Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
1st & Goal: 2024 Finals in Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
December 4, 2024
The story of the 50th MHSAA Football Playoffs may have been driven as much by the run-up to the Finals of these last two weekends as by those 10 championship games themselves.
But those games at Ford Field and the Superior Dome left us with their shares of unforgettable moments as we celebrated another special moment of this overall 100th MHSAA anniversary.
Goodrich, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Millington celebrated championships for the first time. Jackson Lumen Christi moved into first all-time with its 14th Finals title. The average margin of victory may not have been close this time around – winners did so by nearly 24 points, and we had just one single-digit game out of 10 – but consider as well the excitement generated on the way to these concluding weekends. Of the 20 teams ranked Nos. 1 or 2 by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association at the end of the regular season, only five reached championship games – and only three won them.
We had senior standouts rewrite the scoring side of our 11-player Finals record book, star quarterbacks face off in an 8-player classic, and an uncountable number of unforgettable moments as nearly 45,000 fans traveled to witness the beginnings of our latest trophy celebrations.
MHSAA.com once again covered all 10 championship games, with quick recaps and links to those stories below followed by notations of performances entered into the MHSAA Finals record books and a report on some of the main storylines to emerge as those championships were being decided.
Finals in Review
11-Player Division 1: Detroit Cass Tech 42, Hudsonville 20 – Read
The Technicians won their fourth championship and first since 2016 by shutting down Hudsonville’s powerful rushing attack and dominating the air with freshman quarterback Donald Tabron II completing 15 of 20 passes for 176 yards and three touchdowns to arguably the top receiving group in the state. Cass Tech built a 35-0 lead by a minute into the second half.
11-Player Division 2: Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 35, Byron Center 19 – Read
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s also won its first championship since 2016 with a mostly second-half burst after trailing 13-7 until the final minutes of the second quarter. Darrin Jones and Bryson Williams both ran for more than 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the Eaglets also shut down a Byron Center offense that averaged nearly 40 points per game entering championship weekend.
11-Player Division 3: Zeeland West 42, Detroit Martin Luther King 22 – Read
Paced by a record-setting performance by running back Keaton Hendricks, Zeeland West and its T-formation attack defeated a fourth top-seven ranked team during this playoffs. The Dux presented a look King hadn’t seen in years and turned it into not only a 352-295 total yardage advantage but also a 30:10-17:50 edge in time of possession as it piled up points against a King defense that had given up just 13.6 per game on the way to the Final.
11-Player Division 4: Goodrich 35, Niles 6 – Read
Goodrich won this matchup of finalists seeking their first championship, dominating the line of scrimmage to the tune of a 424-96 advantage in total yardage. Chase Burnett did the most damage of a talented Martians group of playmakers, running for 157 yards and a pair of scores while their defense locked down a Niles attack that averaged 41 points per game entering this matchup.
11-Player Division 5: Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 42, Frankenmuth 7 – Read
This also featured a pair of first-title hopefuls, and Notre Dame Prep took one home coached by Pat Fox, who grew up in and has since moved back to Frankenmuth. Quarterback Sam Stowe starred for the Fighting Irish, throwing four touchdown passes as NDP took a 35-0 lead into the fourth quarter and frustrated a Frankenmuth attack that had outscored its opponents by 31 points per game.
11-Player Division 6: Jackson Lumen Christi 56, Lansing Catholic 18 – Read
Lumen Christi’s record-setting win came on a record-setting performance by running back Kadale Williams, who ended up with a combined 590 yards and eight rushing touchdowns over his last two Finals appearances after also carrying the ball once in the Titans’ 2022 championship game. Lumen’s title was its third-straight with the first two of this string coming in Division 7
11-Player Division 7: Millington 24, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 0 – Read
Millington finished its first championship run as also the only undefeated 11-player champion this season. The Cardinals were physically dominant as they posted their fifth shutout and lowered their points allowed per game average to 7.7. In this win, they allowed just 3.2 yards per carry and forced three turnovers, limiting an SMCC offense averaging 36 points per game entering the weekend.
11-Player Division 8: Beal City 43, Riverview Gabriel Richard 14 – Read
Physical play and a strong running game were the story of this championship decider as well as Beal City won its third title and first since 2009 behind 315 rushing yards. The Aggies strung together unanswered runs of 21 and 17 points and held Gabriel Richard scoreless for the final 22 minutes of the first half and final 12 of the second.
8-Player Division 1: Deckerville 30, Pickford 28 – Read
Pickford led until the opening seconds of the fourth quarter as Deckerville came back from a double-digit third-quarter deficit to win its first championship since 2012. Both teams entered the matchup undefeated, and both relied on star quarterbacks who wrote their names into the Finals record book.
8-Player Division 2: Crystal Falls Forest Park 42, Morrice 20 – Read
The Trojans played in their 15th championship game and won for the fifth time after taking a 28-0 lead into the break and running for 184 of their total 291 yards during the first two quarters. Coach Brian Fabbri, who had played for Forest Park in 11-Player Finals in 2004 and 2005, became the fourth title-winning coach in program history.
Records Report
Zeeland West senior Keaton Hendricks scored a Finals record six touchdowns – to also give him a Finals-record 36 points. He rushed for three and caught three scores, and the three receiving touchdowns tied for second-most on that list.
Before Hendricks’ accomplishments a day later, Jackson Lumen Christi senior Kadale Williams briefly sat atop four record book lists. He remains the record holder with 314 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns and sits tied for second with five total touchdowns and 30 points scored in a championship game. His 314 rushing yards also put him on the total yardage list.
Junior quarterback Sam Stowe directed Notre Dame’s offense during the championship drive, reaching the record book with 293 yards passing and four touchdowns through the air including one score on one of the longest completions in Finals history – 87 yards to Billy Collins. Stowe also ran for eight yards, making the total yardage list with 301.
Lansing Catholic senior quarterback Alex Fernandez earned multiple record listings with 284 passing yards, 21 passing completions and 366 total yards; he also ran for 82. Senior receiver Xavier Luea tied for the fifth-most receptions in a championship game, pulling in 10 for the Cougars.
Four kickers reached the record book list for most extra points in one game. Jackson Lumen Christi senior Andy Salazar tied two others for the record with eight extra points, making all eight kicks he took in the Division 6 Final. Notre Dame Prep junior Owen Fulsher made six extra points in six attempts, and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s freshman Beckett Kiefer, Beal City senior Kyle Martin and Goodrich senior Landon Williams all made the list with five extra points in five tries.
As noted above, Jackson Lumen Christi set a record for championships with 14, breaking its tie with Farmington Hills Harrison (which closed at the end of the 2018-19 school year). Lumen scored 42 points during the first half of its Division 6 win, tying for third-most in one half, and its 56 total points tied for second-most for a full title game. The Titans also tied a record with seven rushing touchdowns total and made the list – with Niles in Division 4 as well – for fewest pass attempts, with three.
Lansing Catholic made the team list for most pass completions with 21, and Notre Dame Prep made the team list for passing yards with 293.
As seems to make sense with some of our winning teams’ offensive successes, four made the list of those to not punt during a Final – Zeeland West, Beal City, Goodrich and Jackson Lumen Christi. West also combined with Detroit Martin Luther King, and Beal City with Riverview Gabriel Richard, to make the list for fewest punts by both opposing teams combined. Both pairs had just one in their games.
Although in defeat, Pickford senior quarterback Tommy Storey was one of the stars of the 8-Player Finals, making lists with four total touchdowns, 304 rushing yards (ranking second), four rushing touchdowns and 312 total yards. His opposing quarterback, Deckerville senior Hunter Garza, also made multiple lists with 323 total yards and 225 rushing.
Crystal Falls Forest Park sophomore Dietrich Rasner made the extra points list, tying for second with six in six attempts, and Morrice senior Joel Fisher had the second-longest punt return in 8-Player Finals history bringing one back 85 yards for a score.
Pickford and Deckerville both reached 300 yards rushing in the Division 1 game, Pickford with 322 and Deckerville just missing the record book yardage list but setting a record with 60 rushing attempts. Deckerville also made the first downs list with 21.
Crystal Falls Forest Park made a rushing list, with six touchdowns running the ball. The Trojans also set a record by not allowing Morrice to gain a yard passing – with the Orioles becoming the first 8-player team to not complete a pass in a Final, attempting just four.
Stories Behind the Scores
Lumen Legend: Of Jackson Lumen Christi’s now-14 Finals championships, 12 came under the leadership of coach Herb Brogan, who took over the program in 1980 after Jim Crowley led the Titans to titles in 1977 and 1979. They finished this season 13-1, putting Brogan’s career record at 421-96. He’s third in football coaching wins in Michigan high school history, trailing Al Fracassa (Royal Oak Shrine Catholic/Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice) by nine and John Herrington (Farmington Hills Harrison) by 22. Brogan’s all-time winning percentage of .814 has him fourth all-time on that list for coaches with at least 200 victories.
Welcome to the Finals: Of the 20 teams that played in championship games (11 and 8-player combined), only Lumen Christi was returning from 2023. Compare that to two years ago, when we had four repeat champions, or last year with six returning teams and two repeat champs. Over the last two weekends, five teams played in championship games for the first time, and as mentioned above, three celebrated their first titles.
Return of the Rush: Wide-open pass-heavy offenses have been a trend going on two decades. But the ground game may be making a comeback. Lumen Christi’s Williams set the individual rushing record in his team’s win over Lansing Catholic, and it’s fair to consider the offenses of at least 15 of the 20 finalists (11 and 8-player combined) as rush-based. Six teams reached 300 yards rushing in championship games, with Lumen leading the way with 435 on 47 carries.
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PHOTOS (Top) This collage shows action photos from all 10 MHSAA Finals played this season. (2) Goodrich's Chase Burnett, middle, celebrates his touchdown with two of his linemen. (3) Forest Park and Morrice players get tangled up jumping near the goal line to pull down a pass. (4) Lumen Christi's Kadale Williams (1) works to get to the edge against Lansing Catholic. (11-player photos by Hockey Weekly Action Photos; 8-player photos by Cara Kamps.)