Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Northern Powers Building on Tradition
October 28, 2016
By Dennis Chase
Special for Second Half
TRAVERSE CITY – Matt Stapleton jokes when he talks about his 19-year run as the Frankfort football coach.
“If you ask how many games we’ve won while I’ve been here, the answer would be, ‘Not enough,’” he quipped. “And if you ask how many we’ve lost, it would be “Too many.’”
Well, nobody is asking that second question, particularly this season. Frankfort heads into tonight’s MHSAA Division 8 playoffs with a perfect 9-0 record. The Panthers are one of two unbeaten in the northern Lower Peninsula. Traverse City St. Francis is the other.
That should come as no surprise to those who follow football in the north. The two schools are the winningest programs, percentage-wise, in the area. St. Francis ranks seventh in the state with a winning percentage of 76.8 percent since the school started playing football in 1951. Frankfort ranks 24th with a 71.4 winning percentage since 1950.
St. Francis, which has won six MHSAA championships, just put together back-to-back unbeaten regular seasons for the second time in school history. The 1991-92 teams also accomplished the feat. Gladiators head coach Josh Sellers played on the 1991 team as did offensive line coach Aaron Biggar and offensive coordinator Scott Doriot, who was also the quarterback on the 1992 Class C title squad.
“After (last Friday’s win) I told the team, ‘Hey, welcome to the club, guys,” Sellers said.
“They took it in stride, but they should be happy and excited about it,” Doriot added. “It’s super special, a heck of an accomplishment.”
Frankfort, meanwhile, completed its first 9-0 regular season since 2004.
Now the two programs are back in familiar territory – the playoffs. St. Francis, which hosts Harbor Springs on Saturday in a Division 7 contest, is in the postseason for the 30th time since 1983. During one stretch, the Gladiators, who have reached the MHSAA Finals nine times, qualified 22 years in a row. Frankfort, which hosts Evart tonight, is in the playoffs for the 28th time in the last 32 years. The Panthers own two MHSAA crowns, and during one six-year stretch played for the title five times.
Maintaining that tradition is a powerful motivator at the two schools.
“It’s a ‘your turn’ mentality,” Stapleton said. “Each team has its own identity, but the goals remain the same. For this team, it’s our turn, our opportunity.”
The same holds true at St. Francis.
“We want to follow in the footsteps of the guys before us,” senior back Gabe Callery, a water boy on some previous MHSAA championship teams, said. “That’s why we set our goals so high, because we’ve seen what those teams did. Now we want to taste it for our own.”
Like many, Callery had an older brother play in the Gladiators program. So he and his teammates know the bar is set high.
“It’s expectations,” Sellers said. “The coaches don’t have to push (playoffs) as one of our goals. It’s engrained in the kids, especially in the multi-generational families that have been a part of the program here.”
St. Francis and Frankfort made strong playoff runs last season. The Gladiators reached the Division 6 Semifinals before losing to eventual champion Ithaca. Frankfort fell to Division 8 champion Muskegon Catholic Central in the Regional. St. Francis and Frankfort led those games in the second half.
Both teams have had just one tight game this season, and it came at home with Maple City Glen Lake. St. Francis downed the Lakers 21-13 in Week 2, while Frankfort rallied for a 26-21 triumph in Week 6. Those were the only two losses Glen Lake, a Division 6 qualifier, suffered during the regular season.
For the Panthers, that game was a defining moment. Not only did it put Frankfort in position to win the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders division, but it proved the Panthers could play with character and toughness under fire.
“That was an incredible (game), a good test for us to see if we could play at a high level for four quarters,” Stapleton said.
It helped to create an identity, he added.
“In those (pressure) situations, do you crumble or step up?” he said. “We stepped up pretty well.”
The players thought so, too.
“After that game, we thought, ‘Wow, we could make something happen this year,’” Panthers senior quarterback Tige Stockdale said.
“It meant a lot to us,” junior running back/linebacker Griffin Kelly added. “That was one of our goals – to beat Glen Lake. We worked hard and (played) with a lot of heart. We were the underdogs. I don’t think they expected it.”
St. Francis, meanwhile, cruised to the Northern Michigan Football League’s Legends crown, taking the title outright with a 22-0 win over Boyne City last Friday.
The Gladiators are an experienced team with 19 seniors on the roster.
“Experience is our strength,” Sellers said. “A good number of our seniors were on varsity as sophomores, especially up front on the offensive line. We have two juniors on the front seven, and one is a third-year varsity starter.”
St. Francis lost some key cogs to graduation in the backfield, but Callery returned for his third varsity season.
“He didn’t get a lot of touches last year,” Sellers said, “so he’s making up for lost time.”
Callery leads the ground game with 891 yards in eight games (one win was a forfeit), averaging 9.1 yards per carry. Tim Bott’s average is even better at 12.5 yards per carry. He’s picked up 401 yards on just 32 carries. Joey Muzljakovich has 390 rushing yards.
Sophomore quarterback Danny Passinault, who won a three-way battle for the job, oversees the offense, which averages 40 points per game. He’s completed 26 of 44 passes for 509 yards and 12 touchdowns. Chris Kolarevic (seven) and Michael Hegewald (four) have caught 11 of the 12 TD passes.
“We’ve been on an upward trend (offensively) the last four or five games, although I didn’t think we played our best against Boyne,” Doriot said.
Defensively, the Gladiators are limiting opponents to six points and just under 170 yards in total offense per contest. Ryan Lints, Kolarevic, Muzljakovich and Matt Biggar are the team’s leading tacklers. Lints, a lineman, has five sacks, Callery three interceptions.
The Gladiators are relatively healthy entering the postseason.
“We had a hold-your-breath moment against Cheboygan when we lost (back) Connor McGee,” Sellers said. “He dislocated his elbow, and we thought he would be out five to six weeks. But we found out today (Monday) he’s back. He missed two games.”
At Frankfort, Stapleton’s been pleased with his squad’s consistency in improving every week. He said that loss to Muskegon Catholic last November was a “springboard” for his players.
“Our kids were like, ‘We just went toe-to-toe with the team that won the last three (Division 8) state championships,’” Stapleton said. “Our kids felt disappointed because we could have won that game. We just didn’t finish.”
And that’s been the mindset this season.
Unlike St. Francis, the Panthers are not senior heavy. At times, Stapleton’s started four seniors on offense, four on defense.
Kelly is the sparkplug. He’s rushed for 1,250 yards on 132 carries (a 9.5-yard average) in eight games (one win was a forfeit).
“What’s nice about Grif is that he’s not consumed by statistics,” Stapleton said. “There’s only been three games he’s had carries in the fourth quarter.
“He’s a special player. He makes calling plays pretty easy. You want the ball in his hands. If he gets stuffed one play, he’s going to make something happen the next.”
Kelly runs behind a line that features 6-foot-3, 300-pound junior tackle Matt Stefanski, a “legitimate” college prospect, Stapleton said. The Panthers start three seniors and two juniors up front.
“I have a lot of trust in them,’ Kelly said of his line. “They’re outstanding.”
Stockdale is another weapon. He’s rushed for nearly 600 yards and passed for 300. He’s accounted for 15 touchdowns. Junior receiver Matt Loney is averaging 16 yards a reception for an offense that is scoring 43 points a game.
Kelly leads the defense with 85 tackles. Stefanski anchors the middle with seniors Colton Ryder and Wil Darling providing the pressure from their end positions and channeling plays to the interior.
Not unexpectedly, the future continues to look bright at St. Francis and Frankfort, too. The Gladiators junior varsity team finished unbeaten for the third year in a row, while the Frankfort JV team went 8-1, on the heels of two unbeaten campaigns.
For now, though, it’s a one-game-at-a-time mantra in the playoffs.
“We have one week guaranteed,” Frankfort’s Kelly said. “You never know if you’re going to have practice (the following) Monday.”
At St. Francis, Callery, for one, is savoring the final stretch of his high school career.
“Maybe it’s the weather getting cold, but it’s a different feel,” he said. “And if you don’t feel different during the playoffs, something’s wrong with you. It’s a special time.”
Dennis Chase worked 32 years as a sportswriter at the Traverse City Record-Eagle, including as sports editor from 2000-14. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS: (Top) Frankfort quarterback Tige Stockdale prepares to pitch during an Aug. 26 win over Manton. (Middle) St. Francis' Chris Kolarevic works upfield during his team's win over Cheboygan on Oct. 7. ( Below) Griffin Kelly (4) hurdles a would-be tackler for a touchdown against Central Lake on Sept. 2. (Photos by Amy Plumstead [Frankfort] and Leslie Julian [St. Francis].)