Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review
September 26, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This weekend, we’ll be able to start counting how many teams have punched tickets for this season’s MHSAA playoffs. But here are a few numbers of note before we take that next significant step.
The number of undefeated high school varsity teams in Michigan was cut from 100 to 81 during Week 5. A total of 73 pulled to within a win of qualifying for the postseason. And in more of an oddity, three pairs of teams combined to score 119 points: St. Clair and St. Clair Shores South Lake (71-48 for St. Clair), Flint Kearsley and Swartz Creek (67-52 for Kearsley) and Kalamazoo United and Constantine (62-57 for Kalamazoo). On the other side of the spectrum, rivals Grosse Pointe North and South combined for an 8-4 North victory.
Numbers are great, but what mattered more, of course, were a number of results from all over the state. Check out the most significant from every corner below.
Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth 24, Millington 7
The Eagles (5-0) made it four wins over their last five meetings with their Tri-Valley Conference East rival, this time holding an offense averaging 46 points per game to a single score while getting three touchdown runs from quarterback Jared Davis. Frankenmuth has given up only 27 points over five games this season – although Millington (4-1) did hold the Eagles to a season low on offense as well. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Also noted:
Algonac 19, Croswell-Lexington 14 – The reigning co-champion Muskrats (5-0) more or less eliminated another Blue Water Area Conference contender in Croswell-Lexington (3-2) to keep pace with the other co-champion, Richmond, atop the standings.
Bay City Central 28, Midland 14 – The Wolves (3-2) equaled their win total from last season with their first over Midland (3-2) since a 2006 District Final.
Lake Fenton 35, Montrose 0 – The Blue Devils (5-0) likely brought the Genesee Area Conference Red race down to two teams, with Corunna, by handing the Rams (3-2) their first league loss.
Flint Hamady 44, Durand 21 – Hamady (3-2) knocked Durand (4-1) out of a tie for first in the GAC Blue while pulling only a win behind solo leader New Lothrop after losing to the Hornets in Week 4.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Catholic Central 28, Birmingham Brother Rice 21 (2 OT)
Brother Rice (3-2) may be back from its worst finish in 30 years, but Detroit Catholic Central earned the better track to finishing on top in the Detroit Catholic League Central. The Shamrocks (5-0) watched a 14-0 lead dissolve, but held on for a final stop after scoring the first points of the second overtime. DCC is only 1-0 in the Central, with Orchard Lake St. Mary’s at 2-0 as the other undefeated team in league play. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Trenton 31, Brownstown Woodhaven 28 – The Trojans (5-0) scored the final 17 points against previously-undefeated Woodhaven (4-1) to come back and stay atop the Downriver League standings with co-leader Allen Park up next.
Dearborn 22, Romulus 8 – The Pioneers (4-1) took over first place alone in the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Red with two league games to play and Romulus (4-1) needing help now from teams sitting tied for fourth and sixth.
Detroit Cody 18, Detroit Mumford 12 (3 OT) – After an eight-point loss to Grosse Pointe South on opening night, Cody (4-1) has put together its best start since 2010, doubled last season’s win total and now beaten a Mumford team (3-2) coming off three straight victories.
Utica Eisenhower 16, Romeo 14 – The Eagles (5-0) kept pace with Warren Mott atop the Macomb Area Conference Red by handing reigning MHSAA Division 1 champion Romeo (3-2) its first league loss on a last-second field goal by Anthony Tocco.
Mid-Michigan
Brighton 20, Grand Blanc 19
The Bulldogs (4-1) are alone at 2-0 in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West after getting a late turnover and then game-winning field goal by Rudy Ramirez against the rival Bobcats (4-1). Brighton has mastered the close win early this season, with three victories by six points or fewer. Click for more from the Livingston Daily Press & Argus.
Also noted:
Corunna 48, Flint Beecher 20 – As noted above, the GAC Red race seems down to Corunna (5-0) and Lake Fenton, with the Cavaliers off to their best start since 2002 and Beecher (2-3) now having to win out to guarantee a 10th straight playoff berth.
Laingsburg 25, Fowler 14 – The Wolfpack (5-0) beat Fowler (3-2) for the first time since 2009 to remain tied for first in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference with co-leader Pewamo-Westphalia up next.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 47, Vestaburg 20 – The Irish (2-3) probably aren’t in the mix in the Mid-State Activities Conference after suffering two league losses during an 0-3 start, but they might have taken Vestaburg (4-1) out as well while keeping playoff hopes alive.
Grand Ledge 30, Jackson 19 – The Comets (4-1) scored the final two touchdowns but were a quarter from seeing their lead in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue disappear as Jackson (2-3) scored to take the lead at the start of the fourth.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central 21, Gaylord 20
For the second time in three weeks, Traverse City Central just held on to its perfect record against a Big North Conference rival. After beating West 10-8 two weeks ago, the Trojans returned to league play Friday and drove for the go-ahead score over the final 1:11 to remain in first place in the Big North Conference. Gaylord (2-3) has fallen twice to Central by a combined eight points over their last two meetings. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Gaylord St. Mary 45, Central Lake 12 – The Snowbirds (5-0) have won all of their games by at least 18 points in amassing more victories this season than in any since 2009.
Boyne City 35, Grayling 14 – Hopefully no one counted out the Ramblers (3-2) after an 0-2 start; they are one of three teams still undefeated in Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends league play after handing Grayling (3-2) its first Legends defeat.
Maple City Glen Lake 49, Charlevoix 7 – The Lakers (4-1) left no doubt which team should be ahead in the NMFC Leaders title hunt, handing Charlevoix (4-1) its first loss with the other league favorite, Frankfort, up next.
Roscommon 36, Houghton Lake 34 – Every Roscommon win lately seems notable as the Bucks (5-0) go after a first league title since 2006, this one because Houghton Lake (3-2) is off to its best start since 2011.
Southeast & Border
Morenci 20, Clinton 17 (OT)
Morenci (3-2) has had a lot to celebrate while watching the football program ascend over the last three seasons. But Friday’s conquest had to be among the top handful of highlights. Clinton (4-1) hadn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011 – a run of 40 straight – and aside from an eight-point win over Adrian Madison two weeks ago hadn’t been slowed much this fall despite some pretty significant graduations this spring. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Also noted:
Homer 28, Springport 26 – The reigning Big 8 Conference champion Trojans (3-2) are hanging on tied for second in the league after knocking Springport (4-1) out of a tie for first.
Sand Creek 26, Adrian Madison 18 – The Aggies (5-0) moved into a Tri-County Conference first-place tie with only Ottawa Lake Whiteford thanks to an impressive win over Madison (3-2) and the Clinton upset discussed above.
Adrian 18, Ypsilanti Community 6 – The Maples (3-2) are working back toward their former status as contenders, this week avenging last season’s 45-point loss to Ypsilanti Community (2-2) to earn a third win – their most in a season since 2012.
Milan 42, New Boston Huron 7 – Huron (3-2) looked like it might give Milan (5-0) some trouble in the Huron League, but the Big Reds instead put together their most impressive win as they head into this week’s likely title-decider against Grosse Ile.
Southwest Corridor
Lawton 31, Gobles 21
Lawton won its third straight over the Tigers to set up this week’s matchup with Schoolcraft which could decide the Southwestern Athletic Conference Central championship. Lawton (5-0) ran for more than 400 yards to grind out the win after trailing Gobles (4-1) late in the second quarter. Click for more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Comstock 20, Niles Brandywine 14 – First, Comstock (2-3) breaks a 40-game losing streak last week; this week, the Colts won their second game in a row for the first time since 2010 and against a Brandywine team (1-4) that went 5-4 a year ago.
Kalamazoo United 62, Constantine 57 – Aside from the fact these teams combined to score 119 points, this is the first time either school in the United co-op – Hackett or Christian – had beaten Constantine (3-2) since 2008; Kalamazoo also is 3-2.
Climax-Scotts 20, Bark River-Harris 8 – The Panthers (5-0) got their closest competition this season from the unfamiliar Broncos (2-3) but still managed to continue a defensive effort that’s given up 31 points over five games.
Portage Central 10, Battle Creek Lakeview 7 – The Mustangs (4-1) needed and got a nice bounce-back from last week’s loss to Traverse City Central by handing Lakeview (3-1) its first loss.
Upper Peninsula
Norway 14, Ishpeming 0
Norway is enjoying one the best turnaround seasons in all of Michigan, and beating Ishpeming for the first time since 2009 is the topper so far. The Hematites had defeated the Knights by a combined 86-0 over the last two seasons, but Norway (5-0) now has more wins than in any season since 2010 – and will play Negaunee this week in what could be the deciding game in the Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference race. Ishpeming (2-2) has two losses in a season for the first time since 2011, but with an eight-game schedule needs only five wins to qualify automatically for the playoffs. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Gladstone 46, Marquette 45 – The Braves (2-3) squeaked out their first win over Marquette since 2009 and after falling to the Redmen (1-4) by 30 a year ago.
Calumet 52, Hancock 17 – The Copper Kings’ big win over third-place Hancock (3-2) puts Calumet (4-1) firmly atop the West-Peninsula Athletic Conference standings.
Negaunee 19, Gwinn 12 – Add Gwinn (3-2) to an impressive list of challengers Negaunee (5-0) has taken down this season; next up are undefeated Norway and rival Ishpeming.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 44, Newberry 29 – The Lakes (5-0) still have three league games to play and Newberry (4-1) only one, but Lake Linden-Hubbell is in a semi-comfortable position in the Mid-Eastern Conference thanks to this key win.
West Michigan
Montague 41, Whitehall 20
This one wasn’t as close as Montague’s one-point win over Whitehall (4-1) a year ago, but could turn out just as significant for the Wildcats (5-0) as they look to repeat as West Michigan Conference champions. Montague’s next two games are against teams that are a combined 2-8 before they face rival Muskegon Oakridge in the final league game and a rematch of the title-decider in 2015. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Hamilton 42, Holland 26 – The Hawkeyes’ resurgence continues; Hamilton is 5-0 after going 4-23 over the last three seasons combined.
Byron Center 24, Zeeland West 14 – Another nice run by the Bulldogs (4-1) just got a bonus as they handed reigning Division 4 champion Zeeland West (3-2) its second straight loss.
Grand Rapids Christian 41, Cedar Springs 16 – The Eagles (5-0) got a solid win over Cedar Springs (3-2) during a one-week break in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold schedule and heading into this week’s tilt with co-leader East Grand Rapids.
Wyoming Kelloggsville 36, Grandville Calvin Christian 28 – The Rockets (4-1) broke a five-game losing streak to Calvin Christian (2-3) to remain tied for first in the O-K Silver after winning three games last season.
8-Player
Camden-Frontier 22, Battle Creek St. Philip 0
Camden-Frontier (4-0) is enjoying a successful move to 8-player, breaking a 19-game losing streak on opening night. But this had to be a surprise; St. Philip is the reigning MHSAA runner-up and hadn’t lost a regular-season game since Week 9 of 2014 – or been shut out since making the move to 8-player in 2012. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
Also noted:
New Haven Merritt 68, Burton Madison 48 – Merritt (5-0) has enjoyed a nice run over the last three seasons, but this easily has been the Mustangs’ most dominating start – and also-undefeated Owendale-Gagetown is up next.
Morrice 26, Mayville 20 (OT) – The Orioles (3-2) hung on for what likely will be a key win as they build their playoff case; Mayville was 5-4 in 11-player only a season ago.
PHOTO: Morrice earned a key 8-player win in overtime over Mayville last week. (Click to see more from Varsity Monthly.)