Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Semifinals Preview
November 18, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Ford Field is only one more win away for 32 teams playing in MHSAA Semifinals on Saturday.
Five of eight reigning champions are playing to get back. Twice as many teams are playing to reach the final round for the first time.
Below is a look at all 16 Semifinal games, powered by MI Student Aid. All games will be broadcast, four on FoxSportsDetroit.com and 12 on MHSAA.tv; click for the schedule. And stay connected all Saturday for scores as they come in on MHSAA.com.
Division 1
Romeo (9-3) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (12-0) at Howell Parker Middle School
Reigning Division 1 champion Romeo seemed out of the running for a return run with two losses over the first five weeks (although by just a combined three points) and then a big one in Week 8 to Macomb Dakota. But a defense that has given up more than 16 points only once since opening night has given up just 17 total over three playoff games. Leading rusher and receiver Kade Messner (617 yards/6 TDs rushing, 229 yards/1 TD receiving) averages 10 yards per carry. DCC fell to Romeo in a Regional Final last year, 40-29, but has churned out a perfect season to earn a rematch, with senior Nick Capatina (996 yards/13 TDs rushing) and junior Cameron Ryan (748/14) carrying a good chunk of the load.
Utica Eisenhower (12-0) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (12-0) at Troy Athens
The Eagles are making their first Semifinal appearance since 2011, when they fell to Cass Tech 6-3, and already have secured their winningest season since 2003. Junior quarterback Max Wittwer (1,574 yards/19 TDs passing, 768 yards/8 TDs rushing) and senior running back Jack Provencher (1,434 yards/24 TDs rushing) make it impossible for defenses to stack in trying to stop an offense that has scored at least 42 points in every playoff game. Cass Tech is more familiar with this round than most; this will be its seventh straight Semifinal. The Technicians feature some of the best-known playmakers in the state, including senior quarterback Rodney Hall (2,125 yards/22 TDs passing) and senior receiver Donovan People-Jones (889 yards/15 TDs receiving).
Division 2
Walled Lake Western (11-1) vs. Lowell (12-0) at Brighton
This is a rematch of a 2015 Semifinal won by Lowell 49-34 – and the Red Arrows also beat Western 42-35 in a 2011 Semifinal. The Warriors reaching their first MHSAA championship game since 1999 likely will rest in part on the arm of senior quarterback Johnny Tracy (2,050 yards/23 TDs passing) and senior receivers Kameron Ford (1,013 yards/12 TDs receiving) and Cody White (669 yards/9 TDs receiving, 443 yards/6 TDs rushing). Lowell also follows a talented quarterback, junior David Kruse (1,573 yards/8 TDs passing, 1,438 yards/23 TDs rushing), and his leading running back, senior Nate Stephens (1,402 yards/21 TDs.). And trust the Red Arrows are extra motivated to get back to Ford Field after watching last season’s title slip away to Detroit Martin Luther King on the final play of the game.
Birmingham Groves (11-1) vs. Detroit Martin Luther King (10-2) at Dearborn
The reigning champion Crusaders have lost only to Division 1 semifinalist Detroit Cass Tech, twice, and are playing in their fourth Semifinal in six seasons. After the sudden death of coach Dale Harvel in July, King has rallied behind new coach Ty Spencer and followed sophomore quarterback Dequan Finn (1,986 yards/33 TDs passing) with major contributions by senior running back Kevin Willis (1,003 yards/13 TDs rushing) and senior receiver Ambry Thomas (766 yards/13 TDs receiving) among many others. After making its first Regional Final since 2004, Groves is playing in its first Semifinal ever. The Falcons have given up more than 15 points only once since opening night and 25 total over three playoff games while getting balanced offensive power from senior quarterback Beau Kewley (909 yards/12 TDs passing) and senior running back Ernest Allen (924 yards/11 TDs rushing).
Division 3
Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. Muskegon (11-1) at East Kentwood
Edwardsburg will play its third Semifinal in seven seasons seeking its first championship game berth and coming off a two-point win over Chelsea, last season’s Division 3 runner-up. And this might be the most impressive team of the Eddies’ recent run. Edwardsburg gave up only 38 points over the first 10 weeks of the season before allowing 60 total over the last two; the Eddies also have run for 4,473 yards, led by juniors Nick Bradley (1,363 yards/18 TDs) and Kyle Shrider (843 yards/15 TDs). After making only the Regional Final last season, Muskegon is back in its fourth Semifinal over the last five years. The Big Reds already have set a program record with 634 points (52.8 per game) keyed by their dual quarterbacks – senior Kalil Pimpleton (714 yards/14 TDs passing, 1,314 yards/21 TDs rushing) and junior La’darius Jefferson (863 yards/9 TDs passing, 709 yards/15 TDs rushing).
Dearborn Divine Child (10-2) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (8-4) at West Bloomfield
This is the first meeting between these Detroit Catholic League contenders since 2008. The Falcons have built their strongest effort since 1985 with a six-game winning streak after suffering back-to-back losses in Weeks 5 and 6. Divine Child avenged one of those, to Division 7 semifinalist Detroit Loyola, in Week 9, and last week handed Allen Park its only loss of the season. Junior quarterback Theo Day has thrown for 1,508 yards and 21 touchdowns to lead the way. Reigning Division 3 champion St. Mary’s advanced to its seventh Semifinal in eight seasons with a comeback win at DeWitt last week. The Eaglets move the ball with junior running backs RaShawn Allen (1,833 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Ky’ren Cunningham (860 yards/13 TDs), who both average at least eight yards a carry.
Division 4
Hudsonville Unity Christian (10-2) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) at Greenville
Unity Christian’s best season ever moves on to its first Semifinal, thanks to an overtime win over previously undefeated Benton Harbor last week. The Crusaders won’t be intimidated by the annually successful Cougars after navigating the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green, one of the most competitive leagues in the state this season. They cover a lot of ground with senior running back Parker Scholten (1,353 yards/14 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Mitchell Dykstra (924/15). GRCC is making its first Semifinal appearance since winning Division 4 in 2010. But the Cougars have a chance to do some great things next year too with juniors the top playmakers this fall. Quarterback Jack Bowen has thrown for 2,329 yards and 24 touchdowns and running back Nolan Fugate is the leading rusher with 1,359 yards and 11 scores on the ground.
River Rouge (11-1) vs. Detroit Country Day (12-0) at Hazel Park
River Rouge just missed its first MHSAA championship a year ago, falling to Grand Rapids West Catholic by six in the Final, and hasn’t really been slowed this fall. The Panthers at one point shut out seven straight opponents and eight over nine games including the first of the playoffs, and they’ve gone over 600 points for the second season in a row led by senior quarterback Jairus Grissom (1,369 yards/18 TDs rushing, 1,967 yards/23 TDs passing). Country Day is playing its fourth Semifinal in five seasons seeking its first championship game berth since 2012. The Yellowjackets are incredibly balanced on offense, with a pair of quarterbacks (senior Steven Mann and sophomore Jalen Graham) both having success. But the defense stands out most; led by senior linebacker Kolin Demens, Country Day is giving up only 8.6 points per game and has allowed more than 14 only twice.
Division 5
Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Menominee (11-1) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
The Eagles have had only four sub-.500 finishes over the last 32 seasons, and 22 playoff appearances during that time. But they broke through again for their first Semifinal berth since 1997, handing Ithaca last week its first loss not in an MHSAA Final since 2008. Senior running back Kris Roche (1,005 yards/16 TDs rushing) and senior quarterback Jared Davis (922 yards/16 TDs rushing, 1,169 yards/11 TDs passing) give Frankenmuth multiple threats. As it has done for decades, Menominee is again trampling opponents, although lead back Keifer Rasner (1,372 yards/20 TDs rushing, 410 yards/3 TDs passing) was reportedly hurt two weeks ago and isn’t expected to play. Ethan Mileski (584 yards/5 TDs rushing, 1,066 yards/14 TDs passing) is another offensive standout to watch.
Algonac (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (10-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
Algonac’s best two seasons in program history have been this one and last, and they’ve taken the next step with their first Semifinal appearance. Senior quarterback Brendan Piper is a two-way threat, throwing for 1,086 yards and 13 touchdowns this fall and running for a team-high 903 yards and 14 scores. Three-time reigning champion West Catholic has had to play three road games this playoff run, but outscored those opponents by a combined 78-20. Veteran duo David Fox and Gaetano Vallone are again big reasons why; the senior running back sometimes quarterback Fox had thrown for 1,286 yards and 17 touchdowns and run for 689 yards and eight scores, while junior quarterback Vallone has thrown for 889 yards and seven TDs.
Division 6
Leroy Pine River (9-2) vs. Maple City Glen Lake (10-2) at Traverse City Thirlby Field
Pine River’s first run to a Semifinal has included a ninth win for the second time ever and first time since 1999. Senior quarterback Mason Powell has had quite a final campaign, bringing the Bucks back from 4-5 last season by throwing for 1,047 yards and 15 touchdowns and running for 1,259 yards and 17 scores. The Lakers have had a little more recent success but still are making their first Semifinal appearance since 1996. Junior running back Nick Apsey carries a lot of the load offensively and has scored 22 times. But the defense also has been outstanding, giving up more than 14 points only twice and 112 points total this fall.
Jackson Lumen Christi (10-2) vs. Millington (11-1) at Lansing Catholic
Lumen Christi is back in the Semifinals for the first time since winning Division 5 in 2009; the Titans have won nine straight games to get here. Running back Bo Bell was the star in last week’s Regional Final win over Napoleon, and all season as well; he’s run for 2,200 yards and 29 touchdowns. Quarterback Troy Kutcha has added 1,313 yards and 10 scores through the air and run for six touchdowns. Millington is playing in its fifth Semifinal and seeking to reach the championship round for the first time. Junior quarterback Bryce Bearss (2,212 yards/25 TDs passing) and senior running back Brady Payne (1,196 yards/14 TDs rushing) give the Cardinals a strong 1-2 punch as well.
Division 7
Ubly (12-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) at Mount Pleasant
Reigning Division 7 runner-up Pewamo-Westphalia will face its third straight undefeated opponent after handing first and only losses to Saugatuck and Traverse City St. Francis the last two weeks. Senior running back Jared Smith fell short of 100 yards rushing last week for the first time since his sophomore year, but continues to inch toward the MHSAA career rushing record and now has 2,403 yards and 36 touchdowns on the ground this season and more than 8,000 yards rushing for his career. Ubly also is a recent visitor to the Finals, its last trip coming in 2008. The Bearcats have controlled the ball with a rumbling ground game as well; senior Derek Brown has run for 1,226 yards and 19 touchdowns and senior Jonathan Brandel has gained 980 yards and 15 scores rushing.
Detroit Loyola (10-2) vs. Cassopolis (11-1) at Jackson
Loyola is another regular in this round, playing in its fifth straight Semifinal. The Bulldogs have beaten a league champion every week of the playoffs this time, and Cassopolis would be the fourth. Loyola averages 34 running plays per game and brings three 1,000-yard rushers – Malcolm Mayes (1,240 yards/14 TDs), D’Anthony Robinson (1,208 yards/18 TDs) and quarterback Price Watkins (1,010 yards/8 TDs rushing, 659 yards/7 TDs passing). Cassopolis is playing in his first Semifinal after setting a program record for wins last week. The Rangers roll with a loaded backfield; senior quarterback Shane Los has thrown for 1,320 yards and 17 touchdowns, while junior Brandon Anderson has run for 956 yards and 11 touchdowns and scored six more receiving. Sophomore Tyrese Hunt-Thompson has run for 811 yards and 10 scores and is the leading receiver with 533 yards and five TDs.
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central (12-0) vs. St. Ignace (11-1) at Petoskey
This is a rematch both of last season’s Semifinal (33-20 MCC win) and Week 2 of this fall (Crusaders 21-6), as St. Ignace gave MCC easily its closest game this season. The Crusaders have won three straight Division 8 titles and after facing mostly bigger schools during the regular season have given up only seven points over three playoff games. Senior LaTommy Scott (820 yards/8 TDs rushing) has starred for a few seasons and is one of five who have rushed for at least 370 yards. The Saints attack in multiple ways; senior running back Mitchell Peterson has run for 1,275 yards and senior quarterback Steve Seccia has thrown for 1,530 and 23 touchdowns.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford (12-0) vs. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (10-2) at Dearborn Edsel Ford
Whiteford’s best two seasons also were the last two, with the Bobcats winning 10 games for the first time in 2015 and this their second straight Semifinal. Whiteford has set school records with 545 points, 222 first downs, 552 carries and 3,729 rushing yards this fall. Leading the way are running back Jessie Kiefer (1,057 yards, 27 touchdowns rushing, 287 yards/5 TDs receiving) and freshman Conner Hoogendoorn (811 yards/15 TDs). Michigan Lutheran Seminary is playing in its second Semifinal in three seasons to reach its first championship game since 1986. The Cardinals have given up only 13 points over three playoff games and force an average of two turnovers per game. Senior Casey Williams is the main scorer with 24 touchdowns, with 19 on the ground (and 1,226 yards).
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PHOTO: Muskegon Catholic Central's LaTommy Scott (20) breaks away for a touchdown against Frankfort in last week's Regional Final. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)