Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 12, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Streaks are made to be broken, it is said. And that being the case, Week 3 saw plenty of the inevitable all over Michigan high school football fields.
See below for quick details on some of the most intriguing results, including a number of teams adding to their best starts in a number of seasons, and a few breaking streaks by beating opponents for the first time in more than a decade.
Bay & Thumb
Lake Fenton 61, Flint Beecher 14
This round of one of the Flint area’s top rivalries goes to Lake Fenton, which fell to Beecher by a point last year (and 38 in 2014) but is definitely one of a few favorites now in the Genesee Area Conference Red. The Blue Devils (3-0) unloaded their highest point total since 2012, with Beecher giving up its most points since 2004. Click for more from the Tri-County Times.
Also noted:
Alma 26, Saginaw Swan Valley 0 – The Panther's first win over Swan Valley (1-2) since 2011 corresponded with Alma’s first 3-0 start since 2012.
Fenton 28, Ortonville-Brandon 22 – The Tigers (1-2) were looking for a jumpstart as they pursue another Flint Metro League title, but Brandon (2-1) has shown it may be the team to take advantage if Fenton does fall again along the way.
Grand Blanc 42, Plymouth 27 – The Bobcats’ play to get back into the playoffs after two seasons away definitely will get a bump from starting 3-0 for a second straight season; Plymouth must bounce back from 1-2 to keep its three-year playoff streak intact.
Richmond 29, Croswell-Lexington 26 – Reigning Blue Water Area Conference champion Richmond (2-1) needed a late score to get past the Pioneers (2-1) for the fourth straight season.
Greater Detroit
Clarkston 38, Oxford 7
The Oakland Activities Association Red is sorting itself out quite a bit already this season, with preseason contender Clarkston losing to Southfield Arts and Technology in Week 2. But the Wolves (2-1) stormed back by downing an Oxford team that while 1-2 did open with a win over reigning Division 1 champion Romeo. Clarkston’s top three ground gainers – led by Michael Fluegel and his 114 yards – all averaged at least 7.8 yards per carry. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Detroit Mumford 26, Detroit Collegiate Prep 14 – A nine-point loss to still-undefeated Detroit U-D Jesuit in Week 1 is looking even better for Mumford, which moved to 2-1 by beating a Collegiate Prep team (0-3) that went 9-1 last fall.
Walled Lake Western 48, Northville 34 – The Warriors’ 3-0 start has now included three wins over 2015 playoff teams, and Northville (2-1) didn’t lose during the regular season last year.
Rochester 38, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 32 (OT) – The Falcons' move to 1-2 gave them as many wins as last season and 2014 as well, and with an impressive one against a Notre Dame Prep team that is 2-1 and went 8-3 last fall.
Dearborn Fordson 34, Belleville 25 – The Tractors (3-0) avenged a six-point loss last season to the Tigers (1-2), who went on to win the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Blue title while Fordson was among those tied for second.
Mid-Michigan
Bath 17, Fowler 14
Before Friday, Bath coach Matt Stephens was among the few on his sideline who had had football success against Fowler, having quarterbacked Fulton teams that beat the Eagles during the mid-2000s. But his Bees – which won a combined two games over the last two seasons – downed Fowler (2-1) for the first time since 1989 to move to 2-1 this fall. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Laingsburg 27, Dansville 20 – The Wolfpack (3-0) broke a four-game skid against the Aggies (1-2), and with the Fowler loss as well suddenly look like the team to challenge favorite Pewamo-Westphalia in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference.
Breckenridge 40, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 34 – After posting a best record in more than a decade in 2014, the Huskies stepped back to winless a year ago; fast forward and they’re 3-0 with a win over a perennial winner in the Irish, who are 0-3 but also started that way on the way to 6-4 last fall.
Eaton Rapids 42, Ionia 41 (OT) – The Capital Area Activities Conference White looks even stronger than usual, which made handing Ionia (2-1) a first loss especially key as Eaton Rapids (2-1) looks to bounce back from 4-5 a year ago.
Mason 31, St. Johns 15 – The Redwings (0-3) may be struggling out of the gate, but that doesn’t take away from a Mason 3-0 start that’s seen its defense give up 22 points total so far.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central 10, Traverse City West 8
As usual, the "Patriot Game" between these neighbors turned into a classic – Central downed West for the third straight season, but four of the last five meetings between these two have been decided by seven points or fewer. Although both entered the game averaging at least 40 points per, defense and turnovers were the narrative at Thirlby Field. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
East Jordan 34, Central Lake 6 – The Red Devils are 3-0 after winning two games last season and none in 2014, and this one was especially impressive with Central Lake (1-2) a playoff team the last two seasons.
Oscoda 22, Whittemore-Prescott 14 (OT) – The Owls (2-1) bounced back from a five-point loss last week against AuGres-Sims to avenge last season’s 27-point defeat to the Cardinals (2-1).
AuGres-Sims 50, Hillman 32 – While this is starting to look like a down season after two straight league titles for the Tigers (0-3), it’s also starting to look like one of offensive outbursts for the Wolverines (3-0), who have scored 128 points.
Roscommon 26, Sanford Meridian 14 – The Bucks have to be enjoying their first 3-0 start since 2000, and especially after downing reigning Jack Pine Conference champion Meridian (1-2).
Southeast & Border
Parma Western 32, Marshall 30
It was only a few seasons ago that Parma Western couldn’t be counted on to do much in a game like this Interstate 8 Athletic Conference opener. But the Panthers (1-2) surely learned something from their early struggles this season as they avenged losses of one and then 28 points over the last two to Marshall (1-2). Parma Western made the playoffs in 2015 for the first time ever, and this nearly was a must-win for the Panthers to do the same this fall. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Clinton 28, Adrian Madison 20 – Make that Clinton regular-season win streak 39 straight with another 3-0 start, but Madison (2-1) again gave the Redskins one of the rare tests of this run.
Hudson 26, Brooklyn Columbia Central 14 – The Tigers’ turnaround has thrown them into the conversation again in the Lenawee County Athletic Association, as Hudson (3-0) is now one win shy of last year’s total after beating reigning league runner-up Columbia Central (2-1).
Temperance Bedford 22, Ann Arbor Pioneer 21 – The Mules (3-0) reversed a six-point loss to Pioneer (0-3) last season and have now nearly also reversed last year’s 0-4 start.
Springport 48, Union City 26 – The Spartans are 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and have avenged two of last year’s five losses, handing Union City (2-1) its first defeat after falling to the Chargers by 16 a year ago.
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Harper Creek 24, Jackson Lumen Christi 14
The Beavers’ bounce-back season continued as their 3-0 start gives them as many wins as all of 2015, and the victory over Lumen Christi (1-2) was their first since the formation of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference. One game into the I8 schedule, Harper Creek is the only undefeated team in a league with at least four that would scare most area opponents. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Coldwater 17, Battle Creek Pennfield 6 – Reigning I8 champion Coldwater (2-1) kept pace a win behind Harper Creek after falling to Marshall in Week 2; Pennfield also is 1-1 in the league and 2-1 overall.
St. Joseph 27, Portage Northern 23 – This was the sixth straight time the Bears (3-0) and the Huskies (1-2) played to within 10 points of each other, with St. Joseph winning five of the recent nail-biters.
South Haven 28, Plainwell 19 – The Rams have won only three games each of the last two seasons and no more than that since 2008, but are 2-1 having downed a Plainwell team (1-2) that has made the playoffs the last five years.
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic 20, Niles Brandywine 6 – One of the toughest losses of two seasons of ups and downs for Lake Michigan Catholic was a 57-18 defeat to Brandywine last fall; this one put Brandywine at 1-2 and the Lakers at 3-0 after they won two games total in 2015.
Upper Peninsula
Newberry 48, Bark River-Harris 34
As expected, these Mid-Eastern Conference contenders combined to put up plenty of points. But Newberry (3-0) continued to put up more, running its total to 154 over three games and putting itself in fine position in the league standings by downing the reigning co-champion. Bark River-Harris (2-1) had beaten the Indians in two straight, including 56-34 a year ago. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Iron Mountain 48, Iron River West Iron County 21 – The Mountaineers’ great start keeps picking up steam as they’re now 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and with a second straight win over the rival Wykons (1-2).
Ishpeming Westwood 18, L’Anse 16 – The Patriots (1-2) got a much-needed win as they go for a third-straight playoff berth but now head into Mid-Peninsula Conference play; the Purple Hornets (0-3) have a similarly hard road coming up.
Escanaba 27, Gaylord 13 – The Eskymos are 3-0 for the first time since 2010, with Gaylord (1-2) the second straight 2015 playoff team to fall to the Great Northern Conference contenders.
Felch North Dickinson 24, Munising 6 – The Nordics are hoping to climb back to their elite status from the start of this decade, and at 2-1 they’re only a win shy of equaling their total of both of the last two seasons; they’ll meet Munising (0-3) again in Week 6.
West Michigan
Zeeland West 38, Grand Rapids West Catholic 22
The battle of reigning MHSAA champions went to the Division 4 winner, as West (3-0) continued its 28-game regular-season winning streak with one of its most impressive over a run that’s been especially stellar this fall. Adding in the reigning Division 5 champion Falcons (2-1), West has beaten teams that went a combined 28-7 in 2015. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Leroy Pine River 34, Beal City 7 – The Bucks (2-1) had last beaten Beal City (1-2) in 2000 and have helped the always-powerful Aggies to their toughest start since that year.
Lowell 34, East Grand Rapids 7 – Even when it’s not much of a game, Lowell (3-0) taking on East Grand Rapids (1-2) is still going to be a game of statewide interest.
Rockford 37, Muskegon Mona Shores 23 – The Rams’ 21-season playoff streak got a needed jolt; beating Mona Shores (1-2) is a much better way for Rockford (1-2) to enter the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red schedule.
Hamilton 34, Zeeland East 21 – The Hawkeyes (3-0) are soaring after winning a combined four games over the last three seasons; handing annually-strong East (2-1) a loss makes the start even more impressive.
8-Player
Rapid River 36, Webberville 34 (OT)
Rapid River made a long drive south for one of the most intriguing nonleague matchups of the 8-player season and headed back across the bridge at 2-1 after edging the home Spartans in overtime. Webberville had given up only 26 points over its first two games. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Engadine 42, Pickford 32 – The Eagles also are 3-0 for the first time since 2011 after finding openings in a Pickford defense that had given up only six points over its first two games of a 2-1 start.
Owendale-Gagetown 70, Flint International Academy 50 – No team statewide is scoring like the Bulldogs (3-0), who went over 70 points for the second straight week – although first-year Flint International (1-2) scored the most O-G has given up since 2013.
PHOTO: A Breckenridge ball carrier works to beat a Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart defensive player to the goal line during the Huskies' Week 3 win. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)