Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2026 Week 7 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 9, 2026

It’s an enjoyable coincidence that several football games we annually forecast to be the most consequential of the regular season generally are played near the end, even as league schedules rotate when teams face off year to year. 

MI Student AidSeason-long anticipation is being fulfilled in many parts of the state this week, as numerous league championships are set to be decided, including by most of the matchups we glance at below.

Games highlighted are Friday unless noted. Tune in to the NFHS Network to watch the majority and follow the MHSAA Scores page for results as they’re submitted.

Bay & Thumb

Fenton (5-1) at Linden (5-1)

Fenton has clinched a share of the Flint Metro League Stripes championship, but Linden has a chance to do the same if it can break a 13-year regular-season Tigers winning streak in the series. Of the teams’ last 16 regular-season meetings, 13 have been decided by eight points or fewer, including Fenton’s 46-41 victory a year ago. Intriguing as well: These two also met in the playoffs in 2022 and 2024, and Linden won both rematches. Both are Division 3 this season. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Macomb Lutheran North (6-0) at Almont (6-0), Ovid-Elsie (3-3) at Montrose (5-1), New Lothrop (5-1) at Chesaning (4-2), Cass City (5-1) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (4-2).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Catholic Central (6-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (5-1)

This matchup of the reigning Division 1 and 2 champions, respectively, has been one of the state’s most anticipated all season. The Shamrocks have won the last six meetings, including 29-14 a year ago. DCC’s closest challenge this fall came a week ago in a 31-12 win over Toledo Central Catholic, while the Eaglets similarly have marched through the Catholic High School League Central since falling to Detroit Martin Luther King 44-42 in Week 2. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Northville (5-1) at Belleville (4-2), Allen Park Cabrini (4-2) at Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (6-0), Detroit Central (5-1) at Detroit Denby (5-1), Brownstown Woodhaven (5-1) at Gibraltar Carlson (6-0).

Mid-Michigan

Saginaw Valley Lutheran (5-1) at Ithaca (6-0)

Valley Lutheran’s 23-22 win in last year’s matchup gave the Chargers the Tri-Valley Conference Blue title and also was Ithaca’s first league loss since 2019. Ithaca certainly has stormed back this fall and already clinched a share of the league championship, shutting out three opponents this season and allowing only 19 points over six games total while scoring at least 47 in all of them. Valley Lutheran will attempt to rebound quickly from a 35-0 loss to Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary last week, but otherwise has been mostly dominant with three shutouts as well. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Harrison (5-1) at Farwell (4-2), Brighton (4-2) at Howell (6-0), Mason (6-0) at Williamston (4-2), Pewamo-Westphalia (6-0) at Saranac (5-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Gladwin (4-2) at Ogemaw Heights (5-1)

Three teams are tied for first in the Jack Pine Conference Division 1 with 3-1 league records, and at least one will end up with a share or more of the championship this weekend. Bullock Creek is the third team in the hunt and defeated Gladwin last week, while Ogemaw’s lone league loss came to Shepherd two weeks ago. A Falcons title would be their fourth straight, including the last three in the JPC1 with last season’s outright thanks to an early 49-14 win over the eventual runner-up Flying Gs. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-3) at East Jordan (5-1), Boyne City (3-3) at Kingsley (6-0), Frankfort (5-1) at Maple City Glen Lake (4-2), Mount Pleasant (6-0) at Traverse City West (3-3).

Southeast & Border

Union City (6-0) at Springport (5-1)

A Union City win would clinch the Chargers a share of the Big 8 Conference title, while Springport would still need one more victory after this weekend to accomplish the same. The Spartans clinched last year’s with a 35-34 victory over Union City in the league finale. A 42-13 Week 3 loss to undefeated Beal City remains Springport’s only regular-season loss over the last two years, while Union City has thrived this fall with a defense giving up only 7.7 points per game. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ypsilanti Community (3-3) at Adrian (5-1), Ida (6-0) at Clinton (5-1), Leslie (4-2) at Hanover-Horton (5-1), Brooklyn Columbia Central (5-1) at Napoleon (5-1).

Southwest Corridor

Lawton (5-1) at Constantine (5-1)

Both are chasing Kalamazoo United with three league games left on the Southwestern Athletic Conference schedule, and the winner of this matchup will have a chance to claim a share of the league title if the Titans slip up. Lawton has taken the last three meetings with Constantine, including in back-to-back weeks last fall with the regular-season finale followed by a Division 7 District Semifinal. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Portage Central (5-1) at Battle Creek Central (3-3), Vicksburg (6-0) at Niles (3-3), Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (4-2) at Stevensville Lakeshore (5-1), Redford Union (4-2) at St. Joseph (5-1).

Upper Peninsula

Menominee (6-0) at Negaunee (4-2)

Arguably the most anticipated matchup in the Upper Peninsula this season will pit Menominee against also potentially undefeated Kingsford next week. But Negaunee can make a mess of that scenario if it can end the Maroons’ 20-game winning streak. Menominee has claimed the last two meetings between this pair, including 40-12 a year ago, but the Miners are just a combined eight points from being undefeated as well this fall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Calumet (4-2) at Escanaba (2-4), Bark River-Harris (5-1) at Hancock (3-3), L’Anse (3-3) at Iron Mountain (4-2), Gaylord (3-3) at Marquette (4-2).

West Michigan

East Kentwood (6-0) at Caledonia (5-1)

This is another one we’ve been waiting for, as these two have separated themselves in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. East Kentwood is seeking its first league title since 2018 and also must still face reigning champion Hudsonville in Week 9. Caledonia earned a 13-7 win over the Eagles two weeks ago, the middle result of three straight victories decided by seven points or fewer. The Falcons have won the last two in this series, including 42-6 in 2025. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-1) at Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills (5-1), Berrien Springs (6-0) at Hopkins (6-0), Zeeland West (5-1) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (4-2), Muskegon Mona Shores (5-1) at Muskegon (3-3).

8-Player

Blanchard Montabella (5-1) at Merrill (6-0)

Montabella has several strong reasons to be dreaming of another run to the Superior Dome next month, and last year’s on the way to finishing Division 1 runner-up included 36-26 and 26-0 victories over Merrill, the first that decided the Mid-State Activities Blue championship. This weekend’s matchup will do the same as both enter 4-0 in league play and full of playmakers who have allowed them to break 50 points regularly. 

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rudyard (5-1) at St. Ignace (5-1), Pickford (5-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (4-2), Pittsford (4-2) at Litchfield (6-0). SATURDAY Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-0).

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PHOTO Ithaca senior quarterback Gibson Rondy (2) releases a pass under pressure during the first half of his team’s Week 3 win over Saginaw Nouvel Catholic Central. (Photo by Kolleth Photography.)