Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review
October 17, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
On one hand, this weekend was the second-to-last of a football regular season that seemed this fall to roll by as quickly as ever.
On the other, this weekend was just the start of the second half of the 14-week Michigan high school football season that finishes up in six weeks at Ford Field – and 174 teams have clinched opportunities to continue on the hunt for an MHSAA title.
This annually is one of the most important weeks of the season; more than 600 teams finish up regular-season play, and Sunday we'll announce the 256-team 11-player playoff field and 16 teams that will advance in 8-player. We'll talk about that more as this week goes on. But we'll start with the highlights of all that was Week 8 below.
Bay & Thumb
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 34, Midland Dow 27
The Cavaliers (6-2) bounced back from a 1-2 start to go undefeated in winning the Saginaw Valley League Blue title, but had to beat co-leader Dow in the final game to finish the run. Carman-Ainsworth last won a league title in 2013, but had finished fifth and then fourth in the SVL Red over the last two seasons while Dow was hoping for a third straight Blue title. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Richmond 28, Algonac 13 – For the second straight season, this matchup decided at least partially the Blue Water Area Conference title; for the second straight season, Richmond (7-1) beat Algonac (7-1), this time to win the league outright.
Bay City Central 17, Saginaw Heritage 14 – The Wolves (5-3) held on against the Hawks (3-5) to edge closer to a first playoff berth since 2007, and can clinch a spot this week against rival Bay City Western.
Ubly 54, Harbor Beach 12 – The Bearcats (8-0) won the Greater Thumb Conference East title outright while guaranteeing their best season finish since 2010 and sending Harbor Beach to 4-4.
Marysville 28, St. Clair 27 – The Macomb Area Conference Gold champion Vikings (8-0) guaranteed their best record since 2011 and have a chance to go 9-0 for the first time since 2003 after just edging St. Clair (4-4).
Greater Detroit
Utica Eisenhower 38, Warren Mott 6
The Eagles (8-0) couldn’t clinch the Macomb Area Conference Red title outright until this final league game, but did so comfortably after jumping out to a 24-0 lead. Five of six teams in the league are still alive for playoff berths – Eisenhower and Mott (6-2) have clinched, and Romeo, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Macomb Dakota can get in with wins this week – which makes Eisenhower’s first league title since 2011 all the more impressive. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Birmingham Brother Rice 20, Traverse City Central 17 (3OT) – The Warriors (5-3) kept themselves alive to return to the playoffs by handing Central (7-1) its first loss with a marathon effort.
Dearborn 28, Dearborn Fordson 23 – This matchup of neighborly rivals also ended up as a matchup of Western Wayne Athletic Conference divisional champs; Dearborn (7-1) broke a three-game losing streak against the Tractors (7-1).
Clarkston 45, Lake Orion 16 – Despite a Week 2 overtime loss to Southfield Arts & Technology, Clarkston (6-2) stormed back to earn a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title in part because Lake Orion (5-3) handed the Warriors a league loss in Week 5.
Warren Michigan Collegiate 34, Harper Woods Chandler Park 22 – The Cougars (7-1) clinched the Charter School Conference championship for the first time since 2011 as these two met to decide the league title for the third straight year; Chandler Park (5-3) has the week off but will make the playoffs with five wins in eight games.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 31, East Lansing 28
The Comets (7-1) jumped to an early lead and saw four players score as they stayed just ahead of East Lansing to clinch the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title outright for the second straight season. East Lansing (5-3) had fallen to Jackson in its league opener but had a chance to create a shared championship with a victory. Grand Ledge’s only loss this season was on opening night, by seven, to Hudsonville. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Clare 31, Beaverton 14 – The Pioneers (7-1) earned a share of their ninth Jack Pine Conference championship in 10 seasons while putting the Beavers (5-3) in a must-win situation this week.
Fowlerville 30, Corunna 15 – The Gladiators (6-2) secured their first playoff berth since 2010, also the last season they won at least six games; Corunna fell to 6-2 as well but had already clinched a spot.
DeWitt 48, Menominee 14 – In a battle of annual Ford Field hopefuls, DeWitt (7-1) became the first this season to hold the Maroons (7-1) to fewer than 28 points.
Brighton 41, Howell 20 – The Bulldogs (7-1) staved off the Highlanders (5-3) to win the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West outright and earn this week’s Lakes final berth against Walled Lake Western.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Frankfort 28, Charlevoix 0
The Panthers (8-0) repeated at Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends division champions with their second straight shutout and third this season. They earned a share and can clinch outright this week against Onekama. The win also extended Frankfort’s best start since 2004, the last time the team finished a perfect regular season. Charlevoix (6-2) still can finish with its most wins since 2006 with another this week against Mesick. Click for more from 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Johannesburg-Lewiston 30, East Jordan 28 – The Cardinals (4-4) kept themselves in the hunt for a sixth straight playoff berth while also forcing East Jordan (4-4) into hoping for an at-large bid.
Harbor Springs 38, Gaylord St. Mary 24 – In what could be considered an upset, Harbor Springs (4-4) actually moved past St. Mary (6-2) in the NMFC Legacy standings with a third straight win.
Cadillac 26, Manistee 22 – With one-loss Traverse City Central and a shot at a share of the Big North Conference title up this week, Cadillac (6-2) was wise to get playoff qualification out of the way with a close win over Manistee (4-4).
Whittemore-Prescott 14, Hillman 0 – The Cardinals (5-3) kept themselves alive for an automatic berth to their 10th straight playoffs, but Hillman (4-4) will need a win and some help to qualify for the 11th straight season.
Southeast & Border
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 48, Sand Creek 20
Whiteford (8-0) closed out its first perfect run through the Tri-County Conference since joining the league in 1975 and set itself up for its first perfect regular season since 1965. The Bobcats have won five straight over Sand Creek, which still is enjoying its best season since 2005. Click for more from the Toledo Blade.
Also noted:
Brooklyn Columbia Central 28, Dundee 26 – The Golden Eagles (6-2) clinched back-to-back playoff berths for the first time in program history while eliminating Dundee (3-5) from postseason consideration.
Ida 52, Hillsdale 13 – The Bluestreaks (7-1) came up big against a dangerous opponent in Hillsdale (4-4) to remain tied for first with Hudson in the Lenawee County Athletic Association with a game to play.
Monroe Jefferson 20, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 – The Bears (4-4) guaranteed their best finish since 2011 and gave themselves a chance at making the playoffs for the first time since 2006 while also putting the Falcons (4-4) in a tougher spot as they go for a 13th berth in 14 seasons.
Michigan Center 24, Grass Lake 22 – In arguably the night’s biggest upset statewide, Michigan Center (5-3) gave itself a chance to earn a playoff berth this week and gave Napoleon a share of the Cascades Conference title by dealing co-champion Grass Lake (7-1) its first loss.
Southwest Corridor
Berrien Springs 33, Buchanan 27 (OT)
A two-point loss to Buchanan kept Berrien Springs from winning the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph White title last season, but the Shamrocks finished the run this time after coming back from nine down in the fourth quarter to force overtime. Berrien Springs (5-2) also clinched a playoff berth because it has an eight-game schedule; Buchanan (4-3) also is playing eight games and must beat Niles Brandywine this week to get in automatically. Click for more from the South Bend Tribune.
Also noted:
Battle Creek Harper Creek 21, Marshall 20 – The Beavers (7-1) bounced back from their only loss to just edge Marshall (4-4) and keep a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship, with Jackson Lumen Christi securing the other half.
Benton Harbor 47, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 21 – The Tigers (8-1) tied their highest win total since 1985 in sending Notre Dame Prep to 4-4.
Schoolcraft 20, Constantine 10 – The Eagles (8-0) got by far their best game of the season from the old rival Falcons (5-3) in a matchup of Southwestern Athletic Conference divisional champions.
Edwardsburg 38, Three Rivers 0 – Make that 28 straight Wolverine Conference wins, four straight league titles (after clinching a share), and three straight shutouts for Edwardsburg (8-0), which has beaten Three Rivers (6-2) in five straight.
Upper Peninsula
Norway 25, Gwinn 2
Norway will need help to claim a share of the Mid-Peninsula Conference title – leader Negaunee can clinch outright this week against two-win Ishpeming Westwood. But the Knights (7-1) have equaled their most victories since 2010 and with another will guarantee their best finish since 2006. Gwinn (5-3) must beat Ishpeming this week to clinch a first playoff berth since 1999. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Iron River West Iron County 34, Hancock 7 – The Wykons (5-3) remain alive for an automatic berth with L’Anse (2-6) up next; Hancock (4-4) lost that automatic berth chance and must beat rival Houghton (3-5) this week to have an at-large shot.
St. Ignace 24, Ishpeming 16 – The Saints (7-1) avenged last season’s six-point loss to the Hematites (3-4), who must win this week to have a chance at extending their 14-season playoff streak.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 24, Felch North Dickinson 6 – The Broncos (8-0) clinched a share of the Mid-Eastern Conference title and sent North Dickinson (5-3) out of second place and into a must-win situation.
Kingsford 43, Gladstone 14 – The Flivvers (6-2) clinched their second straight playoff berth and fourth in five seasons while knocking Gladstone (3-5) out of consideration.
West Michigan
Muskegon Oakridge 31, Montague 28
Oakridge is another that enjoyed revenge and a league title celebration Friday. The Eagles (8-0) dominated the West Michigan Conference last season before losing to Montague (6-2) by seven in the final league game and finishing second to the Wildcats. This time, Oakridge hung on by scoring the final 17 points including the winning field goal with 25 seconds to play to claim the championship outright. Click for more from the Local Sports Journal.
Also noted:
Byron Center 62, Zeeland East 14 – One of the most competitive league races in all of Michigan will go at least in part to Byron Center(7-1), which clinched a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green title while sending East (6-2) into a tie for third.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 20, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 3 – By many accounts, this was closer than the score indicates; West Catholic now owns a share of the O-K Blue title and has given up only 17 points over five league games after holding GRCC (7-1) 18 below its previous season low.
Lowell 41, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 34 – The comeback Red Arrows (8-0) were down 11 this time before coming back to clinch the O-K White championship and send Forest Hills Northern to 4-4.
Wyoming 20, Greenville 13 – The Wolves (5-3) pulled to within a win of clinching the first playoff berth in the program’s five-year history and kept Greenville (5-3) from clinching as well.
8-Player
Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 8, Fife Lake Forest Area 6
Tri-unity (8-0) assuredly will make the MHSAA playoffs for the first time – the Defenders have the second-highest playoff point average in 8-player. This win also gave them the Midwest Central Conference championship outright over second-place Fife Lake Forest Area (6-2), which is now playing for one of the final spots in the postseason field. Click for more from the Cadillac News.
Also noted:
Powers North Central 76, Rapid River 18 – Well, the reigning champion Jets look ready for the playoffs with three straight games with more than 75 points, although Rapid River (5-3) did score more than any opponent had since Sept. 9.
Pickford 44, Cedarville 14 – The first-season 8-player Panthers (7-1) handed Cedarville (6-2) the latter’s second straight loss to move into second in the Bridge Alliance.
Webberville 46, Morrice 14 – The Spartans (6-2) battled through a heart-wrenching Friday to win a key game that may have cemented their spot in the playoff field.
PHOTO: Muskegon Oakridge players celebrate during Friday's West Michigan Conference title-clinching win over Montague. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)