass Tech 32, Utica Eisenhower 28
Cass Tech standout receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones caught a 20-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Rodney Hall with only 24 seconds to play to push the Technicians (13-0) ahead of Eisenhower and soon after back into the Division 1 Final for the second straight season and fourth time this decade. The reigning runner-up in this division won its second straight nail-biter after downing Saline by one in the Regional Final, handing Eisenhower (12-1) its first loss after doing the same to the Hornets the week before. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.
Division 2
Walled Lake Western 37, Lowell 34
The Red Arrows (12-1), last season’s Division 2 runners-up, found themselves in a comeback quest for the second week in a row but couldn’t come all the way back in this rematch of a 2015 Semifinal. Walled Lake Western (12-1) led 31-14 at halftime and held Lowell off for the final 7:46 to advance to its first championship game since 1999. The Warriors had lost to Lowell 49-34 in the meeting a year ago. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Detroit Martin Luther King 14, Birmingham Groves 7
King earned a chance to repeat as Division 2 champion with a defensive stand after heading into halftime up 14-0. The Crusaders (11-2) hadn’t scored fewer than 18 points since Week 1 of 2015, but were able to ride out the final two quarters relying on a defense that has given up only 35 points over four playoff games. Groves finished its first Semifinal run 11-2, setting a program record for wins for the second straight season after finishing 10-1 in 2015. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Division 3
Muskegon 19, Edwardsburg 8
This defensive standoff saw both teams easily score their fewest points this season – but Muskegon advance to its fourth championship game in five years while keeping Edwardsburg from advancing to the MHSAA Finals for the first time. The Big Reds (12-1) increased their school record points total to 653 and locked down an Eddies team that hadn’t scored fewer than 30. Edwardsburg finished 12-1, setting a program record for victories in one season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 49, Dearborn Divine Child 7
St. Mary’s will play for its third straight Division 3 championship and in its seventh MHSAA Final over the last eight seasons. Divine Child (10-3) was one of the surprises of the playoffs and finished with its most wins since 1985, but couldn’t come back after the Eaglets scored three times during the first quarter and three more times during the second. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 31, Hudsonville Unity Christian 3
The Cougars (12-1) will play for a championship for the first time since 2010 after ending Unity Christian’s longest playoff run with another impressive defensive performance. GRCC has given up 10 points total over four playoff games and with Grand Rapids West Catholic in Division 5 gives the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue two finalists this weekend. Unity Christian finished 10-3, two wins better than any season since the program began in 2003. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Detroit Country Day 20, River Rouge 14
After two straight Semifinal misses, Country Day will play in its second championship game in five seasons after eliminating last year’s Division 5 runner-up. River Rouge (11-2) held the Yellowjackets to their fewest points since opening night, but also scored its fewest since a 2014 Regional Final loss. Country Day (13-0) didn’t score during the second half, but Rouge didn't find the end zone again after scoring on its first possession of the third quarter. Click for more from State Champs! Sports Network.
Division 5
Menominee 23, Frankenmuth 20
Sam Larsen’s 1-yard touchdown blast up the middle with 9:27 to play stood as the winning points in a back-and-forth contest at the Superior Dome. Playing in its seventh Semifinal over the last 11 seasons, Menominee (12-1) earned its fourth championship game of this run and first since 2013. Frankenmuth (11-2) gave the Maroons their second-closest game of this season – the other was a loss to DeWitt in Week 8 – and tied its school record for wins with the most since the program’s last Semifinal run in 1997. Click for more from the Marinette (Wis.) Eagle Herald.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 17, Algonac 0
Reigning Division 5 champion West Catholic (11-2) completed an impressive even if not altogether unexpected run through three road games and a neutral-site semi to return to Ford Field. Defense has been the story for the Falcons this season, and they added a shutout after holding their first three playoff opponents to a combined 20 points. Algonac, in its first Semifinal appearance, held West Catholic to the latter’s second fewest points this season. But the Muskrats (11-2) failed to get on the board for the first time since Week 3 of 2014. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake 34, Leroy Pine River 20
Glen Lake’s earned it first trip to the Finals in football since 1996 on the success of a run game that was able to navigate the snowy conditions at Thirlby Field in Traverse City. Pine River (9-4), playing in its first Semifinal, had given up only 33 points total over the first three playoff games. Glen Lake (11-2), with the win, tied for its most in a season also since that 1996 run. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Jackson Lumen Christi 27, Millington 7
Lumen Christi (11-2) is headed back to Ford Field for its first championship game since 2009 thanks in part to a second-straight single-digit performance by its defense. After holding Napoleon to only six points in the Regional Final, the Titans kept Millington to its fewest this fall (Millington also had scored only seven against Frankenmuth in Week 5). The Semifinal was the first for the Cardinals (11-1) since back-to-back trips in 2009 and 2010. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 34, Ubly 16
The Pirates (13-0) will return to the Division 7 Final after finishing runner-up a year ago. And they booked the trip by downing an undefeated team for the third straight week, handing Ubly (12-1) a first loss after doing the same to Traverse City St. Francis in the Regional Final and Saugatuck in the District championship game. After missing 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in three seasons, Pirates running back Jared Smith came back with 119 yards and two scores on 17 carries. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Detroit Loyola 54, Cassopolis 22
Loyola will play in its fourth championship game in five seasons seeking to add to its 2014 title after continuing a playoff run that has seen the Bulldogs beat four league title winners and all by at least 23 points. Cassopolis (11-2), champion of the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Red, was playing in its first Semifinal and set a program record this fall for victories. But the usually defense-strong Rangers couldn’t stop a Loyola attack that scored its second-most points this season. Click for more from State Champs! Sports Network.
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central 35, St. Ignace 0
The Crusaders (13-0) will play for a fourth straight Division 8 championship after improving on a Week 2 win over the Saints. MCC had beaten St. Ignace 21-6 in that first meeting, and led this one 21-0 by the end of its first possession of the second half. The shutout was the Crusaders’ third straight, and they’ve given up only seven points total over four playoff games. MCC also defeated the Saints (11-2) in a Semifinal last season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 40, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 21
Whiteford (13-0) has been building for years toward what will be its first championship game , and broke through after also playing but falling in a Semifinal a year ago. Jesse Kiefer ran for 183 yards and three touchdowns as the team piled up 526 yards of total offense, and the defense held mostly tight despite 152 yards rushing and two scores by MLS’s Casey Williams on only eight carries. The Cardinals finished 10-3 after reaching their second Semifinal in three seasons. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
PHOTO: Walled Lake Western's Cody White breaks through the line against Lowell in their Division 2 Semifinal on Saturday. (Photo courtesy of State Champs! Sports Network.)