Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
After Lean Years, Ubly Returns to Regional
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
November 9, 2016
Aaron Klama sat in the stands in 2008 watching his brothers play for Ubly in the Division 7 championship game at Ford Field.
Klama was 10, and Ubly was at the peak of the strongest decade in program history. Even though his brothers and their teammates lost against Traverse City St. Francis, Klama remembers wanting to be like them. Wanting to have the same opportunity to play on that field.
There’s plenty of work for Klama and his Ubly teammates left to do, but after some rough years for the program, the Bearcats are 11-0 and two wins from getting back to the pinnacle of high school football in Michigan.
“I feel like it’s amazing just being able to possibly be in the same shoes as my brothers,” Klama, a senior offensive and defensive tackle for Ubly, said. “Hopefully I’ll be able to push my team further than they even went. But everything has just been amazing this year.”
Ubly is in the middle of its best season since 2010. It will play at 1 p.m. Saturday against New Lothrop at Chesaning High School in a Division 7 Regional Final. A win sends the Bearcats to the Semifinals for the first time since 2009 and the fifth time in school history. All four of the previous trips came between 2003 and 2009, during a 12-year playoff streak for Ubly that stretched through 2012.
That streak ended in 2013, when the current seniors were freshmen. Ubly was 3-6 during both the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
“We had a couple years where numbers were really down,” Ubly coach Dave Kaufman, who took over the program in 2011, said. “In (2013 and 2014), we were playing with 14 to 16 kids. We had some small senior classes.
“It was tough. We’re used to being in the 20s, and the first couple years our numbers were pretty good. We had some small senior classes, and the injury bug kicked our butt, too. When you’re down in numbers as it is, that’s when you’re starting to bring up freshmen and sophomores.”
That included running back Derek Brown, who started as a freshman for the Bearcats and has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his four seasons. It included Klama, running back and defensive back Nate Keller and several others who were playing at the varsity level as sophomores.
As much as it may have hurt at the time, getting that experience is paying dividends now.
“I think (having players play as underclassmen) helped,” Kaufman said. “I think it also helps that we have a really good senior group. Some of these kids have been playing for three or four years, and that definitely helps.”
In 2015, Ubly was back in the postseason, finishing the year 7-3 and turning the program back in the right direction. What happened between the end of that season and the beginning of this one is what Ubly’s players credit for their current success.
“Everybody was in the weight room all winter, and everybody wants to win on the team,” Keller said. “We didn’t just have two guys in the weight room; it was 15 or 16 guys in there, busting their butts.
“We had guys that would be telling everybody to get into the weight room, because we want to win more than anybody. We had a few leaders that told everybody to get in there.”
After struggling as underclassmen, turning things around in 2015 and setting the tone with a strong offseason prior to this fall, Ubly had high hopes entering its Week 1 game against a tough Unionville-Sebewaing opponent.
Then the Bearcats fumbled on their first offensive play.
“It was kind of like, ‘We can only go up from here, I guess,’” Keller said. “I think that just fueled the fire. We were ready to play from there.”
Ubly responded, and won 28-18, showing its coach something in the process.
“That could have went the wrong way there,” Kaufman said. “That told me a lot about my team right there.”
His team showed him more in a 21-16 win against Cass City, a game in which the Bearcats trailed during the second half. A 54-34 win against Vassar had Ubly sitting at 3-0 after a stretch Kaufman said he would have been happy to finish 2-1.
Ubly rolled through the Greater Thumb Conference East, outscoring opponents by an average of 37.4 points per game. It has picked up playoff wins against Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port and Unionville-Sebewaing, setting itself up for the matchup with a tough New Lothrop team.
Ubly is back where it expects to be, and it has done it the same way it did during the 2000s, by wearing on its opponents with a strong run game out of the T-formation and a strong defense.
Ubly has rushed for 3,500 yards and 51 touchdowns this season, taking advantage of an offensive line (including tight ends) that features five seniors. Brown has led the way with 1,188 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, while senior Jonathon Brandel has 861 yards and 14 touchdowns -- adding four receiving scores plus two interception returns and one punt return for touchdowns. Keller and junior quarterback Matt Maikzrek have combined for nearly 1,000 yards and 14 more rushing touchdowns.
“We have no problem chugging away, eating up clock,” Kaufman said. “When teams haven’t faced (the T-formation) in a little bit, they struggle a little bit with the keys. We try to hide the football as well as we can, and we’re happy getting three, four or five yards a crack. There’s not a better defense than an offense that stays on the field.”
Ubly’s offense is a lot like its attitude through the rough times – just keep moving forward.
“As we walk through the locker room every day, we have a little billboard that says, ‘Those who stay will become champions,’” Klama said. “We slap it on the way out. The coaches even told us that if we stay and work hard, we weren’t going to regret it. They always taught us about loyalty and determination.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Ubly's Casey Sweeney breaks through a pack against Unionville-Sebewaing this season. (Middle) Jonathan Brandel carries the ball for the Bearcats. (Photos courtesy of the Ubly yearbook staff.)