Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 9 in Review
October 25, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The MHSAA football playoffs are upon us. From 617 teams that began this season, we’re down to watching our final 272.
But before we get too far ahead, there’s plenty to review from the final week of the regular season – including a number of upsets that altered the playoff field and brackets created Sunday.
Bay & Thumb
Fenton 28, Linden 21
The Tigers (7-2) scored with three minutes to play to move past Linden (6-3) for good and claim an outright Flint Metro League championship; a Linden win would’ve created a three-way tie for the title with these two and Ortonville Brandon. Fenton has won 29 straight league games and opened this season with two nonleague losses. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Lapeer 24, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 14 – Carman-Ainsworth (6-3) won the Saginaw Valley League Blue and Lapeer was only second in the Red, but the Lightning (7-2) did remain undefeated in their three-year series with the Cavaliers.
Freeland 7, Frankenmuth 3 – The Tri-Valley Conference Central champion Falcons (9-0) made it three wins in two years over TVC East winner Frankenmuth (8-1), with a chance they could meet again in a Division 5 District Final.
Pinconning 20, Whittemore-Prescott 6 – The Spartans (6-3) claimed their first playoff berth since 2009, which also was their last season with a winning record; Whittemore-Prescott (5-4) did still make the postseason with an at-large bid.
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 24, New Lothrop 20 – The Cardinals (7-2) got a major boost heading into the playoffs, handing New Lothrop (8-1) its first regular-season loss since 2009.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Catholic Central 17, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 14
The last 11-player game of Michigan’s high school regular season had drama right until the end. The undefeated Shamrocks (9-0) were less than a minute from falling to St. Mary’s (5-4) in a Prep Bowl A-B Final rematch of the Detroit Catholic League Central first and second-place teams this fall. DCC scored with 21 seconds remaining for its second win over the Eaglets in three weeks after losses to them the last two seasons. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Also noted:
Bloomfield Hills 21, Lake Orion 0 – The 4-year-old Black Hawks (9-0) bounced back from 1-8 last season to win the Oakland Activities Association Blue title and make the playoffs for the first time; Lake Orion (5-4) did earn an at-large bid with four losses to teams that are a combined 27-9.
Detroit Cass Tech 41, Detroit Martin Luther King 20 – The Technicians (9-0) finished off another tremendous regular season with a second win over Martin Luther King (7-2), this time in the Public School League I final at Ford Field; Cass Tech has beaten all opponents by at least 13 points.
Detroit Denby 8, Detroit Mumford 0 – The Tars (8-1) guaranteed their best record since 2006 and claimed a PSL I/II championship by handing Mumford (7-2) its first loss since opening night.
Dearborn Divine Child 35, Detroit Loyola 24 – The Falcons (7-2) had lost seven times to Loyola (7-2) over the last five seasons including 34-24 in Week 5, but came back to break the streak in the Catholic League Prep Bowl.
Mid-Michigan
Williamston 38, Lake Fenton 35
Williamston needed to win its final regular-season game and some help to earn an at-large bid to the playoffs – but really helped itself by upsetting previously-undefeated Lake Fenton (8-1). A late defensive stand kept the Hornets (5-4) in the playoff mix, and they were selected to the field after missing at 4-5 a year ago. Lake Fenton, meanwhile still finished two wins better than 2015. Click for more from the Tri-City Times.
Also noted:
Holt 30, Grand Ledge 20 – The Rams (5-4) missed the playoffs by one spot among at-large teams from Class A, but the rebounding program can go into the offseason having handed Grand Ledge (6-1) the latter’s only loss in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue.
Ionia 35, Lake Odessa Lakewood 30 – The Bulldogs (4-5) mostly struggled in league play, but started this season with two wins and ended with two straight including this upset of longtime rival and Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Lakewood (8-1)
Lansing Catholic 42, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 20 – The Cougars (8-1) won their fifth straight, good momentum for this week’s matchup with reigning Division 5 champion Grand Rapids West Catholic, and also might have eliminated SMCC (4-5).
Fowler 27, Merrill 14 – The Eagles (6-3) continued their string of eight straight playoff berths by holding Merrill (6-3) to its second-fewest points this season.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City St. Francis 22, Boyne City 0
St. Francis (9-0) repeated as Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends champion with a second straight shutout and by ending a six-game winning streak by runner-up Boyne City (6-3). It was the second straight season this matchup determined the league title winner. The Gladiators have won 22 straight regular-season games. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Frankfort 46, Onekama 20 – The Portagers (9-0) completed their first perfect regular season since 2004 and an outright title in the NMFC Leaders by avoiding a spoiler attempt by Onekama (6-3).
Traverse City Central 49, Cadillac 6 – Central (8-1) bounced back from a Week 8 triple-overtime loss to Birmingham Brother Rice to finish a Big North Conference championship run against third-place Cadillac (6-3).
Grayling 34, Kalkaska 27 – The Vikings (6-3) clinched a seventh playoff berth in eight seasons but only after edging the playoff-bound Blazers (6-3), who are in for the first time since 2013.
Hillman 32, Indian River Inland Lakes 29 – By the slimmest of margins, Hillman (5-4) was able to extend its playoff streak to 11 seasons, earning an at-large bid with five wins over the last six games.
Southeast & Border
Saline 38, Birmingham Groves 3
The Hornets further strengthened their status as a Division 1 championship contender, winning big in a matchup of undefeated teams. Saline (9-0) completed its second straight perfect regular season with its second-best defensive performance this fall, holding Groves (8-1) to the latter's fewest points in a game since 2013. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.
Also noted:
Grass Lake 43, Springport 27 – The Warriors (8-1) got clipped by Michigan Center in Week 8, but came back to down Springport (7-2) in the Big 8/Cascades Conference championship game.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 38, Clinton 12 – The Bobcats (9-0) completed their first perfect regular season since 1965 and an outright Tri-County Conference title by sending fourth-place Clinton to 6-3.
Napoleon 25, Concord 20 – The Pirates (7-2) have won seven straight to guarantee their best finish since 2002, first winning season since 2006 and first playoff berth since 2005; Concord also finished the regular season 7-2.
Morenci 42, Adrian Madison 7 – The Bulldogs (6-3) have three losses by a combined eight points, but are back in the playoffs for the third straight season after ending any chance for Madison (4-5).
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central 24, St. Joseph 14
Portage Central (8-1) secured the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West championship outright after these teams shared the title in 2015. The Mustangs took a 14-0 lead late into the third quarter and extended it to 17 in the fourth before St. Joseph (6-3) added a late score. Portage Central hasn’t lost more than once during a regular season since 2012, building a record of 35-6 over the last four years.
Also noted:
Benton Harbor 54, Muskegon Heights Academy 6 – This is worth mention because it gave the Tigers (9-0) their first undefeated regular season since going 7-0-2 in 1962.
Three Rivers 14, Vicksburg 13 – The Wildcats (7-2) added to their comeback from 3-6 a year ago by just edging Vicksburg (7-2) to tie the Bulldogs for second in the Wolverine Conference.
Coldwater 31, Traverse City West 14 – The Cardinals (7-2) continued a nice run after their one-point loss in Week 6, sending West (6-3) home with a defeat.
Battle Creek Pennfield 22, Olivet 19 – Pennfield (5-4) got the needed boost from beating Olivet (5-4) to earn an at-large playoff berth after seasons of 2-7 in 2014 and 3-6 in 2015.
Upper Peninsula
St. Ignace 62, Newberry 20
The Saints (8-1) made another argument as the top 11-player title contender from the Upper Peninsula with a dominating performance against Mid-Eastern Conference runner-up Newberry (7-2). St. Ignace won the NMFC Legacy title this fall, and its only loss was to reigning Division 8 champion Muskegon Catholic Central, 21-6. Those two could meet again in a Semifinal next month. Click for more from 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Gwinn 38, Ishpeming 6 – With its first winning record since 2000, Gwinn (6-3) clinched its first playoff berth since 1999 while guaranteeing Ishpeming (3-5) wouldn’t be in the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Escanaba 49, Kingsford 42 – The Eskymos (7-2) secured their best record since 2011 despite losing by a point in Week 8 and ended up locking up a home playoff game by getting past also playoff-bound Kingsford (6-3).
Felch North Dickinson 56, Bark River-Harris 24 – This is reportedly the last season of 11-player for the Nordics (6-3), but they’re going out on a high note after earning their first playoff berth since 2013 with four wins over their last five games.
Iron Mountain 28, Norway 7 – Four of six Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference teams made the playoffs, including these two both at 7-2 for the regular season.
West Michigan
Hudsonville 14, Rockford 7
The Eagles (8-1) bounced back after a Week 4 loss to Grandville to win four straight in commanding fashion and earn the opportunity to take a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title in Week 9. Hudsonville finished the run with a late score on Rockford that created a three-way share of the championship with the Rams (6-3) and Grandville – and the Eagles also cemented home-field advantage through a District that includes both, with Rockford up again this week. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Allendale 30, Grand Rapids West Catholic 27 – Allendale’s first win over West Catholic since 2008 created a three-way championship in the O-K Blue between those two (both 7-2 overall) and Grand Rapids Catholic Central (8-1).
Byron Center 40, Hudsonville Unity Christian 19 – The Bulldogs (8-1) finished their O-K Green title by sending Unity Christian (7-2) into a tie for second in a league that will send five of seven teams to the playoffs.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 27, Greenville 16 – Scheduling tough does matter; Forest Hills Northern (5-4) was 0-4 against teams with winning records heading into Week 9 but earned an at-large bid thanks in part to this victory over also playoff-bound Greenville (5-4).
Whitehall 37, Battle Creek Harper Creek 30 – The Vikings (6-3) came back from two straight one-point losses Weeks 6 and 7 to get into the playoffs for the third season in a row; Harper Creek (7-2) is headed back after going 3-6 last season.
8-Player
Powers North Central 68, Stephenson 32
The reigning MHSAA champ Jets (9-0) finished their Western Eight Conference run and moved into the top seed in 8-player with a solid boost from beating third-place Stephenson (7-2). North Central is only a little behind the pace of its incredible numbers from a year ago – the Jets are outscoring opponents on average 69-17, and Stephenson was the first to score more than 18 since Week 3. Click for more from the Marinette EagleHerald.
Also noted:
Lawrence 22, Battle Creek St. Philip 14 – The final game to finish in 8-player over the weekend saw Lawrence (8-1) come back from two losses last season to St. Philip (5-4) to knock the reigning MHSAA runner-up out of the playoff mix.
Camden-Frontier 44, Waldron 18 – The Redskins (6-1) played their way into the playoffs after two straight 0-9 finishes by getting a key win over Waldron (4-5).
PHOTO: Holt over Grand Ledge was one of a number of upsets during Week 9 of the football regular season. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)